Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Taller 6 Parte 2
Taller 6 Parte 2
1 524.61 23312.57 1
2 529.55 23315.57 2
3 528.8 23318.57 3
4 531.14 23321.57 4
5 531.65 23324.58 5
6 532.14 23327.58 6
7 533.97 23330.58 7
8 531.17 23333.59 8
9 527.53 23336.59 9
10 527.76 23341.09 10
11 529.51 23345.6 11
12 531.68 23350.1 12
13 537 23354.61 1
14 541.59 23359.12 2
15 543.93 23363.63 3
16 544.24 23368.13 4
17 546.42 23372.64 5
18 550.53 23377.15 6
19 548.34 23381.67 7
20 547.07 23386.18 8
21 548.8 23390.69 9
22 547.22 23395.21 10
23 553.84 23399.72 11
24 556.52 23404.24 12
25 557.55 23408.75 1
26 559.24 23413.27 2
27 556.14 23417.79 3
28 553.16 23422.31 4
29 555.35 23426.83 5
30 554.56 23431.35 6
31 552.91 23435.87 7
32 549.44 23440.4 8
33 546.94 23444.92 9
34 546.99 23449.44 10
35 548.11 23453.97 11
36 552.43 23458.5 12
37 555.37 23463.02 1
38 555.51 23467.55 2
39 555.1 23472.08 3
40 556.67 23476.61 4
41 559.02 23478.29 5
42 563.32 23479.96 6
43 559.38 23481.64 7
44 561.52 23483.31 8
45 558.28 23484.99 9
46 562.7 23486.66 10
47 559.54 23488.34 11
48 561.55 23490.02 12
49 569.64 23491.69 1
50 570.69 23493.37 2
51 573.24 23495.04 3
52 570.84 23496.72 4
53 572.03 23498.4 5
54 570.35 23500.07 6
55 570.91 23501.75 7
56 569.66 23503.43 8
57 568.49 23505.11 9
58 561.91 23506.78 10
59 562.7 23508.46 11
60 559.57 23510.14 12
61 555.75 23511.82 1
62 551.43 23513.49 2
63 550.53 23515.17 3
64 551.18 23516.85 4
65 550.62 23518.53 5
66 553.6 23520.21 6
67 555.97 23521.88 7
68 555.08 23523.56 8
69 553.59 23527.34 9
70 546.72 23531.13 10
71 548.13 23534.92 11
72 544.96 23538.7 12
73 548.31 23542.49 1
74 549.04 23546.28 2
75 554.22 23550.07 3
76 555.84 23553.86 4
77 557.63 23557.65 5
78 557.02 23561.44 6
79 561.7 23565.23 7
80 563.76 23569.02 8
81 559.67 23572.81 9
82 560.36 23576.61 10
83 559.5 23580.4 11
84 560.56 23584.19 12
85 564.59 23587.99 1
86 563.39 23591.78 2
87 565.09 23595.58 3
88 566.88 23599.38 4
89 566.11 23603.17 5
90 555.74 23606.97 6
91 555.77 23610.77 7
92 551.36 23614.57 8
93 549.05 23618.37 9
94 550.22 23622.17 10
95 553.62 23625.97 11
96 550.46 23629.77 12
97 548.61 23633.57 1
98 551.45 23637.37 2
99 550.7 23641.18 3
100 553.95 23647.46 4
101 554.04 23653.74 5
102 555.99 23660.03 6
103 552.98 23666.31 7
104 548.04 23672.6 8
105 550.72 23678.89 9
106 550.23 23685.18 10
107 550.68 23691.47 11
108 552.62 23697.76 12
109 551.63 23704.06 1
110 549.59 23710.35 2
111 549.89 23716.65 3
112 553.12 23722.95 4
113 554.41 23729.25 5
114 553.43 23735.56 6
115 554.8 23741.86 7
116 556.76 23748.17 8
117 559.03 23754.48 9
118 559.12 23760.79 10
119 556.69 23767.1 11
120 557.14 23773.41 12
121 553.12 23779.73 1
122 550.64 23786.04 2
123 550.09 23792.36 3
124 550.02 23798.68 4
125 550.6 23805.01 5
126 552.72 23811.33 6
127 552.09 23817.65 7
128 552.18 23823.98 8
129 550.84 23830.31 9
130 548.72 23834.91 10
131 550.49 23839.51 11
132 552.37 23844.11 12
133 553.54 23848.71 1
134 553.29 23853.31 2
135 554.05 23857.92 3
136 553.93 23862.52 4
137 556.39 23867.13 5
138 562.92 23871.73 6
139 566.86 23876.34 7
140 565.86 23880.95 8
141 563.71 23885.56 9
142 563.88 23890.17 10
143 563.3 23894.78 11
144 563.48 23899.39 12
145 563.57 23904 1
146 565.88 23908.61 2
147 570.51 23913.23 3
148 573.14 23917.84 4
149 572.61 23922.46 5
150 571.75 23927.08 6
151 576.66 23931.69 7
152 577.36 23936.31 8
153 576.19 23940.93 9
154 576.14 23945.55 10
155 574.3 23950.17 11
156 576.23 23954.79 12
157 576.49 23959.42 1
158 576.49 23964.04 2
159 576.15 23968.67 3
160 578.54 23973.29 4
161 583.09 23975.68 5
162 582.76 23978.08 6
163 583.19 23980.47 7
164 583.13 23982.87 8
165 584.87 23985.26 9
166 588.67 23987.66 10
167 593.28 23990.05 11
168 590.91 23992.45 12
169 589.03 23994.84 1
170 591.55 23997.24 2
171 588.52 23999.64 3
172 591.43 24002.03 4
173 586.41 24004.43 5
174 585.29 24006.83 6
175 592.34 24009.22 7
176 590.82 24011.62 8
177 590.14 24014.02 9
178 590.6 24016.42 10
179 594.71 24018.81 11
180 593.76 24021.21 12
181 594.09 24023.61 1
182 600.36 24026.01 2
183 600.3 24028.41 3
184 598.87 24030.81 4
185 598.91 24033.21 5
186 599.66 24035.61 6
187 601.66 24038.01 7
188 599.22 24040.41 8
189 597.26 24042.81 9
190 596.08 24045.21 10
191 598.64 24045.99 11
192 597.72 24046.76 12
193 596.95 24047.54 1
194 594.71 24048.31 2
195 592.13 24049.09 3
196 594.3 24049.86 4
197 590.01 24050.64 5
198 588.4 24051.41 6
199 588.22 24052.19 7
200 591.16 24052.96 8
201 587.61 24053.74 9
202 587.12 24054.51 10
203 583.92 24055.29 11
204 584.14 24056.07 12
205 584.4 24056.84 1
206 584.2 24057.62 2
207 585.1 24058.39 3
208 581.62 24059.17 4
209 576.65 24059.94 5
210 576.5 24060.72 6
211 580.62 24061.5 7
212 585.97 24062.27 8
213 588.48 24063.05 9
214 590.44 24063.82 10
215 589.72 24064.6 11
216 588.33 24065.38 12
217 590.58 24066.15 1
218 592.48 24066.93 2
219 594.14 24067.7 3
Utilice el set de datos UF-Dólar
1. Desarrolle los siguientes modelos para explicar la UF en función delEl modelo UF , USD , T tiene una bondad de ajuste
dólar: del 98,28%
a. Modelo considerando solo las series de tiempo UF y dólar
b. Modelo con las series sin tendencia Los Beta para Dolar son de .4183571 lo que explica
c. Modelo incluyendo explícitamente el tiempo que por cada unidad que sube el usd , sube .4183571
Interprete y compare el estimador del β1 obtenido en cada modelo. unidades la UF
2. Evalúe la autocorrelación de los residuales de cada uno de los
modelos. Utilice el tiene un significancia baja es justo 0.05
estadístico Durbin-Watson.
3. Sugiera métodos para lidiar con la autocorrelación
month
2 -.7288762 10.84621 -0.07 0.946 -22.11331 20.65555
3 -1.26363 10.84687 -0.12 0.907 -22.64935 20.12209
estacional o temporal 4 2.79829 10.99838 0.25 0.799 -18.88616 24.48274
5 2.360002 10.99775 0.21 0.830 -19.32321 24.04321
6 1.882963 10.99769 0.17 0.864 -19.80011 23.56604
7 1.013534 11.00432 0.09 0.927 -20.68261 22.70968
8 .8512126 10.99894 0.08 0.938 -20.83434 22.53677
9 1.026271 10.99517 0.09 0.926 -20.65185 22.70439
10 .9104072 10.99598 0.08 0.934 -20.76931 22.59013
11 .1949941 10.99589 0.02 0.986 -21.48454 21.87453
rbin's 12 -.2424897 10.9964 -0.02 0.982 -21.92303 21.43805
. tsset t
time variable: t, 1 to 219
modelos existe un delta: 1 unit
si que rechazamos la
1 82034.880 1 0.0000
. tsset t
time variable: t, 1 to 219
delta: 1 unit
1 90666.955 1 0.0000
snten podemos
H0: no serial correlation
un Correlación
e quito correlación pero
En ambos caso existe un prob de Chi2 muy pequeño asi que rechazamos la hipotesis
modelo con "ajuste de nula y tenemos autocorrelación
rho .9676253
Total 14487.7014 218 66.4573458 Root MSE = 2.6957
rho .9676253
month
2 -.0521159 .3575965 -0.15 0.884 -.7571749 .6529431
3 -.0726644 .4831168 -0.15 0.881 -1.025207 .8798781
4 .0789008 .5674283 0.14 0.890 -1.039875 1.197677
5 -.0173034 .6197862 -0.03 0.978 -1.239312 1.204705
6 -.1027421 .6497323 -0.16 0.875 -1.383794 1.17831
7 -.201202 .6633064 -0.30 0.762 -1.509017 1.106613
8 -.234933 .6520405 -0.36 0.719 -1.520536 1.05067
9 -.1223594 .623025 -0.20 0.844 -1.350753 1.106035
10 -.0267149 .5741325 -0.05 0.963 -1.15871 1.10528
11 -.039363 .4934321 -0.08 0.936 -1.012244 .9335178
12 -.018406 .3665726 -0.05 0.960 -.7411628 .7043508
rho 1.013345
9
1
219
910.02
0.0000
0.9830
0.9819
33.428
erval]
461525
911451
.65555
.12209
.48274
.04321
.56604
.70968
.53677
.70439
.59013
.87453
.43805
305.62
.48274
.04321
.56604
.70968
.53677
.70439
.59013
.87453
.43805
305.62
8
8
0
2
0
3
7
4
1
1
7
5
1
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