Año Ventas

2003 1763
2004 1787 PROMEDIO MOVIL MAD PM3
2005 1793
2006 1803 1781 22
2007 1782 1794 12.33333333
2008 1785 1793 7.666666667
2009 1795 1790 5
2010 1779 1787 8.333333333
2011 1780 1786 6.333333333
2012 1793 1785 8.333333333
2013 1802 1784 18
2014 1798 1792 6.333333333
2015 1775 1798 22.66666667
2016 1792 1792 0.333333333
2017 1784 1788 4.333333333
2018 1810 1784 26.33333333
2019 1794 1795 1.333333333
2020 1780 1796 16
PROMEDIOS 11.02222222

0.01418439716
MSE PM3 MAPE PM3 SE
1763.0000
484 0.012201886 1774.2980
152 0.006921062 1783.1019 0.0134
59 0.004295051 1792.4689
25 0.002785515 1787.5407
69 0.00468428 1786.3447
40 0.003558052 1790.4191
69 0.004647704 1785.0436
324 0.009988901 1782.6693
40 0.003522432 1787.5325
514 0.012769953 1794.3430
0 0.000186012 1796.0645
19 0.002428999 1786.1485
693 0.014548803 1788.9031
2 0.000743218 1786.5950
256 0.008988764 1797.6128
183 0.62% 1795.9121
 ALPHA 0.470748069

ERROR MADSE MSE MAPE

24 24.00 576.00 0.01343033016
19 18.70 349.77 0.01043058915
20 19.90 395.93 0.01103610324
-10 10.47 109.60 0.00587480093
-3 2.54 6.46 0.00142335184
9 8.66 74.91 0.00482191566
-11 11.42 130.40 0.00641885629
-5 5.04 25.44 0.0028334858
10 10.33 106.72 0.00576166339
14 14.47 209.31 0.00802859215
4 3.66 13.37 0.00203390685
-21 21.06 443.72 0.011867349
6 5.85 34.24 0.00326537342
-5 4.90 24.04 0.00274834995
23 23.41 547.80 0.01293096574
-4 3.61 13.05 0.00201384234
-16 15.91 253.19 0.00893938
11.996005 194.9381 0.67%
1820 Chart Title
1810
1800
1790
1780
1770
1760
1750
1740
1730
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
6 17 18
Quarter Sales PROMEDIO MOVIL
1 3031
2 3119
3 3148
4 3357
5 3413
6 3480
7 3503
8 3560
9 3541
10 3506
11 3531
12 3690
13 3916
14 4038
15 4090
16 4496
17 4762
18 4738
19 4846
20 5334
21 5382
22 5402
23 5502
24 5715
25 5698
26 5586
27 5630
28 5783
29 5783
30 5724
31 6367
32 6638
33 6854
34 6749
35 7230
36 7319
37 7508
38 7204
39 7108
40 7791
39 7108
40 7791
Año Ventas
2003 1763
2004 1787 PROMEDIO MOVIL MAD PM3
2005 1793
2006 1803
2007 1782
2008 1785 1786 0.60
2009 1795 1790 5.00
2010 1779 1792 12.60
2011 1780 1789 8.80
2012 1793 1784 8.80
2013 1802 1786 15.60
2014 1798 1790 8.20
2015 1775 1790 15.40
2016 1792 1790 2.40
2017 1784 1792 8.00
2018 1810 1790 19.80
2019 1794 1792 2.20
2020 1780 1791 11.00
PROMEDIOS 9.108
 MSE PM3 MAPE PM3 SE

0.36 0.0003361345
25.00 0.0027855153
158.76 0.0070826307
77.44 0.0049438202
77.44 0.0049079755
243.36 0.0086570477
67.24 0.0045606229
237.16 0.0086760563
5.76 0.0013392857
64.00 0.0044843049
392.04 0.0109392265
4.84 0.0012263099
121.00 0.0061797753
113.415 0.51%

RMSE? 10.650

Chart Titl
1820
1810
1800
1790
1780
1770
1760
1750
1740
1730
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
 ALPHA 0.470748069

ERROR MADSE MSE MAPE

Chart Title

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Tabla de métodos para ejercicios clase 13 febrero.xlsx!ventas
12/02/2023 creado a las 8:42 p. m.
(Los mejores métodos de cada serie se resaltan en negrita.)

Series - all -

Elementos de tabla
Métodos Rango
Promedio móvil doble 2
Promedio móvil simple 1
Suavizado exponencial doble 5
Suavizado exponencial simple 3
Tendencia desechada no estacional 4
RMSE MAD MAPE U de Theil Durbin-Watson Alfa Beta Orden Phi
12.084951 10.7 0.00597160916261 0.709665 2.600998712566 6
10.649666 9.108 0.005089364775062 0.7470147 2.038198589257 5
13.962914 12 0.006707842001981 0.9354489 1.533054305449 0.4687 0.001
13.962024 12 0.006707189554305 0.9353982 1.535244555099 0.4707
13.962024 12 0.006707189487558 0.9353982 1.535244470969 0.4707 0.001 0.001