Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
10 Breakthrough Technologies
PLUS: Review p. 92 Review p. 96
The Politics Virtual Reality
of Robots Is the Art Form
and Jobs of the Future
VOL. 120 NO. 2 MARCH/APRIL 2017
MA17_cover.indd 2
VOL. 120 NO. 2 10 Breakthrough Technologies MARCH/APRIL 2017
BLOCKCHAIN—
YOU’VE HEARD
THE TERM,
NOW UNDERSTAND
THE IMPACT.
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Every year, MIT Technology Review to senior editor Will Knight, reinforce-
selects the 10 technologies we believe ment learning is an old idea, toyed with
are the big breakthroughs of the last by AI pioneers like Marvin Minsky, that
year: innovations that are a clear never quite worked. But in March 2016,
advance in their field. “AlphaGo, a program trained using rein-
We’ve published a list of the year’s forcement learning, destroyed one of
most impactful technologies since the best Go players of all time … The
2002. We’re sometimes wrong. We once feat was astonishing, because it is vir-
thought social media and broadcast tually impossible to build a good Go-
television would merge (see “Social TV,” playing program … Not only is the game
May/June 2010). But they remain sepa- extremely complex, but even accom-
rate streams that people can experience plished players may struggle to say why
simultaneously, tweeting their impres- certain moves are good or bad.” Knight
sions of presidential debates as they says that reinforcement learning, cur-
watch them on TV. More often, we’re rently being explored by Uber, OpenAI,
not so much wrong as too early: cancer and DeepMind, could speed the devel-
genomics, where doctors sequence the opment of self-driving cars and robots
mutations of a patient’s tumor to better that can reliably grasp objects.
match the drugs most likely to help, was Or consider the cross-disciplinary
less practicable when sequencing was approach in “Reversing Paralysis” (see
more expensive (see “Cancer Genomics,” page 82), which combines neuroscience
May/June 2011). and electronics. Senior editor Anto-
What do we like? We are cross- nio Regalado describes how a French
disciplinary in our thinking: we enjoy neuroscientist named Grégoire Cour-
tracing how developments in one field tine installed a recording device inside
lead to advances in another. A break- the skull of a semi-paralyzed macaque
through in artificial intelligence (see monkey, and then sutured electrodes
“Deep Learning,” May/June 2013) has around the animal’s partially severed
become crucial to the ambitions for spinal cord. “A wireless connection
self-driving cars (see “Tesla Autopilot,” joined the two electronic devices. The
March/April 2016). We applaud ambi- result: a system that read the monkey’s
tious solutions, such as Google’s plan intention to move and then transmitted
to bring Internet access to everyone in it immediately in the form of bursts of
the world (see “Project Loon,” March/ electrical stimulation to its spine.” Sud-
April 2015). And we admire elegance denly, the monkey’s leg could extend
and power: we were blown away when and flex, and it “hobbled forward.” In
scientists used CRISPR to engineer the past, a few people have controlled
two macaque monkeys, demonstrating robotic arms using brain implants; but
the vast potential of gene editing (see by wirelessly connecting brain-reading
“Genome Editing,” May/June 2014). technologies to electrical stimulators,
This year’s 10 Breakthrough Tech- researchers like Courtine are creating
nologies reflect the same tastes. “Rein- “neural bypasses” that could allow the
forcement Learning” (see page 32) disabled to walk.
describes an ambitious approach in These are just two of the technolo-
AI: computers repeat an action until gies in this year’s list. Read all 10 tech-
something difficult goes more smoothly, nologies, and tell me which you think
GUIDO VIT TI
whereupon the system favors the behav- are most remarkable at jason.pontin@
ior that led to that outcome. According technologyreview.com.
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Contents
March /April 2017 BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES
8 Feedback 13 One Man Hacks His Own Genes 92 “The Relentless Pace of Automation”
When Brian Hanley needed a test subject, he Artificial intelligence can make life better—but
VIEWS thought, why not me? for whom?
By David Rotman
10 Drivers Wanted 16 AI’s Poker Triumph
It was supposed to be hard for a computer to 96 Virtually There
10 Playtime’s Over
beat people at poker. But AI made it look easy. Some call VR the art form of the century. Now
11 Paper Problem we just have to figure out what to do with it.
18 Very Light Jockeys
By Ty Burr
A camel race in the desert, with robots as the
Q+A riders.
DEMO
28 Jessica Brillhart 20 Reinventing the Web for Better Privacy
Google’s “principal filmmaker” conducts A new system lets you control your own data, 100 Inside the Far-Out Glass Lab
experiments in the future of virtual reality. and block a site’s access if you no longer trust it. A key ingredient of your future flexible device is
taking shape in rural New York.
22 The Robots in the Grocery Store By Katherine Bourzac
ON THE COVER How automation and artificial intelligence are
getting food to you faster.
40 YEARS AGO
24 Eyeing a Dropbox IPO
Can a tech unicorn cash in on corporate users?
108 Electronic Money Is Too Easy
In 1977, a writer wondered how it would affect
26 Hand Over the Data us if cash just went away.
A Google report shows how law enforcement
For the cover, artist Brendan Monroe drew the 10
requests for Internet user data are on the rise.
Breakthrough Technologies design, which we then had
woven into a tapestry on a Jacquard loom—an ode to
a much earlier breakthrough technology. The tapestry
was photographed by Leonard Greco.
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have a relatively uncomplicated tumor mean you can save them. But molecular
genome. diagnosis does mean survival for thou-
But there are disincentives to this sands of patients who would otherwise
approach. Insurance companies don’t face an immediate death. This alone has
cover molecular diagnostics, forcing oth- forever changed the practice of oncology.
erwise willing doctors into unwelcome
financial discussions with their patients. I Michael P. Castro is a medical oncologist in
also suspect most community oncologists Los Angeles.
don’t bother to seek a molecular diag-
nosis because they simply don’t have the AI Can’t Help Us, Because Online
resources available to deal with results Trolls Aren’t the Real Problem
that may be unfamiliar to them or point to The fundamental problem with online dis-
treatments that require substantial work course (“If Only AI Could Save Us from
to access. In a world where time is money Ourselves,” January/February 2017) is that
and no one pays for concierge levels of we’ve become less civil as a society. Online
service, why bother? Some oncologists postings are a manifestation of that, but
take on this burden nobly, for reasons they’re not the root of what’s wrong. Politi-
other than money—but they’re quite a cal discourse over the past few cycles has
rare breed. disinhibited people from expressing their
Cancer Sequencing Isn’t Perfect, In my practice, a small percentage darkest sentiments. It’s become okay to
but Standard Care Is Worse of patients derive meaningful benefits endorse ideas that people weren’t openly
Steve Hall’s otherwise well-balanced from molecular diagnosis. But how- admitting to several years ago.
article (“The Cancer Lottery,” Janu- ever unsatisfactorily low the number is, Now that Trump’s president, people
ary/February 2017) contained one mis- the alternative—standard care—is even who may have been sheepish about their
leading notion—that a patient must be worse. I for one can’t imagine putting views have had them validated. So they
at a major academic center to undergo my head in the sand and going back to become even more willing to openly voice
genomic sequencing. In fact, genomic practicing as if everyone has the same ideas once considered unacceptable.
testing, often exceeding what’s possi-
ble in university laboratories, is readily
commercially available. Unfortunately, I for one can’t imagine putting my head in the sand and going
oncologists who order genomic sequenc- back to practicing as if everyone has the same disease.
ing often do so after other “standard” ther-
apies have failed and no other treatment disease. There may be growing pains, We’re not likely to see a meaning-
options remain—more or less at the end of but the pre-molecular era of oncology ful decline in abusive postings anytime
life. This strategy is the least likely one to hardly deserves any sentimentality. And soon. Real live moderators will continue
succeed, because the tumor burden may what we’re powerless to act on today may to be the most effective remedy, even
already be overwhelming, and the number become a breakthrough news event in the as the volume of objectionable mate-
of molecular aberrations in the cancer too near future. rial they have to deal with expands.
vast and varied to be overcome by simple Genomic sequencing is far from a
targeting strategies. The far better strat- panacea—knowing the truth about what’s Robert DeVellis lives in Chapel Hill, North
egy is early diagnosis, when patients may driving people’s cancer doesn’t always Carolina.
Twitter Votes
Reactions to our stories on AI and trolls,
the digital divide, and Calico Labs.
Google’s Calico Labs wants to extend How do you think abuse in online communities should be tamed?
the human life span. How long would you
want to live for? 43% Ban the trolls
35% Encourage civility
22% Do nothing; it’s reality
29% Forever
What’s the best way to close the digital divide?
33% 150 years
24% Subsidies for consumers
Lead from
Lead for
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education and reflection for highly accomplished leaders in business, government,
law, medicine, technology and other sectors who are transitioning from their
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force tackling the world’s most challenging social and environmental problems.
be inspired at
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01.18.17_MIT_Half_Ad.indd 1 1/23/17 9:38 AM
Untitled-1 1 1/23/17 3:41 PM
Views
Emma Brunskill
largely responsible for most traffic deaths.
But that doesn’t mean self-driving cars
Playtime’s Over
and trucks will be able to avoid those Getting computers to beat humans at games
errors. An automated vehicle in Pitts- is impressive. But now the real work begins.
burgh recently drove the wrong way up
a one-way road. Last year in Florida a Early last year, a computer achieved
man using Tesla’s Autopilot feature was world-class performance in the game
killed when the system failed to recognize Go—years before most people believed
a tractor-trailer in front of the car. These such a feat would be possible.
are not doomsday scenarios; these are That’s impressive, but our ambitions
legitimate concerns. should be set higher. Computer science
There are other worries: with cyber- could help provide what the world critically
security breaches now a frequent topic needs: tools that enable all of us to reach
in the news, what happens when not just beyond what we thought we were capable
one but a “platoon” of trucks is hacked? of. Reinforcement learning—an integral
ANDY FRIEDMAN
The risks to the public only increase as part of the Go success—can accelerate that
more vehicle systems are controlled by process (see “10 Breakthrough Technolo-
Kenneth Rogoff computer. Don’t forget that some of those gies: Reinforcement Learning,” page 32).
10
Reinforcement learning is a way of human-computer collaborations could sionally), there are 34 $100 bills floating
making a computer learn through experi- help students to learn using approaches around for every man, woman, and child
ence to make a series of decisions that we can’t yet imagine. This vision of rein- in the country. Similar figures hold for
yield positive outcomes—even without forcement learning has artificially intel- big bills in other advanced economies.
any prior knowledge of how its actions ligent agents redefining what outstanding What are they being used for? The evi-
will affect its immediate environment. A human performance looks like—and dence seems clear: a huge amount of the
software-based tutor, for example, would enabling all of us to achieve it. world’s cash supply is used to facilitate tax
alter its activities in response to how stu- evasion, crime, and corruption.
dents perform on tests after using it. Emma Brunskill is an assistant professor of Given that, going to a completely
If we hope to create artificial teaching computer science at Stanford University. cashless society might appear to be a
agents using reinforcement learning, we’ll great idea. But it’s not so simple. Ordi-
need algorithms that are “data smart.” We nary people rely on cash to protect their
might gather data from online educa- CURRENCY privacy, and cash still comes in handy
tional systems and use it to help the agent
estimate the effectiveness of different
Paper Problem during prolonged power outages. One
way to deal with the problem might be to
teaching approaches. When a student logs Cash is passé. But digital money makes you phase out large-denomination notes such
in, should the system provide him with a easier to track. as the U.S. $100 bill, the 500-euro note,
problem to solve? Or would starting with and the 1,000 Swiss franc note—anything
an explanatory video be better? The data One great challenge facing society is worth $50 or more. (Although I wouldn’t
can help it decide. where to draw the line between an indi- suggest following the example of India,
But in some cases there’s not enough vidual’s right to privacy and the govern- which recently phased out 85 percent of
data, or not the right kind of data, which ment’s right to tax, regulate, and enforce its currency supply almost overnight. This
makes it challenging to develop systems the law. Few areas illustrate this problem move had disastrous effects that could
that make good decisions. It would be nice as well as the way we spend our money. have been avoided if the change had been
if we could create a system that didn’t Our transactions are increasingly made more gradually, over a period of
need so much data in the first place. And digital (and thus easily tracked), and in years.)
that’s exactly what my group is working places like China many companies are We shouldn’t get rid of cash entirely.
on—we’re developing reinforcement- adopting biometrics (like fingerprints or Even with the rapid evolution of new tech-
learning algorithms and statistical tech- eye scans) to verify who we are (see “10 nologies such as Bitcoin, paper currency
niques to allow computers to develop Breakthrough Technologies: Paying with provides ordinary citizens with a critical
good suggestions while using less data. Your Face,” page 72). In India, the govern- safety valve. The government’s objective
We still have a lot of work to do, but we’re ment has taken biometric data from 1.1 in regulating new or old transaction tech-
tightening the gap between theory and billion people. But these developments nologies should be to discourage whole-
practice.
In the end, we shouldn’t leave it all to
There are 34 $100 bills floating around for every man,
the computers. So-called “human-in-the-
loop” reinforcement learning can acceler- woman, and child in the country. A huge amount of that cash
ate the process, allowing algorithms to is being used to facilitate corruption and tax evasion.
“reason” about their own limited perfor-
mance and reach out to humans for help alone don’t give us a good answer to the sale tax evasion and crime while leaving
when they need, for example, to expand question of what we should do with good ordinary people a margin of privacy and
the set of possible decisions. My group old-fashioned paper currency. convenience in their ordinary lives. Put-
and our collaborators at the University of The demand for cash has dwindled in ting the economy on a cash diet is a good
Washington are now testing algorithms the legal, tax-compliant economy, but the idea. Literally going cashless is not.
for a tutoring system that can tell if its underground economy uses it as much as
current curriculum isn’t enabling all stu- ever. Incredibly, given that 95 percent of Kenneth Rogoff is a professor of economics
dents to learn well, and then asks people Americans report that they’ve never held a at Harvard University and the author of
to add new hints to the system. Such $100 bill (the rest say they hold one occa- The Curse of Cash.
11
Upfront
One Man’s
Quest to Hack
His Own Genes
When Brian Hanley set out to test a gene
therapy, he started with himself.
NIV BAVARSKY
13
Upfront
14
and thinking of all the ways something “It has very profound positive effects in QUOTED
could go wrong,” he says. The day I met most species.”
him, Hanley zipped open his cargo pants Hanley says he designed a plasmid “Are you happy?”
to show me three black dots tattooed on containing the human GHRH gene on — What researchers in Europe, using a novel
his left thigh, marking the site of one his computer and then located a scien- brain-machine interface, asked three completely
of the injections. Had the gene therapy tific supply company that manufactured paralyzed patients. They all said yes.
gone haywire, he says, his fail-safe option the DNA rings for him at a cost of about
was to have the affected tissue surgically $10,000. He showed me two vials of the
removed. stuff he’d brought along in a thermos, “This thing that really
Most often, gene therapy relies on each containing water thickened by half promoted entrepreneurship
viruses to shuttle DNA into a person’s a milligram of DNA. and democracy risks
cells. Hanley opted instead for a simpler In planning his study, Hanley skipped
becoming the opposite
method called electroporation. In this some steps that most companies develop-
procedure, circular rings of DNA, called ing a drug would consider essential. In of that.”
plasmids, are passed into cells using an addition to avoiding the FDA, he never — Mark Surman, executive director of the
electrical current. Once inside, they don’t tested his plasmid in any animals. He Mozilla foundation, on its research that shows
become a permanent part of the person’s did win clearance for the study from the the Internet is not open or free enough.
for growth-hormone-releasing hormone letters or site visits or auditing his ethics 2,500
(GHRH)—a molecule that is normally board. The plastic surgeon—whose name Number of homes that Tesla says it could power
made in the brain. One of its roles is to Hanley asked to keep confidential—could per day with its new lithium-ion battery storage
travel to the pituitary gland, where it acts face questions from California’s medical facility in California.
board. Or perhaps authorities will simply
Gene therapy can be done look the other way because the only per- 7.8 million
son Hanley put at risk was himself. Metric tons of carbon dioxide that the
on the cheap, in the same The kind of attention he is hoping construction of a wall on the Mexican border
setting as a nose job. for, he says, is from investors—someone
will emit, according to the Institute for
Sustainable Energy and the Environment at the
to fund a larger study or perhaps pay for University of Bath.
as a regulator of growth hormone itself, his treatment. Hanley is proud of what
telling the body to make more. It also he’s done. He created a company, secured
10 percent
appears to have an array of other roles, patents, made new contacts, identified Drop in average hourly earnings of taxi drivers in
including enhancing the immune system. a gene therapy that has plausible ben- cities after Uber arrived, according to a study by
“We never did try it in humans, but efits for people, and offered himself up the University of Oxford.
from everything that I saw in dogs, cats, as a pioneering volunteer. Doing gene
cattle, pigs, and horses, it seems like a therapy to yourself, he says, “focuses the
$514 million
reasonable leap forward,” says Douglas mind, it really does.” Amount of money that Snapchat, which plans to
Kern, a veterinarian who worked at VGX. —Antonio Regalado go public, lost in 2016.
15
Upfront
Why Poker Is a Big Deal good player. If you always bluff, you are
not a good player. Game theory tells you
TO MARKET Press a silver button on this device’s side, and tiny bumps rise
from various holes in a grid that dominates the top half of the
Blitab Tablet gadget. Sixty-five words at a time, the Blitab tablet translates text
Tablet for the Blind from the Web and other digital sources into Braille so people who
are blind can more easily access anything from mindless jokes to
COMPANY:
Blitab
e-books to political news. Other refreshable Braille displays on
the market tend to cost thousands of dollars and produce just
COURTESY OF BLITAB
PRICE: a few words at a time on one line. The Blitab’s Braille display
$500
includes 14 rows, each made up of 23 cells with six dots per cell.
AVAILABILITY: Underneath the grid are numerous layers of fluids and a special
This summer membrane that pushes up the tiny bubbles. —Rachel Metz
16
The 14th Annual MIT Sloan CIO Symposium THIS YEAR'S TOPICS INCLUDE: Putting AI to Work,
Designing for Digital, IoT, Cybersecurity, as well as a sneak
combines the academic thought leadership preview into Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee’s new book,
of MIT with the in-the-trenches experience Machine, Platform, Crowd – Harnessing the Digital Economy.
of global CIOs and industry experts. It is the
This MIT all-star lineup consists of scholars who are affiliated with
premier international conference for CIOs the MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy (IDE), MIT Sloan Center
and business leaders to look beyond day-to- for Information Systems Research (CISR), and MIT Sloan, as
well as the Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of the MIT Technology
day issues and explore enterprise innovations
Review, Jason Pontin, and the Editor-in-Chief of the MIT Sloan
in technology and business practices. Management Review, Paul Michelman:
Upfront
Photograph by
Karim Sahib
18
19
Upfront
the Web for Better Privacy Blockstack. It uses the digital ledger, or
blockchain, underpinning the digital cur-
rency Bitcoin to track usernames and asso-
Blockstack’s system would let you control your own personal data—for example,
ciated encryption keys that allow a person
by revoking a site’s access to it.
to control his or her data and identity. A col-
lective of thousands of computers around
Venture capitalist Albert Wenger has done needs your information, you will grant the globe maintains the blockchain, and
well by investing in Web businesses—he access to a profile under your control alone. no one entity controls it. Blockstack’s sys-
was an early backer of Etsy and Tumblr. If you want to stop using a service, you can tem uses the blockchain to record domain
But at his urging, Union Square Ventures, revoke its access to your profile and data names, too, meaning there’s no need for an
where he is a partner, is backing a com- and take it elsewhere. Sites will run all their equivalent to ICANN, the body that over-
pany founded on the principle that the code on your computer, in the browser. sees Web domains today. Software built
Web needs a rethink. “We’re trying to turn the existing model on top of the name and ID systems gives
“We’re living in a time period where on its head,” says Ryan Shea, CEO and people control over their data. Microsoft
the new incumbents like Amazon, Google, cofounder of Blockstack. “You can try to is already collaborating with Blockstack to
and Facebook have firmly established work with the existing model from within, explore uses for its platform.
themselves and are near monopolists in but sometimes it’s easier to step outside of Blockstack’s tweaks on how the Web
their markets,” says Wenger. “If we want a it and build something new from a clean functions may seem abstruse. But Shea
long-term, open playing field for innova- slate.” Blockstack’s vision is made possi- argues that low-level features of the
tion, we’re going to need new, Web’s design, like the lack of a
decentralized infrastructure.” built-in, independent identity
Blockstack recently system, are at the root of prob-
received $4 million in funding lems such as the dominance of
from USV and others to try to large companies and the lati-
establish that more open play- tude they have to make use of
ing field. The startup is work- user data. He says that com-
ing on open-source software panies will still be able to seek
that will create a kind of paral- profits on the new platform,
lel universe to the Web we but power will be tilted more
know—one where users have in favor of users.
more control of their data. The dream of a new kind
Later this year, Blockstack will of online sphere faces some
release software that lets you significant obstacles, though.
surf sites and apps created for Bitcoin’s design has proved to
this new digital domain using lack the capacity needed for a
your existing Web browser. You widely used currency—and it’s
will still be able to load sites by not clear how to build similar,
clicking links or typing Web fully decentralized systems that
addresses, but instead of creat- have it, says Emin Gün Sirer,
ing accounts with each site, as an associate professor at Cor-
people do with Google or Face- nell University. Such systems
book, users of sites built on might also struggle to resolve
PATRICK KYLE
20
10 Breakthrough Technologies of
2016: Where Are They Now?
Upfront
Most people don’t buy a jar of relish every That turns storing, picking, and storage scheme, so that popular items
week. But when they decide to buy one shipping items into a complex, time- are always within easy reach. Once an
from Ocado—the world’s largest online- constrained optimization problem. But order is packed, it’s hauled off in a large
only grocery retailer—they don’t have to in order for Ocado to grow and turn a truck and taken to a distribution center
scrabble at the back of the store. Instead, profit—which it does, despite a crowded to be loaded into a van. Each van then
when they select a jar from Ocado’s online U.K. grocery market—it has to make every embarks on a delivery route that can be
store, they summon robots and artificial step as efficient as possible. carefully optimized according to factors
intelligence to have it delivered to their Currently, when a customer orders such as customer time preferences, traf-
door. groceries via Ocado’s website, large plas- fic, and even weather. But Ocado wants
Ocado claims that its 350,000-square- tic crates are swiftly filled. The contain- to be faster. “Fractions of a second in our
foot warehouse in Dordon, near the U.K.’s ers are packed by hand, but little legwork business count,” says Paul Clarke, O cado’s
second city of Birmingham, is more heav- is required: 30 kilometers of conveyor chief technology officer. “It’s all about
ily automated than Amazon’s warehouse belts at the Dordon warehouse carry how we can shave the next little bit off
facilities. The company’s task is certainly empty boxes straight to people who our process.”
more challenging in many respects: most work as pickers. They grab items from So its third warehouse—currently
of the 48,000 lines of goods that it sells shelves that are replenished by robots, in live trials near Andover, west of Lon-
COURTESY OF OCADO
are perishable, and many must be chilled or from boxes brought out of storage via don—is being designed from scratch.
or frozen. Some, such as sushi, must be cranes and conveyors. Ocado’s algorithms Its main floor is laid out in a giant grid
delivered on the same day they arrive in monitor demand for products and use about the size of a football field, split into
the warehouse. the information to map out an optimal washing-machine-size squares. Beneath
22
each square is a vertical stack of five crates of oranges to a bottle of wine. As a result, the food of machine learning,” says Clarke.
of groceries. On the surface of the grid Clarke says, humans will be involved for The company uses machine learning to
are up to 1,000 robots, each able to lift the foreseeable future. spot missing items in a shop, populate a
crates from below. The robots scuttle He’s similarly restrained about auto- basket of groceries on the basis of learned
around, passing within centimeters of mation of the delivery process. While the preferences, and even suggest versions of
each other, at up to nine miles per hour. company is already in discussions with products that are lower in salt or sugar.
Orders relayed via a specially designed 4G the University of Oxford’s self-driving- Over time, Ocado plans to streamline
network instruct the robots to grab crates vehicle spinout Oxbotica—though it the ordering process as far as it possibly
and shuttle them to the edge of the grid, won’t say about exactly what—Clarke says can. Clarke suggests that the company
where pickers can grab the needed prod- many customers will continue to prefer could acquire consumption data from
ucts. The robots work as a swarm: if the a human to deliver their order, even if your smart fridge, listen to what recipes
required product is four crates down in autonomous vehicles make it possible for you’re talking about via a smart assistant
a stack, for instance, several of them can robots to take over the job. Still, Ocado’s like Amazon’s Alexa, and even mine your
remove boxes to open the way. business is by nature one in which robots calendar for data so it knows you’ll be
The Andover warehouse, which is cooking for friends next weekend. Ulti-
likely to enter full service this year, is a mately, he says, it would like for “the right
In the grocery delivery groceries to turn up, at the right time, as
trial for an even larger facility in Erith,
just outside London, which will begin business, fractions of a if by magic, without you even having to
construction next year. Its storage area second count. ask for them.”
will be three times the size. That will make It’s not the only company asking food
it even more complex to work out where will ultimately be preferable to humans. shoppers to sacrifice anonymity for con-
to store goods and retrieve them, using When pushed on the impact of automa- venience. Amazon’s new Go convenience
thousands of robots. Clarke says that the tion on employment, Clarke is bullish. store, for instance, allows shoppers to
computational demands of this optimi- He insists that it’s a “game that is going scan their phone, pick up food from the
zation problem are bearable, but he adds to play out regardless,” adding that “this shelf, and walk straight out, paying later
that the company is investing in GPU- is happening on a world stage … if we as a because the company knows just what
based systems and keeping a watchful U.K. business don’t continue to get better they took.
eye on quantum computing for the future. using automation, somebody else will, and Still, if customers can stomach the loss
Ocado is working on robotics that we’re determined not to let that happen.” of privacy, Ocado offers something valu-
could one day pick orders from the crates The customer experience, meanwhile, able in return. “We can free people up,”
carried by its swarm of robots, but that’s will benefit from AI systems being built says Clarke, “so that they have more time
difficult, thanks to the wide variation in by Ocado’s developers. “With more data to experiment and experience the delight
the shape of groceries—from, say, a bag comes greater intelligence—because that’s of food.” —Jamie Condliffe
$699
era, and users can access a live stream from an app. Kuri comes
AVAILABILITY: across as lovable but simple, so there’s no reason to expect it to
Late 2017 do more than simple jobs. —Signe Brewster
23
Upfront
24
Dropbox’s fundamental business model. industries like health care and financial network to cut the time it takes to store
About 10 million new people start using services, while younger providers such as and sync traffic.
the free consumer product every month. Asana, Atlassian, and Slack already han- The result is more of a traditional
An increasing percentage of those users dle elements of what Dropbox aims to enterprise software company than the
sign up for the $100-a-year Pro version, do. According to Gartner analyst Karen hyper-efficient app maker Houston
which offers more storage and sharing Hobert, there are 130 companies just founded in 2007. The idea for the com-
features. Many of those Pro customers in the electronic file storage and sync pany came when Houston realized dur-
use Dropbox at work, and once their market. ing a long bus ride that he’d forgotten the
employers realize how popular it is, they Yet even rivals see Dropbox as a likely USB drive with his work files at home.
are more likely to step up to Dropbox survivor of the inevitable consolidation. The resulting cloud-storage app was a
Business, which is designed for use by The overall market opportunity for pro- sensation with people who felt his pain.
teams rather than individuals. So far ductivity and collaboration tools is $30 By 2012, Dropbox had 100 million reg-
more than 200,000 companies have billion, if you replace all those PC disk istered users.
signed up for Dropbox Business, up from drives and traditional Windows or Mac Then things got difficult. Giants such
50,000 in 2014. While most are small and programs with cloud-based alternatives. as Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Google
medium-sized companies, a few big com- “That’s an order of magnitude more than began giving away cloud storage capacity
panies such as Expedia and News Corp. the combined revenue of all the players as a way to sweeten other offerings. As
have more than 10,000 seats. today,” says Box chief executive officer prices collapsed, cloud storage specialists
A successful push into productivity Aaron Levie. “As everything moves to faced an existential threat.
and collaboration software could give A successful move by Dropbox into
corporate customers much more to buy The tools workers will use the huge market for productivity and col-
from Dropbox. The first example is Paper, laboration software could brighten the
which provides a kind of virtual white
in five years will be very outlook, but it will require the company
space where employees and contractors different from today’s. to pull off two tough transformations at
can share Excel spreadsheets, Google once. Dropbox is still evolving from a
Docs, and other digital assets regardless of the cloud, there’s going to be plenty of maker of a free consumer app to a cor-
what device they are using. The idea is to opportunity.” porate IT infrastructure company. Now
tie together scores of different productiv- Dropbox has been bulking up for this it must also move from selling technol-
ity tools and fold in management tools to opportunity since 2014, when Houston ogy that’s designed to be as invisible as
help teams keep projects on track. Paper hired Woodside. A former McKinsey con- possible to making products people use
has been in beta since late 2015 and offi- sultant, Woodside joined Google in 2003 throughout much of their day. Its com-
cially launched in January. “In five years, as an operations expert before running petitor Box provides a cautionary tale.
you could start a business on Dropbox: U.S. sales and then the Motorola Mobil- It introduced a Paper-like product three
that is something we aspire to,” says chief ity cell-phone division. At Dropbox, he’s years ago called Box Notes. But Levie
operating officer Dennis Woodside, who hired more than 200 salespeople, up from admits that its reception has been less
declined to comment on IPO plans. zero when the company relied solely on than overwhelming. Box relaunched
Dropbox is far from the only com- Internet clicks. The engineering team has Notes with new features earlier this year.
pany looking to change the way work is more than doubled to more than 1,000 Woodside responds that few com-
done. Google offers G Suite, which con- members, large by any measure. And he panies have the scale, the technical
tains business versions of apps such as has overseen a massive, risky IT overhaul. expertise, and the brand to pull off its
Google Docs and Gmail. Facebook has a While most companies are moving more ambitious plans. “There’s close to two
collaboration service called Workplace. of their business onto public cloud plat- billion knowledge workers in the world,
Microsoft is improving its cloud offerings forms like the one run by Amazon Web and I know this much: the tools they’ll be
as it seeks to defend the massive mar- Services, Dropbox has shifted billions of using in five years are not the ones they’re
ket share earned with its Windows and its U.S. customers’ files away from Ama- using today,” he says. “Is the number 500
Office monopolies. Box has strong trac- zon’s platform to three of its own data million? A billion? I don’t know. But we
tion with companies in highly regulated centers. That way, Dropbox can tweak its have a shot.” —Peter Burrows
25
Upfront
FOREIGN
U
NITED STATES
80,000
Subpoenas: Do not require review
by a judge. Can include users’
names and IP addresses.
Preservation requests: Ask
company to set aside certain
information while the government
goes to court to compel company
to disclose it.
Search warrants: Court-
sanctioned demands for personal
content such as e-mail messages,
60,000
documents, photos, or videos.
Pen register and wiretap orders:
Orders approved by a judge for
metadata about communications
(pen registers) or for their content
(wiretaps).
Other court orders and
emergency requests
Type not reported
40,000
20,000
ILLUSTRATION BY LUKE SHUMAN; DATA FROM GOOGLE
26
technolo
g yreview.c
om/marc
hsubscri
be
What does the principal film- When did you first encounter demo that they were hesitant with a camera and filmed
maker for VR at Google do? virtual reality? to show me because it was the everyday stuff, and then he and
I see the technologies we’re One day, I visited an engineer- first they ever filmed. It was of his wife found a way to edit it
building at Google, specifi- ing team that was building a all the engineers in the office together. And he wanted to dis-
cally in VR. And I ask what 360° camera, and I saw their turning on the rig for the first miss all the film that came
I can do with them cre- demos, and it was the stuff time. And they were so happy! before him, because he thought
atively. I mediate between the we’re used to now—musi- I just loved the goofy looks on it was just theater. Vertov’s idea
e ngineers and creative peo- cians in 360 degrees—and I their faces. At first they were was that the camera was a dis-
ple, and I make stuff in the thought, “That’s kind of inter- just looking around. Like, “Is embodied eye: a detached
process. esting.” But there was one it working? We don’t know.” thing that could follow a horse,
And then suddenly they were or be under a train, or throw
throwing their arms in the air. you over a building. It can show
And you felt delighted because a world previously unknown to
they were just so pleased that it you. But it’s Vertov’s perspec-
worked. And I knew I had seen tive on the world.
something that filmmaking With VR it’s about you
had a really hard time doing. being convinced that you’re
Probably could never do. physically in another space.
VR is an embodied medium:
Can VR support a story with a creators are taking that
through line? detached eye and reattach-
I’m pretty harsh about this ing it to someone’s face. VR
question, because I think reminds us of the nuances of
emphasizing storytelling isn’t experiences, what connects
right. Storytelling is the prod- people with each other, with
uct of film as a medium. In places, with things in the real
TIM BARBER
28
29
Reinforcement
Learning
Breakthrough
An approach to
artificial intelligence By experimenting, computers are
that gets computers
to learn like people,
figuring out how to do things that no
without explicit programmer could teach them.
instruction.
By
Why It Matters
I
Progress in self-
Will Knight
33
ing. During training, the control software Reinforcement learning copies a very
performed the maneuver over and over, simple principle from nature. The psy-
altering its instructions a little with each chologist Edward Thorndike documented
The technology
happened way too slowly and cars inter- placed cats inside boxes from which they
fered with each other. But whenever the could escape only by pressing a lever. After
merge went smoothly, the system would a considerable amount of pacing around
learn to favor the behavior that led up to it. and meowing, the animals would eventu-
This approach, known as reinforce- ally step on the lever by chance. After they
ment learning, is largely how AlphaGo, learned to associate this behavior with the
a computer developed by a subsidiary desired outcome, they eventually escaped
of Alphabet called DeepMind, mastered with increasing speed.
the impossibly complex board game Go Some of the very earliest artificial-
34
when to operate the cooling systems. on a fleet of vehicles in collaboration ing demo, it looks as though the company
But the setting where you will proba- with BMW and Intel later this year. Both has succeeded, at least so far. But later
bly most notice this software’s remarkably Google and Uber say they are also test- this year, perhaps on a highway near you,
humanlike behavior is in self-driving cars. ing reinforcement learning for their self- reinforcement learning will get its most
Today’s driverless vehicles often falter in driving vehicles. dramatic and important tests to date.
35
36
Breakthrough
Consumer cameras
that produce 360°
Why It Matters
Photos and videos
with this perspective
could become the
new standard for
everything from news
coverage to vacation
shots.
Key Players
- Ricoh
- Samsung
- 360fly
- JK Imaging (maker of
Kodak Pixpro digital
cameras)
- IC Real Tech (maker of
the ALLie camera)
- Humaneyes Technologies
Availability
Now
By Elizabeth Woyke
S
easonal changes to vegetation fas- look at the image through a virtual-reality captured that context: use a rig to posi-
cinate Koen Hufkens. So last fall headset they can rotate the photo by mov- tion multiple cameras at different angles
Hufkens, an ecological researcher ing their head, intensifying the illusion with overlapping fields of view or pay at
at Harvard, devised a system to that they are in the woods. least $10,000 for a special camera. The
continuously broadcast images Hufkens says the project will allow production process was just as cumber-
from a Massachusetts forest to a website him to document how climate change is some and generally took multiple days to
called VirtualForest.io. And because he affecting leaf development in New Eng- complete. Once you shot your footage, you
used a camera that creates 360° pictures, land. The total cost? About $550, includ- had to transfer the images to a computer;
visitors can do more than just watch the ing $350 for the Ricoh Theta S camera wrestle with complex, pricey software to
feed; they can use their mouse cursor (on that takes the photos. fuse them into a seamless picture; and
a computer) or finger (on a smartphone We experience the world in 360 then convert the file into a format that
or tablet) to pan around the image in a degrees, surrounded by sights and sounds. other people could view easily.
circle or scroll up to view the forest can- Until recently, there were two main Today, anyone can buy a decent 360°
opy and down to see the ground. If they options for shooting photos and video that camera for less than $500, record a video
38
ALLie Camera
It uses technology originally
Chicago’s Millennium Park captured by developed for the surveillance industry
the ALLie camera. and can capture images in low light.
39
within minutes, and upload it to Facebook fleeing the militant group Boko Haram
or YouTube. Much of this amateur 360° puts you in the center of a crowd receiv-
content is blurry; some of it captures 360 ing food from aid groups. You start by
degrees horizontally but not vertically; watching a man heaving sacks off a pickup
and most of it is mundane. (Watching truck and hearing them thud onto the
footage of a stranger’s vacation is almost ground. When you turn your head, you
as boring in spherical view as it is in reg- see the throngs that have gathered to
ular mode.) But the best user-generated claim the food and the makeshift carts
360° photos and videos—such as the Vir- they will use to transport it. The 360° for-
tual Forest—deepen the viewer’s apprecia- mat is so compelling that it could become
tion of a place or an event. a new standard for raw footage of news
Journalists from the New York Times events—something that Twitter is trying
and Reuters are using $350 Samsung to encourage by enabling live spherical
COURTESY OF SAMSUNG
40
41
Ricoh Theta S
Ricoh put the image sensors on the
camera’s sides instead of behind its Utah’s Sidestep Canyon captured
lenses, making its thin shape possible. by the Ricoh Theta S.
JOHN FOWLER/FLICKR
42
operations by attaching a $500 360fly 4K pare for games in ways that conventional dragon processors similar to those that
camera, which is the size of a baseball, to sideline and end-zone videos can’t. run Samsung’s high-end handsets.
surgical lights above the patient. The 360° Camera companies also benefited in
view enables students to see not just the Component innovations recent years from smartphone vendors’
surgeon and surgical site, but also the way These applications are feasible because continuous quest to integrate higher-
the operating room is organized and how of the smartphone boom and innova- quality imaging into their gadgets. The
the operating room staff interacts. tions in several technologies that combine competition forced component makers
Meanwhile, inexpensive 360° cameras images from multiple lenses and sensors. like Sony to shrink image sensors and
such as Kodak’s $450 Pixpro SP360 4K For instance, 360° cameras require more ensure that they offered both high reso-
are popping up on basketball backboards, horsepower than regular cameras and lution and good performance in low light.
football fields, and hockey nets during generate more heat, but that is handled As the huge smartphone market helped
practice for professional and collegiate by the energy-efficient chips that power bring down component prices, 360°-cam-
teams. Coaches say the resulting videos smartphones. Both the 360fly and the era makers found it possible to price
help players visualize the action and pre- $499 ALLie camera use Qualcomm Snap- their devices accessibly, often at less than
43
44
$500. “There are sensors that now cost The cameras connect to the apps wire-
$1 instead of $1,000 because they’re used lessly, and many of them allow you to
in smartphones, which have incredible upload photos and video directly from
economies of scale,” says J effrey Martin, your phone to Facebook and YouTube.
the CEO of a 360°-camera startup called In turn, those sites have made it possible
Sphericam. Advances in optics played a over the past year for people not just to
part as well. Unlike traditional cameras, post recorded 360° content but to live-
which have fairly narrow fields of view, stream 360° videos as well.
360° cameras sport exaggerated fish-eye Because creating 360° content
lenses that require special optics to align requires stitching together multiple
and focus images across multiple points. images, doing it on the fly for live stream-
Most 360° cameras lack displays ing represents an impressive technical
KIN MUN LEE/FLICKR
45
with minimal delays. (It helps that most ularity of these devices will benefit the time playing games. Instead, they may
consumer-grade cameras have only two virtual-reality industry as well as cam- don VR headsets to do things like virtu-
lenses and thus one stitch line. Profes- era makers. You don’t need special VR ally attend a wedding.
sional versions can have six to 24 lenses.) gear to view spherical videos, but YouTube Once people discover spherical videos,
The ALLie camera supports fast stitching says many people look at them on smart- research suggests, they shift their viewing
and live-streaming, as do Ricoh’s upcom- phones slipped into VR headsets, such behavior quickly. The company Human-
ing Ricoh R development kit camera and as Google’s Cardboard and Daydream eyes, which is developing an $800 camera
Kodak’s Orbit360 4K, which will be avail- devices. And more people experimenting that can produce 3-D spherical images,
able later this year for $500. with 360° cameras means more content says people need to watch only about 10
Spherical cameras represented 1 per- for other people to watch in VR. hours of 360° content before they instinc-
cent of worldwide consumer camera In fact, John Carmack, the chief tech- tively start trying to interact with all vid-
shipments in 2016 and are set to reach 4 nology officer of Facebook’s Oculus VR eos. When you see 360° imagery that truly
percent in 2017, according to the research subsidiary, has predicted that people will transports you somewhere else, you want
firm Futuresource Consulting. The pop- spend less than 50 percent of their VR it more and more.
TOM P OOLE/FLICKR
46
47
48
Breakthrough
First gene therapies
on track for approval
in the U.S. More are
on the way.
Why It Matters
Thousands of
diseases stem from
an error in a single
gene. New treatments
could cure them.
Availability
Now
By Emily Mullin
W
hen Kala Looks gave birth At first, Kala and Philip thought their Researchers have been chasing the
to fraternal twin boys in only option was to get Levi a bone mar- dream of gene therapy for decades. The
January 2015, she and her row transplant, but they couldn’t find a idea is elegant: use an engineered virus
husband, Philip, had no match for him. Then they learned about to deliver healthy copies of a gene into
idea that one of them was an experimental gene therapy at Boston patients with defective versions. But
harboring a deadly mutation in his genes. Children’s Hospital. It was attempting until recently it had produced more
At three months old, their son Levi to treat children like Levi by replacing disappointments than successes. The
was diagnosed with severe combined the gene responsible for destroying his entire field was slowed in 1999 when an
immune deficiency, or SCID, which ren- immune system. 18-year-old patient with a liver disease,
ders the body defenseless against infec- “I thought, this isn’t real,” Kala says. Jesse Gelsinger, died in a gene-therapy
tions. Levi’s blood had only a few immune “There’s no way this could work.” experiment.
cells essential to fighting disease. Soon he Nonetheless, the Lookses flew from But now, crucial puzzles have been
would lose them and have no immune their home in Michigan to Boston in solved and gene therapies are on the
system at all. May 2015. Days later, Levi got an infu- verge of curing devastating genetic dis-
Kala and Philip frantically began sion of the therapy into his veins. He has orders. Two gene therapies for inherited
sanitizing their home to keep Levi alive. been a normal boy ever since—and he has diseases—Strimvelis for a form of SCID
They got rid of the family cat, sprayed even grown larger than his twin brother. and Glybera for a disorder that makes fat
every surface with Lysol, and boiled the Babies born with SCID typically didn’t build up in the bloodstream—have won
twins’ toys in hot water. Philip would survive past two years old. Now, a one- regulatory approval in Europe. In the
strap on a surgical mask when he came time treatment offers a cure for patients United States, Spark Therapeutics could
home from work. like Levi Looks. be the first to market; it has a treatment
50
for a progressive form of blindness. Other everyone may be able to take gene therapy Gene-therapy researchers have sur-
gene therapies in development point to to combat the effects of aging. mounted many of those early problems
a cure for hemophilia and relief from an Early gene therapies failed in part by using viruses that are more efficient
incapacitating skin disorder called epider- because of the delivery mechanism. In at transporting new genetic material into
molysis bullosa. 1990, a four-year-old girl with a form cells.
Fixing rare diseases, impressive in of SCID was treated by scientists at But several challenges remain. While
its own right, could be just the start. the National Institutes of Health, who gene therapies have been developed for
Researchers are studying gene therapy in extracted white blood cells from her, several relatively rare diseases, creating
clinical trials for about 40 to 50 different inserted normal copies of her faulty gene such treatments for more common dis-
diseases, says Maria-Grazia Roncarolo, a into them, then injected her with the cor- eases that have complex genetic causes
pediatrician and scientist at Stanford Uni- rected cells. But patients later treated for a will be far more difficult. In diseases like
versity who led early gene-therapy experi- different type of SCID went on to develop SCID and hemophilia, scientists know the
ments in Italy that laid the foundation for leukemia. The new genetic material and precise genetic mutation that is to blame.
Strimvelis. That’s up from just a few con- the virus used to carry it into cells were But diseases like Alzheimer’s, diabetes,
ditions 10 years ago. And in addition to delivered to the wrong part of the genome, and heart failure involve multiple genes—
treating disorders caused by malfunctions which switched on cancer-causing genes and the same ones aren’t all involved in all
in single genes, researchers are looking to in some patients. In Gelsinger’s case, the people with those conditions.
engineer these therapies for more com- virus used to transport functioning genes Nonetheless, for Kala and Philip Looks,
mon diseases, like Alzheimer’s, diabetes, into his cells made his immune system go the success of gene therapy is already real.
heart failure, and cancer. Harvard geneti- into overdrive, leading to multiple organ A treatment they had never heard of rid
cist George Church has said that someday, failure and brain death. their child of a horrific disease.
MIKAEL HÄGGSTRÖM; COURTESY OF UNIQURE; MYSTÈRE MARTIN /
congenital amaurosis appear therapy for an inherited disease. therapy for an inherited disease, U.S. for the first time.
to have improved vision Called Glybera, the drug treats to treat a type of SCID.
after treatment with a gene lipoprotein lipase deficiency,
therapy. However, years later, which causes fat to build up in
researchers will report in the the blood.
New England Journal of Medicine
that some patients’ eyesight has
begun to wane.
51
Breakthrough
A solar power device
that could theoretically By converting heat to focused beams
double the efficiency of
conventional solar cells.
of light, a new solar device could
create cheap and continuous power.
Why It Matters
By
The new design
James Temple
could lead to
S
inexpensive solar
power that keeps
working after the
olar panels cover a growing num-
sun sets.
ber of rooftops, but even decades
Key Players after they were first developed,
- David Bierman, Marin the slabs of silicon remain bulky,
Soljacic, and Evelyn expensive, and inefficient. Funda-
Wang, MIT
mental limitations prevent these conven-
- Vladimir Shalaev, Purdue
University tional photovoltaics from absorbing more
than a fraction of the energy in sunlight.
Availability But a team of MIT scientists has built
10 to 15 years a different sort of solar energy device that
PHOTOGRAPHY BY KEN RICHARDSON
53
so-called solar thermophotovoltaics, the The key step in creating the device of light flow through it. Another critical
MIT device is the first one to absorb more was the development of something called advance was the addition of a highly spe-
energy than its photovoltaic cell alone, an absorber-emitter. It essentially acts cialized optical filter that transmits the
demonstrating that the approach could as a light funnel above the solar cells. tailored light while reflecting nearly all
dramatically increase efficiency. The absorbing layer is built from solid the unusable photons back. This “pho-
Standard silicon solar cells mainly black carbon nanotubes that capture all ton recycling” produces more heat, which
capture the visual light from violet to red. the energy in sunlight and convert most generates more of the light that the solar
That and other factors mean that they can of it into heat. As temperatures reach cell can absorb, improving the efficiency
never turn more than around 32 percent around 1,000 °C, the adjacent emitting of the system.
of the energy in sunlight into electricity. layer radiates that energy back out as There are some downsides to the MIT
The MIT device is still a crude prototype, light, now mostly narrowed to bands that team’s approach, including the relatively
operating at just 6.8 percent efficiency— the photovoltaic cells can absorb. The high cost of certain components. It also
but with various enhancements it could emitter is made from a photonic crystal, currently works only in a vacuum. But the
be roughly twice as efficient as conven- a structure that can be designed at the economics should improve as efficiency
tional photovoltaics. nanoscale to control which wavelengths levels climb, and the researchers now have
54
efficient as conventional
The device eventually could be twice as
photovoltaics.
55
a clear path to achieving that. “We can fur- is easier to store than electricity, it should
ther tailor the components now that we’ve be possible to divert excess amounts gener-
improved our understanding of what we ated by the device to a thermal storage sys-
need to get to higher efficiencies,” says tem, which could then be used to produce
Evelyn Wang, an associate professor who electricity even when the sun isn’t shining.
helped lead the effort. If the researchers can incorporate a stor-
The researchers are also exploring ways age device and ratchet up efficiency levels,
to take advantage of another strength of the system could one day deliver clean,
solar thermophotovoltaics. Because heat cheap—and continuous—solar power.
56
57
58
Breakthrough
A master catalog of
every cell type in the
human body.
Why It Matters
Super-accurate mod-
els of human physiol-
ogy will speed up the
discovery and testing
of new drugs.
Key Players
- Broad Institute
Availability
5 years
COURTESY OF FRED TOMASELLI AND JAMES COHAN. NEW YORK
I
n 1665, Robert Hooke peered down Fig. 1 Robert Hooke’s drawing of cork,
his microscope at a piece of cork and as seen through a microscope (1665).
discovered little boxes that reminded
Fig. 2 Sperm containing a homunculus
him of rooms in a monastery. Being (Nicholas Hartsoeker, 1695).
the first scientist to describe cells,
60
Fig. 5
Fig. 4
Fig. 6
WELLCOME LIBRARY, LONDON
61
Self-Driving
Trucks
62
Breakthrough
Long-haul trucks that
drive themselves for Tractor-trailers without a human
extended stretches
at the wheel will soon barrel onto
By
on highways.
highways near you. What will this
David H. Freedman
Why It Matters
mean for the nation’s 1.7 million truck
The technology might
free truck drivers drivers?
to complete routes
more efficiently, but it
could also erode their
pay and eventually
replace many of them
altogether.
Key Players
- Otto
- Volvo
- Daimler
- Peterbilt
Availability
5 to 10 years
R
oman Mugriyev was driving his many technical problems are still unre- the ones for self-driving cars. Otto and
long-haul 18-wheeler down a solved, proponents claim that self-driving other companies will need to demon-
two-lane Texas highway when he trucks will be safer and less costly. “This strate that sensors and code can match
saw an oncoming car drift into system often drives better than I do,” says the situational awareness of a professional
his lane just a few hundred feet Greg Murphy, who’s been a professional trucker—skills honed by years of expe-
ahead. There was a ditch to his right and truck driver for 40 years. He now serves rience and training in piloting an easily
more oncoming cars to his left, so there as a safety backup driver during tests of destabilized juggernaut, with the momen-
was little for him to do but hit his horn self-driving trucks by Otto, a San Fran- tum of 25 Honda Accords, in the face of
and brake. “I could hear the man who cisco company that outfits trucks with the confusing road hazards, poor surface con-
taught me to drive telling me what he equipment needed to drive themselves. ditions, and unpredictable car drivers.
always said was rule number one: ‘Don’t At first glance, the opportunities and And perhaps most important, if self-
hurt anybody,’” Mugriyev recalls. challenges posed by self-driving trucks driving trucks do take hold, they figure to
But it wasn’t going to work out that might seem to merely echo those asso- be more controversial than self-driving
way. The errant car collided with the front ciated with self-driving cars. But trucks cars. At a time when our politics and
of Mugriyev’s truck. It shattered his front aren’t just long cars. For one thing, the economy are already being upended by
axle, and he struggled to keep his truck economic rationale for self-driving trucks the threats that automation poses to jobs
and the wrecked car now fused to it from might be even stronger than the one for (see “The Relentless Pace of Automation,”
hitting anyone else as it barreled down driverless cars. Autonomous trucks can page 92), self-driving trucks will affect an
ANDREW PAYNTER; COURTESY OF OT TO
the road. After Mugriyev finally came to coördinate their movements to platoon enormous number of blue-collar work-
a stop, he learned that the woman driving closely together over long stretches of ers. There are 1.7 million trucking jobs
the car had been killed in the collision. highway, cutting down on wind drag and in the U.S., according to the Bureau of
Could a computer have done better at saving on fuel. And letting the truck drive Labor Statistics. Technology is unlikely
the wheel? Or would it have done worse? itself part of the time figures to help truck- to replace truckers entirely anytime soon.
We will probably find out in the next ers complete their routes sooner. But it will almost certainly alter the nature
few years, because multiple companies are But the technological obstacles fac- of the job, and not necessarily in ways that
now testing self-driving trucks. Although ing autonomous trucks are higher than all would welcome.
64
65
66
67
68
69
to nap and relax in the cab while Otto does One endorsement of the potential ben- Even if, as is likely for the foresee-
the driving, says Berdinis, drivers could efits of autonomous trucks to both truck- able future, drivers stay on in the cab of
use the time away from the wheel to catch ing companies and drivers has come from self-driving trucks, it’s not clear the eco-
up on trucking’s heavy paperwork, locate the state government of Ohio, a trucking nomics will work out in their favor. That’s
a “backhaul” load that would pay for the hub that’s home to more than 70,000 driv- because there’s currently no regulation
return trip, chat with family and friends, ers. The state has committed $15 million to that would require companies to pay driv-
learn a second trade, or run a business. set up a 35-mile stretch of highway outside ers for the time they spend in the back of
“And while they’re doing it, the drivers are Columbus for testing self-driving trucks. the cab. What’s more, freight companies
still getting paid for driving,” he says. The heads of both the American Trucking are likely to be forced to convert the cost
These potential benefits could help Associations and the Ohio Trucking Asso- savings from always-rolling trucks into
with recruiting and training truck driv- ciation have publicly suggested that auton- lower hauling charges in order to compete.
ers—a key concern, because there’s actually omous trucks will be good for truckers. Those dropping fees could put pressure on
a big shortage of drivers in both the U.S. However, the technology is not just truckers’ pay. “If load prices get pushed
and Europe. The American Trucking Asso- a way to make the job more attractive to down with this technology, the company
ciations pegs the current U.S. shortage at human drivers; it’s potentially a way for will say, ‘You didn’t do as much driving, so
about 50,000 drivers and predicts that a trucking companies to fill in for drivers you don’t make as much,’” says Mugriyev.
total of nearly 900,000 new drivers will be who aren’t available. And if self-driving
needed over the next eight years. “We have systems someday become accepted as Safety questions
customers calling us up saying they’ll buy capable of standing in for drivers, why Is Otto’s technology up to safely pilot-
10 new trucks from us if we can provide keep human drivers on at all? After all, ing 80,000 pounds of truck down a busy
the drivers, too,” says Carl Johan Almqvist, drivers account for a third of the per-mile highway? Having a driver in the cab won’t
who heads product safety at Volvo Trucks. costs of operating a truck. do much to make up for any shortcomings
70
71
72
Why It Matters
The technology
offers a secure and
extremely convenient
method of payment
but could raise
privacy concerns.
Key Players
- Face++
- Baidu
- Alibaba
Availability
Now
By Will Knight
S
hortly after walking through the Technology from Face++ is already Facial recognition has existed for
door at Face++, a Chinese startup being used in several popular apps. It is decades, but only now is it accurate enough
valued at roughly a billion dollars, possible to transfer money through Alipay, to be used in secure financial transactions.
I see my face, unshaven and look- a mobile payment app used by more than The new versions use deep learning, an
ing a bit jet-lagged, flash up on a 120 million people in China, using only artificial-intelligence technique that is
large screen near the entrance. your face as credentials. Meanwhile, Didi, especially effective for image recognition
Having been added to a database, my China’s dominant ride-hailing company, because it makes a computer zero in on
face now provides automatic access to the uses the Face++ software to let passengers the facial features that will most reliably
building. It can also be used to monitor my confirm that the person behind the wheel identify a person (see “10 Breakthrough
movements through each room inside. As is a legitimate driver. (A “liveness” test, Technologies 2013: Deep Learning”).
I tour the offices of Face++ (pronounced designed to prevent anyone from duping “The face recognition market is huge,”
“face plus plus”), located in a suburb of the system with a photo, requires people says Shiliang Zhang, an assistant profes-
Beijing, I see it appear on several more being scanned to move their head or speak sor at Peking University who specializes
screens, automatically captured from while the app scans them.) in machine learning and image process-
countless angles by the company’s soft- The technology figures to take off in ing. Zhang heads a lab not far from the
ware. On one screen a video shows the soft- China first because of the country’s atti- offices of Face++. When I arrived, his stu-
ware tracking 83 different points on my tudes toward surveillance and privacy. dents were working away furiously in a
face simultaneously. It’s a little creepy, but Unlike, say, the United States, China has a dozen or so cubicles. “In China security is
undeniably impressive. large centralized database of ID card pho- very important, and we also have lots of
Over the past few years, computers tos. During my time at Face++, I saw how people,” he says. “Lots of companies are
have become incredibly good at recogniz- local governments are using its software to working on it.”
ing faces, and the technology is expanding identify suspected criminals in video from One such company is Baidu, which
quickly in China in the interest of both surveillance cameras, which are omni- operates China’s most popular search
surveillance and convenience. Face recog- present in the country. This is especially engine, along with other services. Baidu
nition might transform everything from impressive—albeit somewhat dystopian— researchers have published papers show-
policing to the way people interact every because the footage analyzed is far from ing that their software rivals most humans
day with banks, stores, and transporta- perfect, and because mug shots or other in its ability to recognize a face. In Janu-
tion services. images on file may be several years old. ary, the company proved this by taking
COURTESY OF FACE++
74
omnipresent in China.
Employees simply show
already working with the government of taurants are looking to the technology to
Wuzhen, a historic tourist destination, to make the customer experience smoother.
provide access to many of its attractions Not only can he pay for things this way,
without a ticket. This involves scanning he says, but the staff in some coffee shops
millions of faces in a database to find a are now alerted by a facial recognition
match, which Baidu says it can do with system when he walks in: “They say,
99 percent accuracy. ‘Hello, Mr. Tang.’”
75
elicate quantum
ere d exp
wh e
om ri m
ro en
e ts
th
to
ar
in
e
n
ha
ow
pp
rs d
eni
Daniël Bouman pee
ng a
t
ultra-cold tempe
her
ra
c
t
r
ure
a
se
s.
re
h
ec
uT
Q
76
Breakthrough
The fabrication of
stable qubits, the
basic unit of quantum
computers.
Why It Matters
Quantum computers
could be exponentially
faster at running
artificial-intelligence
programs and handling
Practical
Quantum Computers
complex simulations
and scheduling
problems. They
could even create
uncrackable encryption.
Key Players
- QuTech
- Intel
- Microsoft
- Google
- IBM
Availability
4 to 5 years
By Russ Juskalian
O
ne of the labs at QuTech, a Dutch
research institute, is responsi-
ble for some of the world’s most
advanced work on quantum
computing, but it looks like an
HVAC testing facility. Tucked away in a
quiet corner of the applied sciences build-
ing at Delft University of Technology, the
space is devoid of people. Buzzing with
resonant waves as if occupied by a swarm
of electric katydids, it is cluttered by tan-
gles of insulated tubes, wires, and control
hardware erupting from big blue cylinders
on three and four legs.
Inside the blue cylinders—essen-
tially supercharged refrigerators—spooky
quantum-mechanical things are happen-
ing where nanowires, semiconductors, and
superconductors meet at just a hair above
absolute zero. It’s here, down at the limits
of physics, that solid materials give rise to
so-called quasiparticles, whose unusual
behavior gives them the potential to serve
as the key components of quantum com-
puters. And this lab in particular has taken
big steps toward finally bringing those
computers to fruition. In a few years they
could rewrite encryption, materials sci-
ence, pharmaceutical research, and arti-
ficial intelligence.
Every year quantum computing comes
up as a candidate for this Breakthrough
Technologies list, and every year we reach
the same conclusion: not yet. Indeed,
for years qubits and quantum comput-
ers existed mainly on paper, or in fragile
experiments to determine their feasibil-
ity. (The Canadian company D-Wave Sys-
tems has been selling machines it calls
built.
being
ally
actu-
are
designs
theoretical
Previously
78
79
gets down to just
above absolute zero,
making quantum
experiments possible
on tiny chips
deep inside it. On
subsequent pages
are scenes from the
Delft lab where the
experiments are
prepared.
TECHNOLOGYREVIEW.COM
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IBM, Intel, and Microsoft, among others— ing the rope, pulling on it, whatever,” is on target to build a 49-qubit system by
for both research and the development of says Kouwenhoven, the knots remain as soon as a year from now. The target of
assorted technologies needed to actually and “you don’t change the information.” around 50 qubits isn’t an arbitrary one. It’s
build a working machine: microelectron- Such stability would allow researchers to a threshold, known as quantum suprem-
ics, complex circuits, and control software. scale up quantum computers by substan- acy, beyond which no classical supercom-
The project at Delft, led by Leo tially reducing the computational power puter would be capable of handling the
K ouwenhoven, a professor who was required for error correction. exponential growth in memory and com-
recently hired by Microsoft, aims to over- Kouwenhoven’s work relies on munications bandwidth needed to sim-
come one of the most long-standing obsta- manipulating unique quasiparticles that ulate its quantum counterpart. In other
cles to building quantum computers: the weren’t even discovered until 2012. And words, the top supercomputer systems can
fact that qubits, the basic units of quantum it’s just one of several impressive steps currently do all the same things that five-
information, are extremely susceptible to being taken. In the same lab, Lieven to 20-qubit quantum computers can, but
noise and therefore error. For qubits to be Vandersypen, backed by Intel, is showing at around 50 qubits this becomes physi-
useful, they must achieve both quantum how quantum circuits can be manufac- cally impossible.
superposition (a property something like tured on traditional silicon wafers. All the academic and corporate quan-
being in two physical states simultane- Quantum computers will be particu- tum researchers I spoke with agreed that
ously) and entanglement (a phenomenon larly suited to factoring large numbers somewhere between 30 and 100 qubits—
where pairs of qubits are linked so that (making it easy to crack many of today’s particularly qubits stable enough to per-
what happens to one can instantly affect encryption techniques and probably pro- form a wide range of computations for
the other, even when they’re physically viding uncrackable replacements), solv- longer durations—is where quantum com-
separated). These delicate conditions are ing complex optimization problems, and puters start to have commercial value. And
easily upset by the slightest disturbance, executing machine-learning algorithms. as soon as two to five years from now, such
like vibrations or fluctuating electric fields. And there will be applications nobody has systems are likely to be for sale. Eventually,
People have long wrestled with this yet envisioned. expect 100,000-qubit systems, which will
problem in efforts to build quantum com- Soon, however, we might have a bet- disrupt the materials, chemistry, and drug
puters, which could make it possible to ter idea of what they can do. Until now, industries by making accurate molecular-
solve problems so complex they exceed researchers have built fully programma- scale models possible for the discovery of
the reach of today’s best computers. But ble five-qubit computers and more frag- new materials and drugs. And a million-
now Kouwenhoven and his colleagues ile 10- to 20-qubit test systems. Neither physical-qubit system, whose general
believe the qubits they are creating could kind of machine is capable of much. But computing applications are still difficult to
eventually be inherently protected—as sta- the head of Google’s quantum comput- even fathom? It’s conceivable, says Neven,
ble as knots in a rope. “Despite deform- ing effort, Harmut Neven, says his team “on the inside of 10 years.”
81
REVERSING
Paralysis
Breakthrough
Wireless brain-body
electronic interfaces Scientists are making remarkable
to bypass damage to
By
the nervous system.
progress at using brain implants to
Why It Matters
restore the freedom of movement
that spinal cord injuries take away.
Antonio Regalado
Thousands of people
suffer paralyzing
injuries every year.
“G
Key Players
- École Polytechnique
Fédérale de Lausanne o, go!” was the thought
- Wyss Center for Bio and racing through Grégoire
Neuroengineering Courtine’s mind.
- University of Pittsburgh The French neuro-
- Case Western Reserve
scientist was watching a
University
macaque monkey as it hunched aggres-
Availability sively at one end of a treadmill. His team
10 to 15 years had used a blade to slice halfway through
the animal’s spinal cord, paralyzing its
right leg. Now Courtine wanted to prove
he could get the monkey walking again.
To do it, he and colleagues had installed a
recording device beneath its skull, touch-
ing its motor cortex, and sutured a pad
of flexible electrodes around the animal’s
spinal cord, below the injury. A wire-
83
84
Milestones in
Neural Bypass
1961
Physician and inventor William F. House tests
the first cochlear implant to restore hearing.
The devices will go on to benefit more than
250,000 people.
1998
Doctors install a single electrode in the brain
of a paralyzed man unable to speak. He uses it
to communicate through a computer.
2008
A monkey’s brain signals are sent over the
Internet from the U.S. to Japan, causing a
robot to walk on a treadmill.
2013
U.S. regulators approve a “bionic eye” sold
by the company Second Sight. It uses a
chip sutured to the retina to bypass injured
photoreceptors.
ALAIN HER ZOG / EPFL; COURTESY OF THE W YSS CENTER
2014-2015
Ohio doctors launch efforts to “reanimate”
the arms of two different paralyzed men. The
thoughts of each are transmitted to electrodes
on their arms, causing their hands to open and
shut.
Top left: A close-up Top right: Flexible electrodes Above: A model
of a brain-reading developed to simulate the spinal of a wireless 2016
chip, bristling with cord. neurocommunication 28-year-old Nathan Copeland operates a
electrodes. device sits on a skull. robotic hand that, via a brain implant, allows
him to “feel” the fingers. He fist-bumps Barack
Obama during a presidential visit to a lab in
Pittsburgh.
85
86
same type Courtine used in the monkeys. other spectacular brain-control feats
Made of silicon, and smaller than a post- haven’t had any broader practical use.
age stamp, they bristle with a hundred The technology remains too radical and
hair-size metal probes that can “listen” as too complex to get out of the lab. “Twenty
neurons fire off commands. years of work and nothing in the clinic!”
To complete the bypass, the Case Courtine exclaims, brushing his hair back.
everyday self. They want
team, led by Robert Kirsch and Bolu “We keep pushing the limits, but it is an
Ajiboye, also slid more than 16 fine elec- important question if this entire field will
trodes into the muscles of the man’s arm ever have a product.”
and hand. In videos of the experiment, Courtine’s laboratory is located in a
the volunteer can be seen slowly raising vertiginous glass-and-steel building in
his arm with the help of a spring-loaded Geneva that also houses a $100 million
“People would prefer to be restored to their
arm rest, and willing his hand to open center that the Swiss billionaire Hansjörg
and close. He even raises a cup with a Wyss funded specifically to solve the
straw to his lips. Without the system, he remaining technical obstacles to neuro-
can’t do any of that. technologies like the spinal cord bypass.
Just try sitting on your hands for a It’s hiring experts from medical-device
to be reanimated.”
day. That will give you an idea of the shat- makers and Swiss watch companies and
tering consequences of spinal cord injury. has outfitted clean rooms where gold
You can’t scratch your nose or tousle a wires are printed onto rubbery electrodes
child’s hair. “But if you have this,” says that can stretch as our bodies do.
Courtine, reaching for a red espresso cup The head of the center is John
and raising it to his mouth with an actor’s Donoghue, an American who led the early
exaggerated motion, “it changes your life.” development of brain implants in the U.S.
The Case results, pending publica- (see “Implanting Hope,” March 2005) and
tion in a medical journal, are a part of a who moved to Geneva two years ago. He
broader effort to use implanted electron- is now trying to assemble in one place
ics to restore various senses and abili- the enormous technical resources and
ties. Besides treating paralysis, scientists talent—skilled neuroscientists, technol-
hope to use so-called neural prosthetics ogists, clinicians—needed to create com-
to reverse blindness with chips placed mercially viable systems.
in the eye, and maybe restore memo- Among Donoghue’s top priorities is a
ries lost to Alzheimer’s disease (see “10 “neurocomm,” an ultra-compact wireless
Breakthrough Technologies 2013: Mem- device that can collect data from the brain
ory Implants”). at Internet speed. “A radio inside your
And they know it could work. Con- head,” Donoghue calls it, and “the most
sider cochlear implants, which use a sophisticated brain communicator in the
microphone to relay signals directly to world.” The matchbox-size prototypes are
the auditory nerve, routing around non- made of biocompatible titanium with a
working parts of the inner ear. Videos of sapphire window. Courtine used an ear-
wide-eyed deaf children hearing their lier, bulkier version in his monkey tests.
mothers for the first time go viral on the As complex as they are, and as slow
Internet every month. More than 250,000 as progress has been, neural bypasses are
cases of deafness have been treated. worth pursuing because patients desire
But it’s been harder to turn neural them, Donoghue says. “Ask someone if
prosthetics into something that helps par- they would like to move their own arm,” he
alyzed people. A patient first used a brain says. “People would prefer to be restored
probe to move a computer cursor across to their everyday self. They want to be
a screen back in 1998. That and several reanimated.”
87
88
Breakthrough
Malware that takes
control of webcams,
video recorders,
and other consumer
Botnets of Things
devices to cause
widespread Internet
outages.
Why It Matters
Botnets based on
this software are
disrupting larger and
larger swaths of the
Internet—and getting
harder to stop.
Key Players
- Whoever created the
Mirai botnet software
- Anyone who runs a poorly
secured device online—
including you?
Availability
Now
By Bruce Schneier
B
otnets have existed for at least a an Internet infrastructure provider par- the number of vulnerable devices will go
decade. As early as 2000, hack- tially offline. Taking down that provider, up by orders of magnitude over the next
ers were breaking into com- Dyn, resulted in a cascade of effects that few years.
puters over the Internet and ultimately caused a long list of high- What do hackers do with them?
controlling them en masse from profile websites, including Twitter and Many things.
centralized systems. Among other things, Netflix, to temporarily disappear from the Botnets are used to commit click
the hackers used the combined comput- Internet. More attacks are sure to follow: fraud. Click fraud is a scheme to fool
ing power of these botnets to launch dis- the botnet that attacked Dyn was created advertisers into thinking that people are
tributed denial-of-service attacks, which with publicly available malware called clicking on, or viewing, their ads. There
flood websites with traffic to take them Mirai that largely automates the process are lots of ways to commit click fraud, but
down. of coöpting computers. the easiest is probably for the attacker
But now the problem is getting worse, The best defense would be for every- to embed a Google ad in a Web page he
thanks to a flood of cheap webcams, dig- thing online to run only secure software, owns. Google ads pay a site owner accord-
ital video recorders, and other gadgets so botnets couldn’t be created in the first ing to the number of people who click on
in the “Internet of things.” Because these place. This isn’t going to happen anytime them. The attacker instructs all the com-
devices typically have little or no secu- soon. Internet of things devices are not puters on his botnet to repeatedly visit
rity, hackers can take them over with lit- designed with security in mind and often the Web page and click on the ad. Dot,
tle effort. And that makes it easier than have no way of being patched. The things dot, dot, PROFIT! If the botnet makers
ever to build huge botnets that take down that have become part of Mirai botnets, figure out more effective ways to siphon
much more than one site at a time. for example, will be vulnerable until their revenue from big companies online, we
In October, a botnet made up of owners throw them away. Botnets will get could see the whole advertising model of
100,000 compromised gadgets knocked larger and more powerful simply because the Internet crumble.
90
up by orders
vulnerable devices will go
2011 8.0 billion
few years.
2012 9.3 billion
91
Reviews
“The Relentless Pace of
gutting of its middle class. Indeed, in his
farewell speech to thousands in a packed
convention hall in Chicago, President
Automation” Obama warned: “The next wave of eco-
nomic dislocations won’t come from over-
seas. It will come from the relentless pace
Artificial intelligence could dramatically improve the economy and aspects of everyday of automation that makes a lot of good
life, but we need to invent ways to make sure everyone benefits. middle-class jobs obsolete.”
The White House report points in par-
By David Rotman ticular to the current wave of AI, which
it describes as having begun around
2010. That’s when advances in machine
learning and the increasing availability
of big data and enhanced computation
Last October, Uber had one of its self- It estimates that automated vehicles power began providing computers with
driving trucks make a beer run, travel- could threaten or alter 2.2 million to 3.1 unprecedented capabilities such as the
ing 200 kilometers down the interstate to million existing U.S. jobs. That includes ability to accurately recognize images.
deliver a cargo of Budweiser from Fort Col- the 1.7 million jobs driving tractor- The report says greater deployment of
lins to Colorado Springs. A person rode in trailers, the heavy rigs that dominate the AI and automation could boost economic
the truck but spent most of the trip in the highways. Long-haul drivers, it says, “cur- growth by creating new types of jobs and
sleeper berth, monitoring the automated rently enjoy a wage premium over others improving efficiency in many businesses.
system. (The test came just a few weeks in the labor market with the same level of But it also points to the negative effects:
after Uber had announced its driverless educational attainment.” In other words, job destruction and related increases in
car service in Pittsburgh.) The self-driving if truck drivers lose their jobs, they’ll be income inequality. For now at least, “less
truck developed by Uber’s recently acquired particularly screwed. educated workers are more likely to be
Otto unit reflects remarkable technological It is hard to read the White House replaced by automation than highly edu-
achievements (see “10 Breakthrough Tech- report without thinking about the presi- cated ones.” The report notes that so far
nologies: Self-Driving Trucks,” page 62). dential election that happened six weeks automation has displaced few higher-skill
It also provides yet another indicator of a before it was published. The election was workers, but it adds: “The skills in which
looming shift in the economy that could decided by a few Midwest states in the humans have maintained a comparative
have deep political consequences. heart of what has long been called the advantage are likely to erode over time as
It is uncertain how long it will take Rust Belt. And the key issue for many AI and new technologies become more
for driverless trucks and cars to take over voters there was the economy—or, more sophisticated.”
the roads. For now, any so- precisely, the shortage Labor economists have been point-
called autonomous vehicle “Artificial Intelligence, of relatively well-paying ing out the employment consequences
will require a driver, albeit Automation, and the Economy” jobs. In the rhetoric of the of new digital technologies for several
one who is often passive. Executive Office of the President campaign, much of the years, and the White House report duti-
December 2016
But the potential loss of blame for lost jobs went fully lays out many of those findings. As it
millions of jobs is Exhibit A in a report to globalization and the movement of notes, the imminent problem is not that
issued by the outgoing U.S. administra- manufacturing facilities overseas. “Make robots will hasten the day when there is
tion in late December. Written by Presi- America great again” was, in some ways, a no need for human workers. That end-of-
dent Obama’s top economic and science lament for the days when steel and other work scenario remains speculative, and
advisors, “Artificial Intelligence, Automa- products were made domestically by a the report pays it little heed. Instead, it
tion, and the Economy” is a clear-eyed thriving middle class. is far more concerned with the transi-
look at how fast-developing AI and auto- But many economists argue that auto- tion in our economy that is already under
mation technologies are affecting jobs, mation bears much more blame than glo- way: the types of jobs available are rap-
and it offers a litany of suggestions for balization for the decline of jobs in the idly changing. That’s why the report is
how to deal with the upheaval. region’s manufacturing sector and the so timely. It is an attempt to elevate into
92
Washington political circles the discus- employment. Automation has been dis- Left out
sion of how automation and, increas- placing workers from a variety of occupa- It is often argued that technological
ingly, AI are affecting employment, and tions, including ones in manufacturing. progress always leads to massive shifts in
why it’s time to finally adopt educational And now, he says, AI and the quickening employment but that at the end of the day
and labor policies to address the plight of deployment of robots in various indus- the economy grows as new jobs are cre-
workers either displaced by technology or tries, including auto manufacturing, ated. However, that’s a far too facile way of
ill suited for the new opportunities. metal products, pharmaceuticals, food looking at the impact of AI and automa-
DELCAN & COMPANY
It is “glaringly obvious,” says Daron service, and warehouses, could exacer- tion on jobs today. Joel Mokyr, a leading
Acemoglu, an economist at MIT, that bate the effects. “We haven’t even begun economic historian at Northwestern Uni-
political leaders are “totally unprepared” the debate,” he warns. “We’ve just been versity, has spent his career studying how
to deal with how automation is changing papering over the issues.” people and societies have experienced the
93
career help.
0.6 Such generous benefits are unlikely to
.45
be offered anytime soon, acknowledges
0.4 Muro, who has worked with manufac-
.22 turing communities in the Midwest (see
.17
0.2 .11 “It’s the Jobs, Stupid,” January/February
2017). However, the presidential elec-
tion, he suggests, was a wake-up call for
France Germany Korea Canada Japan United States
many people. In some ways the result
was “secretly about automation,” he says.
radical transitions spurred by advances in least by the federal government. Accord- “There is a great sense of anxiety and
technology, such as the Industrial Revo- ing to the White House report, the U.S. frustration out there.”
lution that began in the late 18th century. spends around 0.1 percent of its GDP on The question, then, is whether the
The current disruptions are faster and programs designed to help people deal looming onslaught of AI will make exist-
“more intensive,” Mokyr says. “It is noth- with changes in the workplace—far less ing tensions even worse.
ing like what we have seen in the past, and than other developed economies. And
the issue is whether the system can adapt this funding has declined over the last Cloudy days
as it did in the past.” 30 years. No one actually knows how AI and
Mokyr describes himself as “less pessi- The picture is actually even worse than advanced automation will affect future
mistic” than others about whether AI will those numbers alone suggest, says Mark job opportunities. Predictions about what
create plenty of jobs and opportunities to Muro, a senior fellow at the Brookings types of jobs will be replaced and how fast
make up for the ones that are lost. And Institution. Existing federal “readjust- vary widely. One commonly cited study
even if it does not, the alternative—tech- ment programs,” he says, include a col- from 2013 estimated that roughly 47 per-
nological stagnation—is far worse. But lection of small initiatives—some dating cent of U.S. jobs could be lost over the next
that still leaves a troubling quandary: how back to the 1960s—addressing everything decade or two because they involve work
to help the workers left behind. “There is from military-base closings to the needs that is easily automated. Other reports—
no question that in the modern capitalist of Appalachian coal-mining communi- noting that jobs often involve multiple
system your occupation is your identity,” ties. But none are specifically designed to tasks, some of which might be easily auto-
he says. And the pain and humiliation felt help people whose jobs have disappeared mated while others are not—have come
by those whose jobs have been replaced by because of automation. Not only is the up with a smaller percentage of occupa-
automation is “clearly a major issue,” he overall funding limited, he says, but the tions that machines could make obso-
SOURCES: BROOKINGS INSTITUTION, OECD 2016
adds. “I don’t see an easy way of solving help is too piecemeal to take on a broad lete. A recent study by the Organization
it. It’s an inevitable consequence of tech- labor-force disruption like automation. for Economic Cooperation and Develop-
nological progress.” Some observers, spearheaded by ment estimates that around 9 percent of
The problem is that the United States a clique of Silicon Valley insiders, have U.S. jobs are at high risk. But the other
has been particularly bad over the last few begun arguing for a universal basic part of the employment equation—how
decades at helping people who’ve lost out income as a way to help those unable many jobs will be created—is essentially
during periods of technological change. to find work. Wisely, the White House unknowable. In 1980, who could have
Their social, educational, and financial report rejects such a solution as “giving predicted this decade’s market for app
problems have been largely ignored, at up on the possibility of workers’ remain- developers?
94
In the past, new technologies have system much more effectively. For exam- share of jobs that are “routine”—econo-
greatly expanded overall employment ple, some areas of the United States have mists’ shorthand for ones that are easily
opportunities. But no particular economic successfully connected training programs automated. Areas with a high percentage
rule dictates that this will always be true. at community colleges to local companies of routine jobs overwhelmingly went for
And some economists warn that we must and their needs, he says, but other regions Donald Trump and his message of turning
not be overly sanguine about the conse- have not, and the federal government has back the clock to “make American great
quences of automation and AI. done little in this realm. As a result, he again.”
“AI is very much in its infancy,” says says, “large areas have been left behind.” The economic anxiety over AI and
MIT’s Acemoglu. “We don’t really know One problem the growing adoption automation is real and shouldn’t be dis-
what it can do. It’s too soon to know its of AI could make much worse is income missed. But there is no reversing tech-
impact on jobs.” A key part of the answer, inequality (see “Technology and Inequal- nological progress. We will need the
he says, will be to what extent the tech- ity,” November/December 2014) and the economic boost from these technolo-
nologies are used to replace humans or, gies to improve the
alternatively, to help them carry out their
The economic anxiety over AI and automation lackluster produc-
jobs and expand their capabilities. Per- tivity growth that is
sonal computers, the Internet, and other
is real and shouldn’t be dismissed. But there is threatening many
technologies of the last several decades no reversing technological progress. people’s financial
did replace some bank tellers, cashiers, prospects. Further-
and others whose jobs involved routine sharp divisions between the geographic more, the progress AI promises in medi-
tasks. But mainly these technologies com- areas that benefit and those that don’t. cine and other areas could greatly improve
plemented people’s abilities and let them We don’t need the expert-written White how we live. Yet if we fail to use the tech-
do more at work, says Acemoglu. Will that House report to tell us that the impact of nology in a way that benefits as many peo-
pattern continue? “With robots, and down digital technologies and automation in ple as possible (see “Who Will Own the
the line with artificial intelligence, the large swaths of the Midwest is very dif- Robots?” July/August 2015), we risk fuel-
replacement part might be far stronger,” ferent from the effects in Silicon Valley. A ing public resentment of automation and
he cautions. post-election analysis showed that one of its creators. The danger is not so much
Not only might automation and AI the strongest predictors of voting behav- a direct political backlash—though the
prove particularly prone to replacing ior was not a county’s unemployment rate history of the Luddites suggests it could
human workers, but the effects might not or whether it was wealthy or poor but its happen—but, rather, a failure to embrace
be offset by the government policies that and invest in the technology’s abundant
have softened the blow of such transi- possibilities.
SOURCES: WHITE HOUSE AI REPORT, BASED ON BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS; FREY AND
tions in the past. Initiatives like improved The Poor Get Poorer Despite the excitement around AI, it
retraining for workers who have lost their Low-paying jobs are particularly vulnerable. is still in its early days. Driverless vehi-
jobs to automation, and increased finan- cles are fine on sunny days but struggle in
cial protections for those seeking new the fog or the snow, and they still can’t be
Percentage of jobs at likely risk of automation
100
careers, are steps recommended by the 83%
trusted in emergency situations. AI sys-
White House report. But there appears to tems can spot complex patterns in mas-
be no political appetite for such programs. 80 sive data sets but still lack the common
OSBORNE (2013); COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS
“I’m very worried that the next wave sense of a child or the innate language
[of AI and automation] will hit and we 60 skills of a two-year-old. There are still very
won’t have the supports in place,” says difficult technical challenges ahead. But
Lawrence Katz, an economist at Harvard. 40 31% if AI is going to achieve its full economic
Katz has published research showing that potential, we’ll need to pay as much atten-
large investments in secondary educa- tion to the social and employment chal-
20
tion in the early 1900s helped the nation 4%
lenges as we do to the technical ones.
make the shift from an agriculture-based
economy to a manufacturing one. And Less than $20 $20 to $40 More than $40 David Rotman is the editor of MIT
now, he says, we could use our education per hour per hour per hour Technology Review.
95
Virtually There
Traditional movies were the popular art form of the
20th century. Is virtual reality what comes next?
By Ty Burr
96
97
jected on a screen for multiple viewers. We of development, since exploring and inter- Quill VR illustration software, developed
live in a time of cultural and technologi- acting with a fictional reality is the plot of at Story Studio, to create a vivid impres-
cal upheaval, and traditional cinema was most video games. Other, more narrative sionistic flow of color that evolves around,
the art form of the 20th century. Distribu- virtual-reality experiences, available for behind, and even beneath a viewer. Dear
tion points are multiplying (TV, computer, purchase or free in the online VR stores Angelica does move forward in linear fash-
phone) while viewing lengths run from that serve as visual entry points once you ion, but it doesn’t tell a story so much as
binge-watched multi-hour TV episodes to put on the Rift, the Gear, or the Vive, feel unfold like a poignant train of thought,
10-second Snapchats. remarkably fresh. They point the way for- and you can sense the filmmakers taking
Once a technological Holy Grail or ward toward … something. baby steps toward a new visual and psy-
the province of science fiction films like Sometimes that something can be star- chological grammar.
Brainstorm (1983), The Lawnmower Man tlingly beautiful. The 20-minute Notes on These are beguiling visions, evidence
(1992), The Matrix (1999), and Avatar Blindness: Into the Darkness was much of new ways of expressing human experi-
(2009), virtual-reality technology was praised at the now-annual virtual-real- ences, owing little to other media. Yet there
for years bedeviled by image-rendering ity sidebar at the Sundance Film Festival are still stumbling blocks. For one thing,
glitches and the vertigo last year, and it went on to VR hardware is still very clumsy. You have
that can afflict users trying Notes on Blindness win festival prizes through- to put on the headset, set up the movement
to navigate a poorly cre- free for Samsung Gear or out 2016. Based on the dia- tracking devices, log on to the computer,
ated virtual space. It’s hard Google Cardboard ries of the late John Hull, and avoid tripping over all those cords as
to enjoy a fantasy world a British writer and editor you grope blindly about the rec room. It
Dear Angelica
when you feel you’re about free for Oculus who lost his sight at age 45, is as if Thomas Edison had told everyone
to throw up. But now the Notes uses Hull’s recorded that they needed to rewire their homes and
future may finally be here. Invisible voice as guide to an other- assemble the projectors themselves if they
free for most head-mounted
Consumer-ready VR hel- displays on the Jaunt channel
world: a 360° panoramic ever wanted to watch a motion picture—
mets like the Oculus Rift, London park, ink-black and that they then had to put the projector
the Samsung Gear V12, Remembering Pearl Harbor except for silhouetted out- on over their heads.
free for the Vive Most virtual-reality experiences that
Sony PlayStation VR, and lines, that is illuminated
the HTC Vive plunge view- Paul McCartney: Early Days by each sound we hear. A attempt to combine the narrative forward
ers into immersive 3-D free on the Jaunt channel passing jogger’s feet seem momentum of film with the immersive
environments where they to bioluminesce with every exploration of VR end up highlighting
The Rose and I
can move within a storyline free for most head-mounted
clip-clop; the wind through the worst of both mediums. Compared
or game space without feel- displays from Penrose Studios the trees brings imagined with the promise of Notes on Blindness
ing sick. They’re the new- color to branches and leaves. and Dear Angelica, these “entertainments”
Allumette represent the current reality of virtual real-
est iterations of headsets An entire landscape of syn-
free from Penrose Studios
that have been around for esthesia comes into being ity, and it’s worth talking about what they
decades (I tested the CyberMaxx helmet before our eyes and ears. Yes, it would are and how you experience them.
for Entertainment Weekly way back in and does work on a rectangular film or TV The experiences are different on dif-
1994), and they all descend from the first screen, but not nearly as convincingly as ferent headsets. Google Cardboard, an
head-mounted display unit developed this immersive inner-yet-outer experience. appealingly low-entry headset, lets you
by computer scientist Ivan Sutherland Even more striking is Dear Angelica, play VR content on an iPhone or Android
in 1968, a behemoth so heavy that it was a highlight of this January’s Sundance VR phone slotted into a cardboard box; it’s the
bolted to the ceiling and nicknamed the showcase. Directed by Saschka Unseld VR equivalent of a Victorian stereoscope
“Sword of Damocles.” and developed in the skunk works of Ocu- or a later generation’s GAF View-Master,
Meanwhile, content creators—visual lus Story Studio, it’s a memory play told and while it’s funky and the visuals can
artists and game developers, filmmak- from the point of view of a young woman, get mighty pixelated, it works. The Ocu-
SARAH SHATZ/U SA NET WORK
ers and other storytellers—are trying to voiced by Mae Whitman, as she reminisces lus Rift, available at electronics outlets for
figure out how it might work. (See an about her late mother, a larger-than-life about $600 (hand controls are an addi-
interview with Google’s principal film- film actress, voiced by Geena Davis. As tional $200), offers vastly improved visual
maker for VR, Jessica Brillhart, on page with Notes on Blindness, there’s no attempt resolution but requires a PC system with
28.) Gaming software and networks rep- to capture a photographic reality; rather, state-of-the-art graphic capability (at least
resent the most fertile and obvious center the artist Wesley Allsbrook has used the $880) and a decent amount of technical
98
savvy to use. The more recently arrived lets you access archival historical record-nately, that’s where the innovation stops.
HTC Vive has all that plus a pair of laser ings and material by wandering around Almost all the dialogue-heavy scenes play
sensors that have to be precisely positioned and picking things up; it’s well done, but out within a typical film screen, with little
on your walls so that the user’s movements it plays like a CD-ROM the company exploration of the medium’s panoramic
can be accurately tracked. (The Rift has never got around to releasing in the 1990s.possibilities. One appeal of VR drama is its
a similar sensor that stands on a table- Jaunt also has some sort of deal with potential for surprise—for things to hap-
top and looks like a microphone but isn’t.) Paul McCartney that has resulted in VR pen where you least expect them to.
I didn’t test-drive the Samsung Gear or concert documentaries (good) and Paul Oshmyansky’s film demonstrates a
other headsets for this article. McCartney: Early Days, which simply puts few things: first, that VR narrative enter-
What are we able to dream while wear- Macca in a room and projects slide photos tainment may live closer to the aesthetics
ing these brave new goggles? In the vir- over his face while he talks about the young
of theater than film (reverse theater-in-
tual stores encountered once you put on Beatles (not so good). the-round, to be exact, with the viewer
the headsets—visual malls that seem to Some VR content houses have thought standing at the center of a 360° radius
hover in space—you can pay for, collect, harder about the medium’s possibilities. of action); and second, that a workable
and access games, apps, social-media plat- Penrose Studios has created two animated language of shots or other means of con-
forms, and a lot of what could be termed shorts for most VR platforms: The Rose veying information and directing audi-
short VR programming, little of which is ence attention has yet to be
terribly interesting. You can watch brief discovered. For now, what’s
comic skits—YouTube product busted out
These are beguiling visions, evidence still being sold in most
into 3-D—and travelogues that reinforce of new ways of expressing human cases is novelty—the fact
the View-Master comparison. experiences, owing little to other media. that you’re watching some-
Doug Liman, the director of such Hol- thing supposedly more real-
lywood hits as Swingers (1996) and The and I and the excellent Allumette com- istic than anything before—and not the
Bourne Identity (2002), has produced and bine crude stop-motion-style graphics with experience itself. But realism shouldn’t
co-directed a VR series called Invisible engaging stories and a genuinely novel be the goal; a compelling immersive envi-
for Jaunt, a VR production company and vantage point in which the viewer seems ronment, whether it’s reality- or fantasy-
online store. In five episodes of about six to hover in space; the Vive’s motion track- based, should be.
minutes each, a clunky thriller storyline ing especially allows you to lean in, peer What’s clear is that we’re just at the
about invisible cousins comes to grief on around, and get up close to the characters. beginning of VR’s long gestational period,
soap-opera-level acting, dreadful writing, For the more adventurous, there’s a but the medium is established. The finan-
and an aesthetic that still owes much to wealth of what might be called cottage- cial backing is there, as is the creative and
traditional film. Each time the image cuts industry VR on the Internet, made by technological drive to improve the experi-
to a new angle, viewers have to joltingly unaffiliated creators curious to push the ence. Eventually there will be a project (or
reorient themselves in space. Still, a chase boundaries of a new medium. Most of it two, or three) that will transform virtual
scene in Episode 5 shows some initiative involves 360° filmmaking, but only some reality from a curiosity to a genuine mass-
in visualizing a 360° dramatic landscape. of it is in 3-D, and very little involves appeal canvas for expression and enter-
Similarly, a short clip, Mr. Robot VR, motion tracking. tainment. Works like Allumette, Notes on
available on a number of headsets, does The high point of cottage-industry VR Blindness, and especially Dear Angelica
little other than put the characters on so far may be last year’s Career Opportu- point the way toward what VR might
a Coney Island Ferris wheel and allow nities in Organized Crime, which billed yet become, but it’s almost impossible to
the show’s creator, Sam Esmail, to mess itself as the first 360° feature-length VR describe what that may be. A movie that
around with the new technology. Liman’s movie. Directed by virtual-reality enthu- we seem to live? An adventure that dou-
Swingers star Jon Favreau—now a major siast (and radiologist) Alex O shmyansky, bles as a world? An immersive head trip, a
Hollywood director himself (Elf, The Jun- Career Opportunities is about as crude as tour of this and other planets, just another
gle Book)—has a more promising interac- they come—it looks like something made way to numb ourselves with fantasy? We
tive project called Gnomes & Goblins in in borrowed offices and someone’s garage, lack words to describe the future because
the works; a preview is currently available and in fact it was. But there’s a story of we haven’t invented it yet.
exclusively on the Vive. sorts there, about a Russian mobster with a
Remembering Pearl Harbor, produced human resources department and a slacker Ty Burr is a film critic for the Boston
by Time Life and available on the Vive, kid who locates his inner badass. Unfortu- Globe.
99
Demo
INSIDE
FAR-OUT
By Katherine Bourzac
100
Photographs by
Rachel Jerome Ferraro
THE
GLASS LAB
101
102
103
Potential
products
are subject
to every
kind of
abuse
engineers
can think
of and
quantify.
104
105
1 2
106
few minutes.”
Ellison giddily shows off a sample of
his Lycurgus-inspired glass, holding it up
to a window to demonstrate the effect.
“Now I know in detail why it does this,” he
says. Since he doesn’t know what use such
glass might have today or in the future,
though, the recipe will go onto the shelf
for a future employee to find.
107
40 Years Ago
“The era of Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) is undoubtedly on its way. Auto-
mated clearing houses have been set up to transfer payments from bank to
bank via computer; pay-by-phone services are springing up; and electronic
terminals are appearing in banks and stores to check credit and dispense cash.
The possibility that electronic cash might zip through the consumer’s fin-
gers faster than hard money worries Gordon B. Thompson of Bell Northern
Research. Mr. Thompson wondered whether the combined impact of respon-
sive cable TV and electronic money might tempt the shopper into impulsive
video-shopping. ‘The hard sell one sees on television could be directly coupled
to a purchasing act,’ said Mr. Thompson. ‘By just inserting a credit card in the
appropriate slot and pressing a button, the latest kitchen gizmo is on its way to
the viewer’s home, and his bank account will have been automatically adjusted.’
Electronic gambling could also be possible with the combined responsive
cable TV/EFT systems, said Mr. Thompson. There could be ten-second lotter-
ies, with painless payments made by simply slipping a credit card into the slot.
[These systems could] bilk every compulsive gambler in the entire country.
EFT could make it possible to issue paychecks on a daily basis, and to pay
bills on a daily basis ... It could be possible to control payments precisely for
maximum benefits, for example, paying one’s taxes precisely at 11:59 on April
15 of each year. Unfortunately, according to Robert H. Long and Wayne B.
Lewin of the Bank Administration Institute, the government would prob-
ably already have gone to daily payment of taxes by then.
Other effects are not so obvious, said the two researchers. Because com-
puters are more impersonal than human-centered systems, there might be
an increase in ‘beat the system’ types of crimes. The challenge of the game of
ripping off the computer may be just too much. ‘The person who today tries to
beat the house in Las Vegas ... might find the challenge of beating the electronic
value transfer system too good to pass up. After all, who is hurt?’ they asked.
Finally, and perhaps most ominously, the concentration of data in EFT sys-
tems will tempt greater government control of the economy, for huge amounts
of economic data will be readily available, tempting policymakers to act upon
it. And the power of EFT records may also tempt government to gather infor-
mation on the habits and finances of the public, perhaps endangering privacy.”
Excerpted from “Doubts About Electronic Money,” from the February 1977 issue of
Technology Review.
MIT Technology Review (ISSN 1099-274X), March/April 2017 Issue, Reg. U.S. Patent Office, is published bimonthly by MIT Technology Review, 1 Main St. Suite 13, Cambridge, MA 02142-1517. Entire contents ©2017. The editors seek
diverse views, and authors’ opinions do not represent the official policies of their institutions or those of MIT. Periodicals postage paid at Boston, MA, and additional mailing offices. Postmaster: send address changes to MIT Technol-
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108
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