PRIMARY VOTERS

SOUTH CAROLINA
Online & Social Media Analysis
August 30 – September 19, 2023
 ABOUT THE PRIMARY VOTER DATASET

Methodology:
Impact Social analyzed the online and social media discussion in relation to DeSantis, Trump, Scott and Haley amongst primary voters in South Carolina
between August 23 – September 19, 2023. We used algorithms to pull in data. Our expert team then read statistically representative samples of posts to
produce the analysis. Each post was read from the perspective of the individual and scored ‘positive’ or ‘negative’ depending on whether the sentiment of
the post is in their favor or not. In addition specific topics of discussion, language and tone used have been documented.
For the primary voter group, Impact Social carried out detailed language and profile analysis of US social media surrounding in-state primary elections
(presidential, gubernatorial, senate & house) back to December 2015 to recruit users into a database of primary voters geo located to SC.

Key take-outs:

Ron DeSantis is a genuine threat to Trump in South Carolina. Primary voters are interested in his candidacy, generally approve of his record as FL
governor and are open to what he has to say. However a defeatist attitude exists among voters which suggests DeSantis ‘can’t win’ which creates sense of
momentum towards Trump. Yet this analysis shows that some voters are open to persuasion. A simple change in sentiment from ‘can’t’ to ‘could’ win has
the potential to force a significant shift in the tide.

The majority of conversations involving Donald Trump are led by is brand where voters simply express whether they like or dislike him. Policies or
performance rarely come into it. These primary voters have little interest in what he has to say and issues of substance are barely discussed. Brand, it
seems, is the thing that matters most. Yet for all the brand strength might this also be his weakness should a serious challenger emerge?

One word best sums up SC primary voter attitude to Tim Scott, ‘lightweight. He is likeable enough but lacks the legislative history to pack a punch.
Consequently few see him as a serious candidate in this race at present and will need to do something quite spectacular to have any hope of winning
them round.

Nikki Haley’s familiarity in South Carolina is also her undoing among primary voters as people think they have heard it all before. Consequently
relatively few people are even talking about her candidacy in state. Where she is being spoken of nearly 80% of the conversation is negative as voters
(mainly MAGA base), accuse her of being a RINO and or a war monger. While there is certainly warmth being expressed following her time
as governor it is too inconsequential at present to suggest she will be a major player in this race.
CANDIDATE SENTIMENT TRACKING 30K original posts

PRIMARY VOTER SENTIMENT

DeSantis Trump Scott Haley

80

60

40

56
20 46
21
30K 178K original posts
11 original posts
0

-20 -44
-54
-40 -79
-89

-60

-80

-100

Positive Negative
RON DeSANTIS ANALYSIS 30K original posts 4.8k original posts

The online discussion of Ron DeSantis is different from the other three and
suggests that the Governor generates more interest in South Carolina than
anyone except Trump. Nikki Haley and Tim Scott are mostly scored on their
merits or otherwise but DeSantis is talked about online almost two-and-a-half
times more often than those two combined. Donald Trump discussions are
largely knee-jerk for-or-against-comments. This easy yes/no style helps him
achieve five times the mentions of DeSantis.

However DeSantis conversations are not simple merit/demerit or pro/anti.

Instead, He is consistently measured up against Trump by primary voters, his
record as Governor often appears far more interesting to South Carolinians
than that of their own former Governor or, indeed, of the former President
himself. Consequently, the online conversation is more complex, with people
interested in who DeSantis is and what he’s done, rather than simply where he 178K original posts
30K original posts
stands on the GOP spectrum.

One-in-eight believed DeSantis to be the most pro-life candidate, comparing

his attitudes favorably against Trump’s pledge to do a “deal” with Democrats
on federal abortion time limits. One fourth of positive sentiment was on his
record as Governor, including his response to COVID. Yet one-in ten disliked
his Florida record and another 11% rejected other policy positions as a
candidate, especially on LGBT issues and race. One-in-five thought he couldn’t
currently beat Trump.

However, the head-to-head comparisons confirm to Trump supporters that

DeSantis could be a genuine threat. He has the attention of South Carolinians.
His challenge is to withstand the volume of noise from opponents and find
more ways to showcase his policies and himself to an already-engaged
audience.
DONALD TRUMP ANALYSIS 30K original posts 25k original posts

Donald Trump is – as he would doubtless say himself – a very strong brand.

That is clearly reflected in social media discussions. More than any other
candidate, it’s not what his policy is, what he thinks, or what he does, it is
simply TRUMP, pro- or anti-.

In South Carolina, he scores a remarkable 71% of positive sentiment because

of who he is. However, brand is a double-edged sword – 61% of negative
comments are purely “anti-Trump” with no real attempt at explaining why.

Below the headlines, though, are glimpses of why primary voters in South
Carolina think as they do. For an opposition candidate, perhaps, they offer a
path to addressing Trump’s underlying strengths and weaknesses.

Primary voters think Trump ran a better economy than President Biden (but 178K original posts
30K original posts
they’re less impressed with his overall record in office). One in ten social
media comments side with him over his views that the 2020 election was
“stolen” or that the indictments against him are political.

On the other side, the largest non-brand negative is the way Trump handled
COVID. Primary voters fault him for lockdowns, vaccine rollouts and a careless
attitude. By roughly two-to-one, social media comments reject his recent
assertion that he would “do a deal” with the Democrats on a federal abortion
ban. One in eight think the indictments and his record should mark the end of
Trump and the MAGA movement.

Yet, perhaps inevitably, Trump is still the biggest talking point of anyone in
the GOP race. Can any other candidate dig into the detail to find a way to
tarnish that brand?
TIM SCOTT ANALYSIS 30K original posts 1.3k original posts

Everyone in the Palmetto State knows Tim Scott – and that’s his biggest
problem. 14 years on a County Council, two years at the State House, two
more at the US House of Representatives and, since 2013, a US Senator, he
should carry a lot of legislative baggage. However many South Carolina
primary voters see him as traveling very light. They don’t see a history of
achievements over his long period in office. They don’t see him making a
mark. He has risen without trace.

When they do see Scott trying to break through with a new policy or plan,
they are often dismissive. His recent education policy announcement, for
example, promising to “break the backs” of teachers’ unions, drew widespread
derision in South Carolina – a state which ranks near the bottom in union
power. 178K original posts
30K original posts

Scott’s missteps – including on religion and his personal life – leave many
primary voters unimpressed. They pepper his social media feeds with
sarcastic “hard” questions and challenge his statements as untruthful. Many
think him weak – particularly those opposed to another Trump candidacy.

Overall, Scott is in a very difficult place. Few people think he can win; many
question why he’s running at all. A lot think he’s simply out of his depth.

But he’s through-and-through South Carolina and, many say, extremely

likeable. Though many don’t think he’ll reach the start line for the state
primary, there’s still a contingent that may consider him if he did.
NIKKI HALEY ANALYSIS 30K original posts 896 original posts

Nikki Haley’s challenges in her home state are easy to identify but difficult to
address. She is both too close to South Carolinians and too distant from them.

The closeness comes, obviously, from her time as Governor. Her significant
record means many primary voters think they already know everything
about her. She lacks the element of surprise which can traditionally delight
voters and turbocharge a campaign.

Her record as Governor includes signing a 20-week abortion ban with almost
no exceptions and the removal of the Confederate flag from the state Capitol.
Both remain frequent discussion topics among social media users with
opinion as divided now as when those decisions were made.
178K original posts
30K original posts
Haley’s ‘distance’ problem stems from her decision to quit as Governor to
become Trump’s UN Ambassador. For many local GOP voters, leaving her post
mid-term began a major split from them. Her UN record means she faces
severe criticism as a “neocon”, “warmonger” and “RINO” amongst grassroots
primary voters who lean towards the international isolationist stance of the
MAGA movement.

The more she tries to square the circle of local closeness and national
distance, the more she appears to many voters as having no principles and
being unlikeable. Perhaps the narrow path she seeks between MAGA
populism and the “establishment” GOP just doesn’t exist?
CANDIDATE VOLUME TRACKING 30K original posts

178K original posts

30K original posts
ABOUT IMPACT SOCIAL

Impact Social is a specialist social media, online monitoring and analysis company. Using big data software Impact Social tracks over 60 million online sites including Twitter,
Facebook, all blogs, forums and news websites. Whatever is said publicly, in the media or online we can follow live, 24/7 in 44 different languages.

This is where our reliance on algorithms ends. Once the data has been received our in-house experts read and analyze the content - often amounting to 1,000’s of individual
posts. Our unique methodology ensures unrivalled accuracy to show what has been said, by whom and its impact. We are the only company in the world providing this
level of analysis.

What does the analysis show?

Our expertise is in accurately assessing all media, stakeholder and public conversations which have an impact - positively or negatively - on any given subject, organisation or
individual. This can be provided as a general overview or in greater detail reflecting:

• The overall conversation

• The level of influence
• The topics under discussion and the share of voice
• The share of the discussion positive to negative and what is driving it
• Which stakeholder group is having the most impact

These questions and many more are what Impact Social was established to answer. In essence we create live rolling focus groups of thousands, hundreds of thousands,
sometimes millions of people.

We work with international organizations, government departments, global brands, the world’s largest trade associations, national governments and on Presidential, Prime
Ministerial and local elections.

Areas of expertise: geo-politics, political campaigns, issues management, brand reputation, crisis communications, financial services and litigation. Impact Social is based in
London and Washington D.C. www.impactsocial.com