Tahun Permintaan Penawaran

2010 14350 15150 Tahun Penawaran

2011 14530 15500 2010 15150
2012 14750 17500 2011 15500
2013 14900 18000 2012 17500
2014 13430 16800 2013 18000
2015 13200 17500 2014 16800
2016 13010 18500 2015 17500
2017 12620 19500 2016 18500
2018 12540 18900 2017 19500
2019 12520 20500 2018 18900
2019 20500
 Forecast Permintaan

Tahun Permintaan SA 3-MA 3-WMA SES

2010 14350 14350.00
2011 14530 14350.00 14350.00
2012 14750 14440.00 14476.00
2013 14900 14543.33 14543.33 14604.00 14667.80
2014 13430 14632.50 14726.67 14781.00 14830.34
2015 13200 14392.00 14360.00 14135.00 13850.10
2016 13010 14193.33 13843.33 13609.00 13395.03
2017 12620 14024.29 13213.33 13151.00 13125.51
2018 12540 13848.75 12943.33 12853.00 12771.65
2019 12520 13703.33 12723.33 12658.00 12609.50
2020 13585.00 12560.00 12546.00 12546.85
MAD 3295.99 2175.83 2088.63 1499.56

Page 2
 Forecast Permintaan

16000
Linear Regresion
14865.45
15000
14580.90
14296.35
14011.80 14000
13727.25
13442.70 13000
13158.15
12873.60 12000
12589.05
12304.50
11000
12019.95
1375.85
10000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Permintaan SA 3-MA
3-WMA SES Linear Regresion

Page 3
 Forecast Permintaan

2017 2018 2019 2020

Regresion

Page 4
 Forecast Penawaran

Tahun Permintaan SA 3-MA 3-WMA SES

2010 15150 15150.00
2011 15500 15150.00 15150.00
2012 17500 15325.00 15395.00
2013 18000 16050.00 16050.00 16430.00 16868.50
2014 16800 16537.50 17000.00 17350.00 17660.55
2015 17500 16590.00 17433.33 17300.00 17058.17
2016 18500 16741.67 17433.33 17390.00 17367.45
2017 19500 16992.86 17600.00 17860.00 18160.23
2018 18900 17306.25 18500.00 18800.00 19098.07
2019 20500 17483.33 18966.67 19000.00 18959.42
2020 17785.00 19633.33 19633.33 20037.83
MAD 4314.40 3343.75 3287.92 2648.88

Page 5
 Forecast Penawaran

Linear Regresion
21000
15490.00
16000.00 20000
16510.00
17020.00 19000
17530.00
18040.00 18000
18550.00
19060.00 17000
19570.00
20080.00 16000
20590.00
2386.36 15000

14000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201

Permintaan SA 3-MA
3-WMA SES Linear Regresion

Page 6
 Forecast Penawaran

016 2017 2018 2019 2020

3-MA
Linear Regresion

Page 7
Permintaan SA E SA (E SA) Penawaran
14350 14350 14350 15150
14530 14350 180 180 15500
14750 14440 310 310 17500
14900 14543.333333 356.66666667 356.66666667 18000
13430 14632.5 -1202.5 1202.5 16800
13200 14392 -1192 1192 17500
13010 14193.333333 -1183.3333333 1183.3333333 18500
12620 14024.285714 -1404.2857143 1404.2857143 19500
12540 13848.75 -1308.75 1308.75 18900
12520 13703.333333 -1183.3333333 1183.3333333 20500
13585 -13585 13585
MAD 3295.9880952 MAD
 SA E SA (E SA)
15150 15150
15150 350 350
15325 2175 2175
16050 1950 1950
16537.5 262.5 262.5
16590 910 910
16741.666667 1758.3333333 1758.3333333
16992.857143 2507.1428571 2507.1428571
17306.25 1593.75 1593.75
17483.333333 3016.6666667 3016.6666667
17785 -17785 17785
MAD 4314.3993506
Permintaan MA E MA (E MA) Penawaran MA
14350 15150
14530 15500
14750 17500
14900 14543.333333 356.66666667 356.66666667 18000 16050
13430 14726.666667 -1296.666667 1296.6666667 16800 17000
13200 14360 -1160 1160 17500 17433.333333
13010 13843.333333 -833.3333333 833.33333333 18500 17433.333333
12620 13213.333333 -593.3333333 593.33333333 19500 17600
12540 12943.333333 -403.3333333 403.33333333 18900 18500
12520 12723.333333 -203.3333333 203.33333333 20500 18966.666667
12560 -12560 12560 19633.333333
MAD 2175.8333333 MAD
 E MA (E MA)

1950 1950
-200 200
66.666666667 66.666666667
1066.6666667 1066.6666667
1900 1900
400 400
1533.3333333 1533.3333333
-19633.333333 19633.333333
3343.75
 Weight Moving Avarage

Permintaan MA E MA (E MA)
14350
14530
14750
14900 14604 296 296
13430 14781 -1351 1351
13200 14135 -935 935
13010 13609 -599 599
12620 13151 -531 531
12540 12853 -313 313
12520 12658 -138 138
12546 -12546 12546
MAD 2088.625

Page 12
 Weight Moving Avarage

Penawaran MA E MA (E MA)
15150
15500
17500
18000 16430 1570 1570
16800 17350 -550 550
17500 17300 200 200
18500 17390 1110 1110
19500 17860 1640 1640
18900 18800 100 100
20500 19000 1500 1500
19633.33333 -19633.3333 19633.33333
MAD 3287.916667

Page 13
 Singgle Exponential Smothing

Permintaan SES E-SES |E-SES| Penawaran

14350 14350 0 0 15150
14530 14350 180 180 15500
14750 14476 274 274 17500
14900 14667.8 232.2 232.2 18000
13430 14830.34 -1400.34 1400.34 16800
13200 13850.102 -650.102 650.102 17500
13010 13395.0306 -385.0306 385.0306 18500
12620 13125.50918 -505.50918 505.50918 19500
12540 12771.65275 -231.652754 231.652754 18900
12520 12609.49583 -89.4958262 89.4958262 20500
12546.84875 -12546.8487 12546.84875
MAD 1499.561737 MAD

Page 14
 Singgle Exponential Smothing

SES E-SES |E-SES|

15150 0 0
15150 350 350
15395 2105 2105
16868.5 1131.5 1131.5
17660.55 -860.55 860.55
17058.165 441.835 441.835
17367.4495 1132.5505 1132.5505
18160.23485 1339.76515 1339.76515
19098.07046 -198.070455 198.070455
18959.42114 1540.578864 1540.578864
20037.82634 -20037.8263 20037.82634
MAD 2648.879664

Page 15
Periode Permintaan Linear Reg E-Linear R (E-LR)
1 14350 14865.45 -515.45 515.45
2 14530 14580.9 -50.9 50.9
3 14750 14296.35 453.65 453.65
4 14900 14011.8 888.2 888.2
5 13430 13727.25 -297.25 297.25
6 13200 13442.7 -242.7 242.7
7 13010 13158.15 -148.15 148.15
8 12620 12873.6 -253.6 253.6
9 12540 12589.05 -49.05 49.05
10 12520 12304.5 215.5 215.5
11 12019.95 -12019.95 12019.95
MAD 1375.8545455

Periode Penawaran Linear Reg E-Linear R (E-LR)

1 15150 15490 -340 340
2 15500 16000 -500 500
3 17500 16510 990 990
4 18000 17020 980 980
5 16800 17530 -730 730
6 17500 18040 -540 540
7 18500 18550 -50 50
8 19500 19060 440 440
9 18900 19570 -670 670
10 20500 20080 420 420
11 20590 -20590 20590
MAD 2386.3636364
 Periode
Permintaan 1
2
15500
3
15000
4
f(x) = − 284.545454545455 x + 15150
14500 5
14000 6
13500 7
8
13000
9
12500
10
12000 11
11500 12
11000 MAD
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Periode
Penawaran 1
25000 2
3
20000 4
f(x) = 510 x + 14980
5
15000 6
7
10000
8
9
5000
10
11
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12
Column C Linear (Column C) MAD
 Permintaan Linear Reg E-Linear R (E-LR) Periode Permintaan
14350 14865.45 -515.45 515.45 1 14350
14530 14580.9 -50.9 50.9 2 14530
14750 14296.35 453.65 453.65 3 14750
14900 14011.8 888.2 888.2 4 14900
13430 13727.25 -297.25 297.25 5 13430
13200 13442.7 -242.7 242.7 6 13200
13010 13158.15 -148.15 148.15 7 13010
12620 12873.6 -253.6 253.6 8 12620
12540 12589.05 -49.05 49.05 9 12540
12520 12304.5 215.5 215.5 10 12520
12019.95 12019.95 0 0 11 12019.95
11735.4 -11735.4 11735.4 12 11735.4
MAD 283.1318181818 13
MAD

Penawaran Linear Reg E-Linear R (E-LR) Periode Penawaran

15150 15490 -340 340 1 15150
15500 16000 -500 500 2 15500
17500 16510 990 990 3 17500
18000 17020 980 980 4 18000
16800 17530 -730 730 5 16800
17500 18040 -540 540 6 17500
18500 18550 -50 50 7 18500
19500 19060 440 440 8 19500
18900 19570 -670 670 9 18900
20500 20080 420 420 10 20500
20590 20590 0 0 11 20590
21100 -21100 21100 12 21100
MAD 514.5454545455 13
MAD
Linear Reg E-Linear R (E-LR) Periode Permintaan Linear Reg E-Linear R
14865.45 -515.45 515.45 1 14350 14865.45 -515.45
14580.9 -50.9 50.9 2 14530 14580.9 -50.9
14296.35 453.65 453.65 3 14750 14296.35 453.65
14011.8 888.2 888.2 4 14900 14011.8 888.2
13727.25 -297.25 297.25 5 13430 13727.25 -297.25
13442.7 -242.7 242.7 6 13200 13442.7 -242.7
13158.15 -148.15 148.15 7 13010 13158.15 -148.15
12873.6 -253.6 253.6 8 12620 12873.6 -253.6
12589.05 -49.05 49.05 9 12540 12589.05 -49.05
12304.5 215.5 215.5 10 12520 12304.5 215.5
12019.95 0 0 11 12019.95 12019.95 0
11735.4 0 0 12 11735.4 11735.4 0
11450.85 -11450.85 11450.85 13 11450.85 11450.85 0
283.1318181818 14 11166.3 -11166.3
MAD

Linear Reg E-Linear R (E-LR) Periode Penawaran Linear Reg E-Linear R

15490 -340 340 1 15150 15490 -340
16000 -500 500 2 15500 16000 -500
16510 990 990 3 17500 16510 990
17020 980 980 4 18000 17020 980
17530 -730 730 5 16800 17530 -730
18040 -540 540 6 17500 18040 -540
18550 -50 50 7 18500 18550 -50
19060 440 440 8 19500 19060 440
19570 -670 670 9 18900 19570 -670
20080 420 420 10 20500 20080 420
20590 0 0 11 20590 20590 0
21100 0 0 12 21100 21100 0
21610 -21610 21610 13 21610 21610 0
514.5454545455 14 22120 -22120
MAD
 (E-LR) Periode Permintaan Linear Reg E-Linear R (E-LR)
515.45 1 14350 14865.45 -515.45 515.45
50.9 2 14530 14580.9 -50.9 50.9
453.65 3 14750 14296.35 453.65 453.65
888.2 4 14900 14011.8 888.2 888.2
297.25 5 13430 13727.25 -297.25 297.25
242.7 6 13200 13442.7 -242.7 242.7
148.15 7 13010 13158.15 -148.15 148.15
253.6 8 12620 12873.6 -253.6 253.6
49.05 9 12540 12589.05 -49.05 49.05
215.5 10 12520 12304.5 215.5 215.5
0 11 12019.95 12019.95 0 0
0 12 11735.4 11735.4 0 0
0 13 11450.85 11450.85 0 0
11166.3 14 11166.3 11166.3 0 0
283.1318181818 15 10881.75 10881.75 0 0
MAD 283.1318181818

(E-LR) Periode Penawaran Linear Reg E-Linear R (E-LR)

340 1 15150 15490 -340 340
500 2 15500 16000 -500 500
990 3 17500 16510 990 990
980 4 18000 17020 980 980
730 5 16800 17530 -730 730
540 6 17500 18040 -540 540
50 7 18500 18550 -50 50
440 8 19500 19060 440 440
670 9 18900 19570 -670 670
420 10 20500 20080 420 420
0 11 20590 20590 0 0
0 12 21100 21100 0 0
0 13 21610 21610 0 0
22120 14 22120 22120 0 0
514.5454545455 15 22630 22630 0 0
MAD 514.5454545455
Permintaan Penawaran
12019.95 20590
11735.4 21100
11450.85 21610
11166.3 22120
10881.75 22630