Sheet1

t y y(t-1) y(t-2) y(t-3) y(t-4) y(t-5)

1 7665
2 8570 7665
3 11172 8570 7665
4 14150 11172 8570 7665
5 8465 14150 11172 8570 7665
6 9970 8465 14150 11172 8570 7665
7 12972 9970 8465 14150 11172 8570
8 15350 12972 9970 8465 14150 11172
9 9565 15350 12972 9970 8465 14150
10 10870 9565 15350 12972 9970 8465
11 13972 10870 9565 15350 12972 9970
12 16350 13972 10870 9565 15350 12972
13 9965 16350 13972 10870 9565 15350
14 11470 9965 16350 13972 10870 9565
15 14372 11470 9965 16350 13972 10870
16 16850 14372 11470 9965 16350 13972
17 10565 16850 14372 11470 9965 16350
18 12070 10565 16850 14372 11470 9965
19 14972 12070 10565 16850 14372 11470
20 17350 14972 12070 10565 16850 14372

lag r
1 0.2022705797 1.2
2 -0.3964236926 1
3 0.0434511314
0.8
4 0.9910290375
5 0.1320041792 0.6
6 -0.521565746 0.4
7 -0.0359218828
8 0.9800366422 0.2
9 0.1194044641 0
10 -0.5766116122 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
-0.2
11 -0.0915367139
12 0.9869237701 -0.4
13 0.1920064054 -0.6
14 -0.5871051281
-0.8
15 -0.1619176217

Page 1
 Sheet1

y(t-6) y(t-7) y(t-8) y(t-9) y(t-10) y(t-11) y(t-12)

7665
8570 7665
11172 8570 7665
14150 11172 8570 7665
8465 14150 11172 8570 7665
9970 8465 14150 11172 8570 7665
12972 9970 8465 14150 11172 8570 7665
15350 12972 9970 8465 14150 11172 8570
9565 15350 12972 9970 8465 14150 11172
10870 9565 15350 12972 9970 8465 14150
13972 10870 9565 15350 12972 9970 8465
16350 13972 10870 9565 15350 12972 9970
9965 16350 13972 10870 9565 15350 12972
11470 9965 16350 13972 10870 9565 15350

20000
18000
16000
14000
12000
r
10000

10 12 14 16 8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0 5 10 15 20

Page 2
 Sheet1

y(t-13) y(t-14) y(t-15)

7665
8570 7665
11172 8570 7665
14150 11172 8570
8465 14150 11172
9970 8465 14150
12972 9970 8465

10 15 20 25

Page 3
 Additive

t y 4th mean 2nd mean seasonal component

1 7665
2 8570
3 11172 10389.25 10489.25 682.75
4 14150 10589.25 10764.25 3385.75
5 8465 10939.25 11164.25 -2699.25
6 9970 11389.25 11539.25 -1569.25
7 12972 11689.25 11826.75 1145.25
8 15350 11964.25 12076.75 3273.25
9 9565 12189.25 12314.25 -2749.25
10 10870 12439.25 12564.25 -1694.25
11 13972 12689.25 12739.25 1232.75
12 16350 12789.25 12864.25 3485.75
13 9965 12939.25 12989.25 -3024.25
14 11470 13039.25 13101.75 -1631.75
15 14372 13164.25 13239.25 1132.75
16 16850 13314.25 13389.25 3460.75
17 10565 13464.25 13539.25 -2974.25
18 12070 13614.25 13676.75 -1606.75
19 14972 13739.25
20 17350

t y si T+E T(t) T(t)+si

1 7665 -2852.375 10517.375 10403.76 7551.385
2 8570 -1616.125 10186.125 10606.97 8990.845
3 11172 1057.75 10114.25 10810.18 11867.93
4 14150 3410.75 10739.25 11013.39 14424.14
5 8465 -2852.375 11317.375 11216.6 8364.225
6 9970 -1616.125 11586.125 11419.81 9803.685
7 12972 1057.75 11914.25 11623.02 12680.77
8 15350 3410.75 11939.25 11826.23 15236.98
9 9565 -2852.375 12417.375 12029.44 9177.065
10 10870 -1616.125 12486.125 12232.65 10616.525
11 13972 1057.75 12914.25 12435.86 13493.61
12 16350 3410.75 12939.25 12639.07 16049.82
13 9965 -2852.375 12817.375 12842.28 9989.905
14 11470 -1616.125 13086.125 13045.49 11429.365
15 14372 1057.75 13314.25 13248.7 14306.45
16 16850 3410.75 13439.25 13451.91 16862.66
17 10565 -2852.375 13417.375 13655.12 10802.745
18 12070 -1616.125 13686.125 13858.33 12242.205
19 14972 1057.75 13914.25 14061.54 15119.29
20 17350 3410.75 13939.25 14264.75 17675.5
12334.25

Page 4
 Additive

prediction
21 -2852.375 14467.96 11615.585
22 -1616.125 14671.17 13055.045
23 1057.75 14874.38 15932.13
24 3410.75 15077.59 18488.34

Page 5
 Additive

1 season 2 season 3 season 4 season

- - 682.75 3385.75
-2699.25 -1569.25 1145.25 3273.25
-2749.25 -1694.25 1232.75 3485.75
-3024.25 -1631.75 1132.75 3460.75
-2974.25 -1606.75 - -

sum
SI MEAN -2861.75 -1625.5 1048.375 3401.375 -37.5
CORRECTED SI -2852.375 -1616.125 1057.75 3410.75 0

epsileon ESS square TSS square ESS 1639153.4458 16000

113.615 12908.3682250004 21801895.563 TSS 165522983.75
-420.845 177110.514024999 14169578.063 R 0.9900971248 14000
-695.93 484318.564899998 1350825.0625
-274.14 75152.7395999997 3296948.0625
12000
100.775 10155.6006250003 14971095.563
166.315 27660.6792250002 5589678.0625
10000
291.23 84814.9129000008 406725.0625
113.02 12773.5204000001 9094748.0625
387.935 150493.564225001 7668745.5625 8000
253.475 64249.5756250002 2144028.0625
478.39 228856.992100001 2682225.0625 6000
300.18 90108.0324000002 16126248.063
-24.905 620.259024999942 5613345.5625 4000 f(x) = 203
40.635 1651.20322500002 746928.0625 R² = 0.943
65.55 4296.80250000014 4152425.0625 2000
-12.66 160.275599999996 20391998.063
-237.745 56522.6850249995 3130245.5625 0
-172.205 29654.562025 69828.0625 0 5
-147.29 21694.3440999997 6957725.0625
-325.5 105950.25 25157748.063

Page 6
 Additive

k -9.375

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000 Column D
Linear (Column D)
6000

4000 f(x) = 203.209586466165 x + 10200.5493421053

R² = 0.943671226553424
2000

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Page 7
 Multiplicative

t y 4th mean 2nd mean seasonal component

1 7665
2 8570
3 11172 10389.25 10489.25 1.06509044974617
4 14150 10589.25 10764.25 1.31453654458044
5 8465 10939.25 11164.25 0.758223794701838
6 9970 11389.25 11539.25 0.864007626145547
7 12972 11689.25 11826.75 1.09683556344727
8 15350 11964.25 12076.75 1.2710373237833
9 9565 12189.25 12314.25 0.776742391944292
10 10870 12439.25 12564.25 0.865153112999184
11 13972 12689.25 12739.25 1.09676786310026
12 16350 12789.25 12864.25 1.27096410595254
13 9965 12939.25 12989.25 0.767172854475817
14 11470 13039.25 13101.75 0.87545556891255
15 14372 13164.25 13239.25 1.08555998262741
16 16850 13314.25 13389.25 1.25847228186792
17 10565 13464.25 13539.25 0.780323873183522
18 12070 13614.25 13676.75 0.882519604438189
19 14972 13739.25
20 17350

t y si y/si T(t) T(t)*si

1 7665 0.769228092 9964.534681 10299.47 7922.6416564
2 8570 0.8702141693 9848.1503775 10509.42 9145.4461952
3 11172 1.0841078059 10305.248185 10719.37 11620.952692
4 14150 1.2764499328 11085.432837 10929.32 13950.729779
5 8465 0.769228092 11004.538301 11139.27 8568.639408
6 9970 0.8702141693 11456.949739 11349.22 9876.2520546
7 12972 1.0841078059 11965.599665 11559.17 12531.386427
8 15350 1.2764499328 12025.540216 11769.12 15022.692433
9 9565 0.769228092 12434.543278 11979.07 9214.6371597
10 10870 0.8702141693 12491.1779 12189.02 10607.057914
11 13972 1.0841078059 12888.017154 12398.97 13441.820163
12 16350 1.2764499328 12808.963031 12608.92 16094.655086
13 9965 0.769228092 12954.545088 12818.87 9860.6349113
14 11470 0.8702141693 13180.663341 13028.82 11337.863773
15 14372 1.0841078059 13256.98415 13238.77 14352.253898
16 16850 1.2764499328 13200.674439 13448.72 17166.61774
17 10565 0.769228092 13734.547802 13658.67 10506.632663
18 12070 0.8702141693 13870.148781 13868.62 12068.669633
19 14972 1.0841078059 13810.434643 14078.57 15262.687633
20 17350 1.2764499328 13592.385846 14288.52 18238.580394
12334.25

Page 8
 Multiplicative

1 season 2 season 3 season 4 season

- - 1.0650904497 1.3145365446
0.7582237947 0.8640076261 1.0968355634 1.2710373238
0.7767423919 0.865153113 1.0967678631 1.270964106
0.7671728545 0.8754555689 1.0855599826 1.2584722819
0.7803238732 0.8825196044 - -

SI MEAN 0.7706157286 0.8717839781 1.0860634647 1.278752564

CORRECTED SI 0.769228092 0.8702141693 1.0841078059 1.2764499328

ESS square TSS square ESS 2504241.0884 16000

66379.223104 21801895.5625 TSS 165522983.75
331138.32361 14169578.0625 R 0.984870735
14000
201558.51945 1350825.0625
39708.620845 3296948.0625
10741.126894 14971095.5625 12000
8788.6772627 5589678.0625
194140.32053 406725.0625 10000
107130.24349 9094748.0625
122754.1199 7668745.5625 8000
69138.540586 2144028.0625
281090.65995 2682225.0625 6000
65201.024887 16126248.0625
10892.071742 5613345.5625 4000 f(x) = 209.946153
17459.982381 746928.0625 R² = 0.928723970
389.90854174 4152425.0625
2000
100246.79327 20391998.0625
3406.7460375 3130245.5625
1.7698769342 69828.0625 0
84499.300265 6957725.0625 0 5
789575.11576 25157748.0625

Page 9
 Multiplicative

sum 4.0072157355
k 0.9981993144

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000 Column D
Linear (Column D)
6000

4000 f(x) = 209.946153352444 x + 10089.5193625493

R² = 0.928723970083807

2000

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

Page 10