PATRIZIA Immobilien AG

PATRIZIA Brohaus | Fuggerstrae 26 | 86150 Augsburg | T +49 821 50910-000 | F +49 821 50910-999 | immobilien@patrizia.ag | www.patrizia.ag
An outside view
of the Dutch
housing market
June 18
th
2014
Dr. Marcus Cieleback
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
How Germans believe the Dutch housing market looks like!
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
But now, lets get serious
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Tenure split in Europe
Source: cecodhas
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
DE DK FR BE SE AT PT FI IT IE PL NL ES UK
Private rental Social rental Ownership other
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Germany and the Netherlands: Same performance, differing risks
DE
FR
UK
DK
FI
NL
SE
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
14 %
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
T
o
t
a
l

R
e
t
u
r
n

V
o
l
a
t
i
l
i
t
y

Owner occupancy rate
DE
FR
UK
DK
FI
NL
SE
DE
FR
Uk
DK
FI
NL
SE
R = 0.0711
R = 0.3959
0 %
2 %
4 %
6 %
8 %
10 %
12 %
40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
T
o
t
a
l

R
e
t
u
r
n

p
.
a
.

Owner occupancy rate
5-Jahres Betrachtung 10 Jahres Betrachtung
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Diverging house price developments
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
FN
FR
DE
NW
PT
SD
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Q1
2004
Q1
2005
Q1
2006
Q1
2007
Q1
2008
Q1
2009
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
DK
IR
IT
NL
ES
UK
2008 Q1 =100 2008 Q1 =100
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Construction sector is growing, slowly
Source: PATRIZIA, euroconstruct
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
DE NO FR UK PL NL BE SE HU AT CH FI DK IE IT ES PT CZ
M
i
o
.

Stock Completions (2010-2012) as % of Stock p.a. Completions (2013-2015) as % of Stock p.a.
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Investments in residential properties are attractive!
-2.0 %
-1.0 %
0.0 %
1.0 %
2.0 %
3.0 %
4.0 %
5.0 %
6.0 %
7.0 %
8.0 %
-2.0 %
-1.0 %
0.0 %
1.0 %
2.0 %
3.0 %
4.0 %
5.0 %
6.0 %
7.0 %
8.0 %
DE UK AT SE ES NO DK FR FI NL BE CZ IT PL HU
Return spread multi family homes Yield Spread Prime 10Y Gov Bond 06/2013
Source: PATRIZIA, datastream
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%

0
-
4

5
-
9

1
0
-
1
4

1
5
-
1
9

2
0
-
2
4

2
5
-
2
9

3
0
-
3
4

3
5
-
3
9

4
0
-
4
4

4
5
-
4
9

5
0
-
5
4

5
5
-
5
9

6
0
-
6
4

6
5
-
6
9

7
0
-
7
4

7
5
-
7
9

8
0
-
8
4

8
5

&
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%

0
-
4

5
-
9

1
0
-
1
4

1
5
-
1
9

2
0
-
2
4

2
5
-
2
9

3
0
-
3
4

3
5
-
3
9

4
0
-
4
4

4
5
-
4
9

5
0
-
5
4

5
5
-
5
9

6
0
-
6
4

6
5
-
6
9

7
0
-
7
4

7
5
-
7
9

8
0
-
8
4

8
5

&
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%

0
-
4

5
-
9

1
0
-
1
4

1
5
-
1
9

2
0
-
2
4

2
5
-
2
9

3
0
-
3
4

3
5
-
3
9

4
0
-
4
4

4
5
-
4
9

5
0
-
5
4

5
5
-
5
9

6
0
-
6
4

6
5
-
6
9

7
0
-
7
4

7
5
-
7
9

8
0
-
8
4

8
5

&
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%

0
-
4

5
-
9

1
0
-
1
4

1
5
-
1
9

2
0
-
2
4

2
5
-
2
9

3
0
-
3
4

3
5
-
3
9

4
0
-
4
4

4
5
-
4
9

5
0
-
5
4

5
5
-
5
9

6
0
-
6
4

6
5
-
6
9

7
0
-
7
4

7
5
-
7
9

8
0
-
8
4

8
5

&
1992
Demographics will shape the future economic Development
Source: PATRIZIA, own calculations
EUROPEAN AGE DISTRIBUTION1992 VS. 2012 YOUNG AND OLD DEPENDENCY RATIOS
7.8%
10.7%
8.1%
7.4%
11.5%
0.1%
4.6%
34.7%
10.6% 16.7%
5.8%
20.0%
9.7%
10.4%
28%
32%
36%
40%
44%
48%
52%
32% 37% 42% 47%
O
l
d

d
e
p
e
n
d
e
n
c
y

r
a
t
i
o

Young dependency ratio
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%

0
-
4

5
-
9

1
0
-
1
4

1
5
-
1
9

2
0
-
2
4

2
5
-
2
9

3
0
-
3
4

3
5
-
3
9

4
0
-
4
4

4
5
-
4
9

5
0
-
5
4

5
5
-
5
9

6
0
-
6
4

6
5
-
6
9

7
0
-
7
4

7
5
-
7
9

8
0
-
8
4

8
5

&
2012
DE
DE
PT
ES
AT
LU
NL
BE UK
FR DK
SE FI
NO
The extent and speed of change will differ from country to country
This development is challenging, yet offers many opportunities as well
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Demographic changes: quality matters more
Source: PATRIZIA, Datastream
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
G
r
o
w
t
h

2
0
0
0

-

2
0
1
2

Cumulative house prices growth 2000 until 2012
Growth in old dependency ratio 2000-2012 (Population above 65J / Population between 15 and 64Y)
Population growth 2000-2012
DE
DE
PT
NL
DK IT
FI
ES
ES
SE
SE
UK
UK
NO
NO
FR
FR
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Population forecast till 2025
Source: PATRIZIA, Reuters
Regional population perspectives 2013-2025
Population distribution by age cohorts
Demographics support demand across the
Netherlands in the coming years
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0-20 years 20-40 years 40-65 years 65-80 years 80+ years
M
i
l
l
i
o
n

1990 2000 2013
0.10%
0.30%
0.50%
0.70%
0.90%
14
15
16
17
18
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
M
.

Wachstumsrate Bevlkerung Total population
yoy growth
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Residential investments are diverse!
INVESTMENT IN RESIDENTIAL ARE APPROPRIATE TO
DIVERSIFY

DEPENDING ON THE INVESTMENT STRATEGY THEY
COME IN THE FORM OF CORE, VALUE-ADD AND/OR
OPPORTUNISTIC INVESTMENTS.

CORE: Buy & Hold Strategy.


VALUE ADD: e.g. working on underrented assets or
residential property resale


OPPORTUNISTIC: e.g. development projects in
rural areas


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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Be aware of the effects of regulation on performance!
Rent
increases
Allowed by law
Maximum rent
permissible
Rent deposit
Rent indexation (index)
Cost
development
Allocation of maintenance
Allocation of operating
costs
Allocation of modernization
Allocation of
basic/decorative repairs
Lease term
Limited/unlimited
Automatic renewal
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Contact
DR. MARCUS CIELEBACK
GROUP HEAD OF RESEARCH

PATRIZIA Immobilien AG
PATRIZIA Brohaus
Fuggerstrae 26
86150 Augsburg

T +49 821 50910-669
F +49 821 50910-679
M +49 151 16150298
marcus.cieleback@patrizia.ag
www.patrizia.ag
For more information on the European housing markets
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PATRIZIA Immobilien AG| 2013
Disclaimer
This publication is purely for general information and not a prospectus. The information contained in this report is based on publicly available sources that we believe to be reliable. We cannot guarantee the
correctness or completeness of information. All statements of opinion reflect the current estimations of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of PATRIZIA Immobilien AG or its associated
companies. The opinions expressed in this publication may change without prior notice.

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