Grundlagen der Internationalen Beziehungen

Introduction
Foreign policy (Außenpolitik) and international politics (Internationale Politik) are different. Foreign policy
relates to actions and resulting objectives from a nation inside the environment of other states, every nation
has capabilities, policy making, needs and aspirations. International politics refer to the relations between
two nations a Nation A and a Nation B, which both have objectives for which they take an action and expect
a response from the other nation.

There is a pluralism of theories (Theorienpluralismus), it’s a complex discipline, influenced by other social
sciences, in fact there is an interrelationship of the discipline with the historical and socio-political
(historischen und gesellschaftspolitischen Kontext) context.

Gesellschaft = society

Grundbegriffe (Basic terms)

Internationale Beziehungen (IB): International relationships, product of actions and reactions of foreign
politics (Produkt außenpolitischer Aktionen und Reaktionen, die über Zeit aufrecht), mantained over
time so they create patterns and relationships. Internationale Beziehungen has long lasting results.
Internationale Beziehungen as a discipline deals with international politics and foreign policy.

Internationale Politik is the interaction of states, the outcome of their actions, Außenpolitik is the output of
the action of states actors (staatlicher Akteure) but it’s an isolated view of the state inside the greater
envirnonment.

Transnationale Beziehungen (TB) is the interaction of societal actors across state-territorial borders
(Interaktion gesellschaftlicher Akteure über staatlich-territoriale Grenzen hinweg).

“Politics is that authoritative distribution (and generation) of values in the subject areas of security, welfare,
government, by the political system or by societal actors within the social environmental unit or within the
international environment carried out.” „Politik ist die autoritative Verteilung (und Erzeugung) von Werten in
den Sachbereichen Sicherheit, Wohlfahrt, Herrschaft, die vom politischen System oder von
gesellschaftlichen Akteuren innerhalb des gesellschaftlichen Umfeldes einer Einheit oder innerhalb der
internationalen Umwelt vorgenommen wird.“

„Außenpolitik ist die inhaltliche Ausformung und organisatorische Steuerung der Beziehung einer staatlich
verfassten Gesellschaft zu ihrer Umwelt. Sie basiert auf denjenigen gesellschaftlichen Werten und
Interessen, die im Inneren als allgemeinverbindliche Werte und Interessen auf Zeit durchgesetzt werden,
wobei diese Prozesse auch durch Akteure und Entwicklungen in der internationalen Umwelt beeinflusst
werden können.“ “Foreign policy is the substantive shaping and organizational control of the relationship
between a state-based society and its environment. It is based on those social values and interests that are
enforced internally as generally binding values and interests for a limited time, whereby these processes can
also be influenced by actors and developments in the international environment.” In Außenpolitik:

• States must secure their own existence (self-help = Selbsthilfe)

• States must obtain and use their own resources (including military ones) to safeguard their interests
• Competition (Wettbewerb) and asymmetric power can lead to war
• Significance of mutual countervailing power formation (gegenseitigen Gegenmachtbildung)
• If there is interdependence, one has to achieve (a certain degree of) cooperation under these
anarchic conditions (Bei bestehender Interdependenz muss man unter diesen anarchischen
Bedingungen (ein gewisses Maß an) Kooperation erreichen)

Theories
Theories serve as a frame of reference for analysis (Selektion), allow a conceptual and systematic ordering
(Ordnung), allow to find systematical-causal statements (systematisch-kausale Aussagen) and to predict
based on them (Erklärung - Explanation).

Theories should be wide and deep (weit und tief), logical (logisch), verifiable (Überprüfbar), give a
systematic-causal explanation.

Theories can be Empirical-Analytical or Normative (Empirisch analytische oder normative):

• Normative theories are based on values, on recognizing what’s good and right, they are theories that
provide guidance for action (Theorie soll Anleitung für Handeln geben). Example: waging wars is
wrong/evil because these cause human suffering.
• Empirical-analytical theories are verifiable descriptions and explanation of what is observable, no
values in it, analysis and evaluation are separated (Analyse und Bewertung sind strikt zu
trennen), they can be confuted. Example: theory of democratic peace (democracies do not go to
war with each other, e.g. because they see other D. as part of group).

Überprüfbare = verifiable

Hermeneutics and Scientism (Hermeneutik un Szientismus)

Hermeneutics is the prevailing philosophy of in the area of historical sciences (In der
Geschichtswissenschaft vorherrschende Wissenschaftstheorie). At its core it’s a method of
interpretation, about understanding actors and contexts (Zusammenhagen).

Scientism is the scientific philosophy dominant in the social sciences, it’s based on the natural sciences and
it’s about the search for casual laws (Kausalgesetzen).

X sciences = X-wissenchaften
Different levels of analysis
• Theorie des internationalen Systems = structure
• Theorie der bürokratischen Politik (Akteur) = states or social actors
• Politische Psychologie (Individuum) = people or groups

Individual level

Roles of people in the IB, world views (Weltbilder), beliefs and interests of individuals or groups of people
are seen as crucial, contexts of individual decision-making (Entscheidungsfindung) and dynamic
processes in groups are highlighted. Example: Changes in US foreign policy after assuming the presidency
by Joe Biden (Joe Biden's worldview vs. Donald Trump's worldview

Actor level

The behavior of states and other actors is the focus, aggregation of Interests, the system of government
(Herrschaftssystem) internal processes can influence the output, foreign policy guidelines and the
implementation of foreign policy decisions. Example: The withdrawal of US troops from Syria (2019) in the
context of preferences the US population.

System level

The focus is on structure and outcome, Anarchy and cooperation in the international system as well as
power asymmetries (Machtasymmetrie) are analyzed, configuration (of state preferences). Example:
Proximity to Syria and Iraq makes Turkey put a big part of the budget into the military.

Bilateralismus, Multilateralismus
Bilateral relations (Bilaterale Beziehungen) denote direct relations between two states, bilateral
relationships are characterized by direct reciprocity (direkter Reziprozität), do ut des.

Multilateralism refers to the relationship between three or more states. Additive multilateralism is "the
practice of coordinating national policies in groups of three or more states." Normative multilateralism
denotes longer-term coordinated relations between three or more states on the basis of and in accordance
with common norms, principles and practices in specific areas (Multilateralismus bezeichnet
längerfristige koordinierte Beziehungen zwischen drei oder mehr Staaten auf der Basis und in
Übereinstimmung mit gemeinsamen Normen, Prinzipien und Handlungspraktiken in bestimmten
Sachbereichen). Relationships based on normative multilateralism can lead to international institutions.

The relative abilities of the two states are directly expressed in power asymmetry, which is why in a
relationship:

− strong states each have bilateral exchanges.

− the weaker states strive for multilateral exchange.

GTI-Prozesse: Globalisierung, Transnationalisierung, Internationalisierung

Globalization is developments that result from the revolutions in communication and information technology
and lead to a compression of space and time for human activities (Komprimierung der Faktoren Raum
und Zeit für menschlichen Handelns). Example: millions of people around the world have subscribed to
ex-US President Obama's Twitter account.

Transnationalization means stable and regular cross-border interaction with non-governmental actors
(Interaktion zw. Nichtregierungsakteuren). Example: The US company Apple has its products
manufactured by Chinese companies.

Internationalization is a process in which states try to reproduce their ability to act (Handlungsfähigkeit) in a
changed environment and to reduce the costs of international transactions resulting from the partial loss of
the gatekeeper position. Example: Japan concludes a free trade agreement with the EU and opens up its
market.

Handelns = activities-actions
Internationales system und innerstaatlichen system
Internationales system is the combination of Struktur and interagierende Einheiten (interacting units). The
ordering principle of this international system is anarchy, states are units with relative skills, A state's
positions of power depend on its capabilities compared to others states (GDP, defense budget
Rüstungsausgaben…) and function with the same principles, each state takes care of its own security, its
own health care, welfare, etc…

On the other hand, the domestic system, innerstaatlichen system, is based on Hierarchie, constitutional
order there are laws that all citizens obey, the units in it are functionally different, and each has relative skills
measured by the position of power of the government.

Neorealismus un Realismsus
Neorealismus sees states are the central actors in international relations, they pursue their own interests,
and they are rational actors. International relations are based on anarchy and on state preferences
(Anarchie als Tiefenstruktur der internationalen Beziehungen ist die Bedingung für die
Ausgestaltung der staatlichen Präferenzen), this anarchy shapes the conditions for state preferences. In
neorealism cooperation.between states is limited (Kooperationsfähigkeit von Staaten ist begrenzt) and
conflict is more present, international institutions don’t improve cooperation but only have marginal effects on
it. States are interested in ensuring their security.

Neorealismus is also called Struktureller Realismus, it explains internationale Politik on the system level,
Systemebene. It deals with the distribution of power in the international system (Machtverteilung im
Internationalen System).

There are differences between realismus and neorealismus. Realismus is based on actors dominance,
Dominanz des Akteurs, they behave based on anthropocentric assumptions and strive for power. In
realismus, the strive for power is defined by national interest, characteristic properties, situation definition
and objective of the actors of a system determine its behavior and the behavioral results (bottom up view).
The purpose of foreign policy of the actor is the acquisition, propagation and demonstration of power, to
maximize power. Securing national sovereignty is a prerequisite for survival of the actor in a hostile
environment.

Neorealismus is based on the dominance of international systems, actors behave based on systemic
assumptions and there is structural anarchy. The structural anarchy of neorealismus determines the
interaction behavior of the actors (top-down view), based on the primacy of safety. In neorealismus the
actors act on self help, power in purpose of security, Selbsthilfe; (Macht zum Zweck der Sicherheit) and
they defend their position in the system, in relation to the positions of the other actors. Establishing and
securing the balance in the system (Gleichgewichts im System) is a prerequisite for the survival of the
actors under anarchy.

Realism Defensive neorealism Offensive neorealism

Because of the
Why do states strive for Because of the structure of
Because of their interests structure of the
power? the international system
international system

States try to maintain the

balance of power,
How much power are Maximum power, Maximum power,
maintaining their position
states aiming for? hegemony hegemony
of power relatively to
others

Warum – wegen = why – because

(Un)sicherheit = (un)certainty/security

Balance of power is defined as a state of international relations in which no state is in a position that allows it
to become so powerful that it can dominate the other states (kein Staat in einer Position ist, die ihn so
übermächtig werden lässt, dass er die anderen Staaten beherrschen kann). A balance of power can be
Antagonistisch (e.g. Cold War - USSR vs. USA), Kooperativ (e.g. NATO), Integrativ (e.g. EU).

Threat (Bedrohung) is defined as sum of skills (Fahigkeiten) and intentions (Intentionen) of other actors, with
difference between objective and subjective threat. Fahigkeiten result from: the aggregate power (territory,
population, economic resources), the geographical proximity, the offensive military capabilities. The
Intentionen refer to the (perceived) intention to use the skills.

Institutionalismus
Basic assumptions of the (neoliberal)institutionalism:

• Key players in international politics: states

• States are unified and rational actors, they strive after Maximizing their own interests
• Structural feature of the international system: anarchy but Institutionalismus with an important role of
international institutions.

According to Keohane, institutions are defined as the set of related formal and informal rules (Regeln) that
describe role behavior (Rollen-Verhalten), constrain actions, and shape expectations (Erwartungen).
International regimes are complexes of implicit and explicit principles, norms, rules, and decision-making
processes that guide the expectations of actors in a given area of international relations.

• Norms: value-based, intersubjectively shared expectations of behavior

• Principles: general standards of behavior
• Rules: specific, verifiable rules and prohibitions on behavior.
• Decision-making process: rules for decision-making

The establishment of international regimes (or institutions) in the international system is possible:

• because states can also agree to cooperate with one another in a non-hegemonically structured
order (nicht-hegemonial strukturierten Ordnung).
• because international institutions are not an instrument of the great powers (Großmächte), but help
states to solve problems of cooperation.
• because international regimes contain control mechanisms (Kontrollmechanismen) for cooperation.
Effects of international regimes:

• Reduce transaction costs.

• Open the possibility of expanding cooperation through deals.
• Allow control of the cooperation agreement (Ermöglichen eine Kontrolle der
Kooperationsvereinbarung).

Regime formation can be analyzed using different approaches:

• Rational actor: Concurring or complementary interests of states lead to regime formation

(Regimebildung).
• Normative approach: States are interested in the regulation of international relations because of
fundamental value decisions (grundsätzlichen Wertentscheidungen).
• 2-level approach: International regimes expand the scope of action of governments as negotiators
(Verhandlungsführer).

Neorealismus vs. Institutionalismus

Neorealists: Because of anarchy, cooperation is difficult, Wegen Anarchie ist Kooperation schwierig.

Institutionalists: Because of anarchy, cooperation is necessary, Wegen Anarchie ist Kooperation notwendig.

As a result, intergovernmental (Zwischenstaatliche) cooperation is more likely and stable (wahrscheinlicher

und stabiler) for institutionalism than for neorealism.

Neorealismus Insititutionalismus

International system as norm-free space Creation of Rules for state interaction in IS by

characterized by anarchy International Institutions

International institutions are instruments of the Institutions have an independent effect on state
great powers (means of power politics) behavior in international politics

States are striving for relative gains States are striving for absolute gains

Institutions have effects of promoting cooperation

Cooperation only on the basis of the equal
has by reducing transaction costs, creating a
distribution of relative gains
negotiation forum and control body

Durch = by

Liberalismus und Neuer Lliberalismus

Liberalisms, especially traditioneller liberalismus, is not a consistent political philosophy (Uneinheitliche
politische Philosophie). Its normative core is the freedom of the individual (Freiheit des Individuums), which is
both a negative freedom from the state and a positive freedom to participate. As a philosophy, it has a
positive image of man (positives Menschenbild) and a strong belief in progress (Fortschrittsglaube).

At the level of international relations liberalism:

• Norm of preventing war (Norm der Verhinderung von Krieg)

• Great potential for an international peace order (Friedensordnung)
• Explanatory factors:
• Cost of War
• Benefits of trade (Nutzen des Handels)
• Peacefulness of democracies (Friedlichkeit von Demokratien)
• World Public
• Legal norms
• Institutions
The liberal theory of IB is not normative but empirisch-analytisch. Central analysis questions of liberalism:

• Which social interests are articulated?

• Which social interests can be effectively influence the (foreign) political process?

The liberal analysis asks how the formation of state preferences comes about (method:process tracing) –
later, how the preferences are represented in foreign policy. According to liberalism, state foreign policy
preferences arise on the basis of the most assertive social preference (auf Grundlage der
durchsetzungsstärksten gesellschaftlichen Präferenz).

Basic assumption (GA) 1: The key players in international politics are individuals and private groups
(methodological individualism). These social actors compete to assert their own interests with regard to
foreign policy.

Basic assumption (GA) 2: The state transfers the most assertive social interests (Gesellschaftliche
Präferenzen) into foreign policy state preferences (Staatspräferenzen) and act on that basis in world politics.

Basic assumption (GA) 3: the configuration of interdependent state preferences determines state behavior
and outcomes of international politics.

Intra-societal competition for foreign

policy influence

Logic of AP (Aussenpolitik) preference formation:

Social actors base their preferences on a normative or economic maximization of utility (normative oder
ökonomische Nutzenmaximierung aus). Insofar as transnational preference formation finds its way into the
domestic bottom-up process, it is taken into account in the analysis (orange circles). The identified societal
preferences are the starting point of liberal foreign policy analysis (Ausgangspunkt der liberalen
Außenpolitikanalyse) and their competition is reflected in the formation of state preference, in that social
actors strive to have their interests represented by the state. The preference formation (Präferenzbildung) of
social actors precedes the state preference formation process. The State is modeled as an arena for
competition (Wettbewerb) among societal actors, it acts merely as an agent for the societal principles.
Depending on the different institutional configurations of the relationship between society and the political
system, the respective preferences of the social actors can have different influences on the determination of
the state preference. Die jeweiligen Präferenzen der gesellschaftlichen Akteure können je nach
unterschiedlicher institutioneller Ausgestaltung des Verhältnisses von Gesellschaft und politischem System
unterschiedlichen Einfluss auf die Feststellung der staatlichen Präferenz gewinnen

Below the differentiation of the system of domination, the liberal approach examines:
 • The decision-making process and the concrete influence exerted
• The networking of social forces with formal foreign policy decision-makers

Assumption: The foreign policy goals of a state are determined by the preferences of the most influential
(einflussreichsten) social actors - and the state acts according to these preferences. Actors to analyze are
corporations, transnational organizations, activists, public opinion… When do interest groups try to influence
AP? When an interest group's organizational purpose is affected by foreign policy action (costs/benefits),
they seek to influence the decision-making process. The effectiveness of the influence depends on:

• The situational degree of mobilization (cost-benefit expectation); Situativen Mobilisierungsgrad

• Organizational skills (group size, free riders, homogeneity); Organisationsfähigkeit
• The resources (people, finances, information, legitimacy, public support); Ressourcenausstattung,
• From access to the decision-making process (in relation to the access of competing groups)

Public opinion is an influential actor because governments pursue the goal of re-election, they must try to
realize societal interests, since voters assign the government to those who assert their interests better in a
cost-benefit analysis. Almond-Lippmann said until the 1970s that public opinion had little influence on foreign
policy, this assessment changed with the Vietnam War. Da Regierungen das Ziel der Wiederwahl verfolgen,
müssen sie versuchen, gesellschaftliche Interessen zu realisieren, da Wähler in Kosten Nutzen Abwägung
diejenigen mit der Regierung beauftragen, die ihre Interessen besser durchsetzen.

Zwei-Ebenen-Ansatz, Two-Level Approach

"Each national political leader appears on both game boards (domestic and international). Across the
international table sit his foreign counterparts, and at his elbows sit diplomats and other international
advisors. Around the domestic table behind him sit party and parliamentary figures, spokespersons for
domestic agencies, representatives of key interest groups and the leader's own political advisors. The
unusual complexity of this two-level game is that moves that are rational for a player at one board [...] may
be impolitic for that same player at the other board."

Basic assumption 1: Government as gatekeeper; Regierung als Gatekeeper

National governments act as gatekeeper between the international and the domestic level, key strategic
actors in the two-level analysis. National governments are the gatekeeper and monopolisten in foreign
policy. National governments are rational actors, whose primary, ever-constant goal (stets konstantes Ziel) is
the retention of their domestic power (innerstaatlicher Machterhalt). The function of the gatekeeper and the
monopolist results in an autonomous scope for action (autonomer Handlungsspielraum). In these two-level
constellations Government officials strive to reconcile the incentives and constraints of both levels (die
Anreize und Zwänge constraints beider Ebenen miteinander in Einklang zu bringen).

Governments win in two-level games political resources, which they can use in their own interests:

• Control of the domestic political agenda (package solutions)

• Side payments
• Information advantage

The two-level approach must be distinguished from liberal bottom-up approach, since the governmental
room for foreign policy action is only limited by the preferences of domestic actors: "Foreign policy in this
view is not constituency driven, but it is constituency constrained”

Basic assumption 2: Domestic ratification

Every international agreement (Vereinbarung), every foreign policy measure (Maßnahme) must be ratified
domestically (muss innerstaatlich ratifiziert warden). The requirement of national ratification (Erfordernis der
innerstaatlichen Ratifikation) marks the fundamental limitation (Beschränkung) of the foreign policy
autonomy of national governments. Crucial to the two-level explanation of foreign policy is the question of
how strict the ratification requirement is.

→WIN SET

The twin set of a government describes the set of foreign policy decisions that can be ratified domestically
(Menge der außenpolitischen Entscheidungen, die innerstaatlich ratifizierbar sind). The win-set is total of all
successfully ratifiable foreign policy decision options. The size of the win-sets of a government is central
explanatory factor for the foreign policy actions of a government in the two-level approach. The size of the
win-sets a government depends on:

• The institutional rules of ratification

• The preferences of the veto players (Veto-Spieler)
• The repercussions (Ruckwirkungen) of the international political level

Basic assumption 3: Interdependence of the levels

Zwischenstaatliche Kooperation und Verhandlungsmacht; Interstate cooperation and bargaining

power

The establishment of intergovernmental cooperation (Zustandekommen zwischenstaatlicher Kooperation)

depends on the overlap of the domestic win-sets of the governments involved (dass sich die innerstaatlichen
win sets der beteiligten Regierungen überschneiden). The larger this intersection, the higher the probability
of international cooperation. The two-level approach indicates the possibility of unintended violation of
cooperation agreements (involuntary defection) (nicht intendierten Verletzung von
Kooperationsvereinbarungen hin). The chances of international cooperation are determined by the national
distribution of the costs and benefits of this cooperation.

The relationship (Zusammenhang) between the size of win-sets of a government and its international
bargaining power is inversely proportional (umgekehrt proportional). This is the Schelling theorem. Domestic
weakness (Innenpolitische Schwäche), so a small one win-set, therefore means a strengthening of the
negotiating position at the international level (Verhandlungsposition). The primary source of bargaining
power in two-level games is a government's ability to credibly threaten to reject a negotiated outcome
(glaubhaft mit der Ablehnung eines Verhandlungsergebnisses zu drohen). The smaller that win-set of a
government, the more credibly it can make concessions to its intergovernmental negotiating partners in
negotiations at international level, referencing its domestic political constraints. It is a rational negotiating
strategy for national governments to domestically "tie one's hands", i.e. to downsize their win-set with the aim
of strengthening their international bargaining power.

Bürokratietheorie
“The decisions and actions of governments are essential intranational policy outcomes: outcomes in the
sense that what happens is not chosen as a solution to a problem, but rather results from compromise,
coalition, competition and confusion among government officials who see different sides of an issue;
politically because the activity from which the results arise can be best seen as a negotiate" „Die
Entscheidungen und Handlungen von Regierungen sind im wesentlichen intra nationale politische
Ergebnisse Ergebnisse in dem Sinne, daß das, was geschieht, nicht als Lösung für ein Problem gewählt
wurde, sondern sich vielmehr aus Kompromiß Koalition, Wettbewerb und Verwirrung unter den
Regierungsbeamten ergibt, welche unterschiedliche Seiten einer Fragestellungen sehen politisch deshalb,
weil die Tätigkeit, aus welcher die Ergebnisse entstehen, am besten als Aushandeln charakterisiert werden
kann“

The analysis of foreign policy cannot be based on the abstraction of the state as a unified and monolithic
actor in the international system. Rather, it must take the foreign policy decision-making process within a
state as its starting point.

Pluralistic understanding of politics; Pluralistisches Politikverständnis

Process-oriented approach: The design of the foreign policy decision making process has an impact on the
content of foreign policy decisions. Domestic decision-making takes place as a negotiation process
(Aushandlungsprozess) between a large number of actors, each with their own interests. A priori, no
hierarchy between different policy areas (unterschiedlichen Politikfeldern) can be assumed.

Economic theory of bureaucracy; Ökonomische Bürokratietheorie

Conception of rational, utility-maximizing representatives of bureaucratic organizations (Nutzen

maximierender Repräsentanten bürokratischer Organisationen). Bureaucracy is not just a passive and
neutral "agent" of political "principals".

Methodological individualism; Methodologischer Individualismus

Individual holders of bureaucratic positions within an executive who participate in negotiations because of
their bureaucratic skills and resources.

Concept of action channels:

The bureaucratic assignment of positions (Zuordnung von Positionen), responsibilities and competences
(Zuständigkeiten und Kompetenzen) in the foreign policy decision-making process is decisive for which
individuals are to be considered as participants in the intra-governmental negotiation process.

"Where you stand depends on where you sit"!

The knowledge of the bureaucratic position of an actor allows conclusions to be drawn about their
substantive standpoints (Standpunkte). How is that theoretically justified?

1. Homo Bureaucraticus
Holders (Inhaber) of bureaucratic positions base their foreign policy decisions on maximizing interest
of their organization. This connection is mediated by three causal mechanisms:
• Self-interest in career advancement and income; Eigeninteresse an beruflichem Aufstieg
und Einkommen
• Socialization processes
• Selective recruitment practice
2. Primary organizational interests; Primäre Organisationsinteressen
Securing their existence and strengthening their relative position within the executive branch. Ability
to effectively perform functions and defend one's own responsibilities, especially in the area of so-
called organization essence. Autonomous control over a large budget.
 Foreign policy standpoints
of individual holders of
bureaucratic positions

Condition factors for the explanatory power of the approach:

• Bread and butter subjects

• Organizations with clearly specified tasks

Political power within the executive is not concentrated in one actor, but is distributed across several actors.
Foreign policy does not arise by command and allegiance (Befehl und Gefolgschaft), but as the result of
internal government negotiations. The results of these negotiation processes are determined by the
distribution of bargaining power.

Sources of bargaining power:

• Institutional rules of decision-making: agenda-setting power, allocation of voting rights (Zuteilung von
Stimmrechten), formal responsibility for implementation
• Bureaucratic access to the administrative apparatus (Zugriff auf Verwaltungsapparat): technical
expertise, information advantage, material resources

Principal Agent Reasoning:

Despite the formal hierarchies in executive branches, there is only a limited possibility of hierarchical control
and steering determined by:

• Agent's information advantage

• Control and sanction costs for the principal

The approach underestimates the importance of formal hierarchies. Too little attention is paid to the formal
final decision-maker (dem formalen Letztentscheider wird zu geringe Aufmerksamkeit gewidmet)

innerhalb = within ; sodern = rather, but

 Which actors are to consider The central actors of the analysis are individual actors within the
executive who, by virtue of their bureaucratic position, are involved in
in the analysis?
the decision-making process.

What are the foreign policy The bureaucratic position of an actor determines its position in foreign
policy. Individual position holders strive to advance the interests of
positions of these actors?
their organization.

How strong is the influence of an The bureaucratic position of an actor determines its position in the
actor on a foreign policy decision? intragovernmental negotiation process and thus its influence on
foreign policy decisions.

Organisationstheorie
The organizational mediation of foreign policy decisions is important for the content of foreign policy with
regard to the decision-making processes and the implementation. Foreign policy is a function of the
characteristics of organizational decision-making and implementation processes (organizational routines).

The organizational theory approach differs from the bureaucratic approach, in the former, foreign policy is
explained by actions within the organization (Außenpolitik erklärt sich aus dem Handeln innerhalb der
Organisation). It’s a structural approach because the structure of the organization shapes the design of the
decisionmaking and implementation processes foreign policy. In the bureaucratic approach foreign policy is
explained by the actions between organizations. It’s an actor-centric approach, foreign policy is the result of
the negotiation processes of rationally acting bureaucratic actors who want to maximize the utility of their
organization.

Assumption: Bounded rationality ; Begrenzte Rationalität

Foreign policy actors are confronted with highly complex tasks that they try to solve with their limited
cognitive abilities (Den außenpolitischen Akteuren stellen sich Aufgaben hoher Komplexität, die sie mit ihren
beschränkten kognitiven Fähigkeiten zu bearbeiten versuchen). The actors are hardly in a position (sind die
Akteure kaum in der Lage) to make utility-maximizing decisions that correspond to this external complexity.
Therefore, limited rational actors (begrenzt rationale Akteure) strive to define the challenges they face (die
an sie gestellten Herausforderungen) in such a way that they can master them with their abilities. They
design models of reality that are less complex than objective reality and depict them in organizations as a
new resource for action (bilden diese in Organisationen als einer neuen Handlungsressource ab). The
rationality of their actions then refers to the reduced model of reality, in which foreign policy challenges
(Herausforderungen) are dealt with through the structure of the organization.

Functions of organizations

Organizations are a mean:

• to expand the resources for action and at the same time aimed at the realization of specific
organizational purposes. (zur Erweiterung der Handlungsressourcen und gleichzeitig auf die
Realisierung bestimmter Organisationszwecke gerichtet)
• to reduce complexity and thereby simplify and standardize decision-making (Entscheidungslagen zu
vereinfachen und zu standardisieren).
• to lay paths (Pfade) for decisions and actions, and in this way enable action in a complex
environment. (Handlungen in einer komplexen Umwelt zu ermöglichen)

Organizations differ (unterscheiden) from the environment (Umwelt) by a high degree of regulation
(Verregelungsgrad) of the interaction processes taking place in them (der in ihnen ablaudenden
Interaktionsprozesse). Central features of these interaction processes are:
• Arbeitsteilung; Division of labor: Organizations reflect the complexity of their external environment in their
internal structure of functional differentiation according to their limited rationality and the interests
pursued in it.
• Hierarchical superiority and subordination (Uber und Unterordnung): Organizations define fixed areas of
activity and task descriptions (Tätigkeitsbereiche und Aufgabenbeschreibungen) for their members
through superiority and subordination. The hierarchical order of organizations should serve:
o to be able to control the alignment of actions with the purpose of the organization (die
Ausrichtung der Handlungen am Organisationszweck steuern zu können)
o reduce transaction costs for interaction (Transaktionskosten)
o to be able to centrally realign (zentral neu ausrichten) the requirements (gestellten
Anforderungen) placed on the members of the organization
The structure of the organization determines (bedingt) the actions of the members, the action-guiding
(handlungdleitenden) interests of the members themselves are eliminated as an explanatory variable (in
contrast to the bureaucracy-theoretical approach).

Mitglieder = members

“Governmental behavior can … be understood … as outputs of large organizations functioning according to

standard patterns of behavior.”

How do you recognize the hierarchical way organizations work?

The central instruments of action of organizations are routines, previously determined ways of acting (vorab
festgelegte Handlungsweisen) that are triggered by external stimuli (externe Reize). Three types of
organizational routines:

• Standard Operation Procedures (SOPs) for performing simple (einfacher) routines

• Standardized action sequences (Handlungssequenzen) as coordination of more SOPs
• An organization's repertoire of actions (Handlungsrepertoire) that provide alternative options for
action

Functions of organizational decision-making processes:

• Reduktion von Komplexitat

• Koordination der Arbeitsablaufe (work processes) innerhalb der Organisation
• Hieratchische Kontrolle einzelner Abeitsablaufe (individual workflows)
• Legitimation durch etablierte Regeln (established rules)

How organizational routines work

1. Breaking down (Zerlegung) a foreign policy call for action into sub-problems (Teilprobleme)
in order to assign these organizational units, both processes being dependent on the structure of the
organization:
• Allows the concentration of attention (Aufmerksamkeit) and resources on sub-aspects
(Teilaspekte)
• Facilitates (Erleichter) the coordination of internal organizational processes
2. Satisficing-Prinzip; Satisfaction-Principle
Search for satisfactory courses of action (zufriedenstellenden Handlungsoptionen), based on
previous actions of the organization.
3. Inkrementale Lernmethode; Incremental learning method
Learning from experience (Erfahrung), with feedback processes from the environment of the
organization and learning while avoiding (Änderungen) radical and far-reaching changes.
Öffentliche Meinung (Public Opinion)
• What is the relationship between the media, the public and politics?
• What influence does the public have on foreign policy decisions?
• What influence does the media have on the public?

"Under public opinion public is the aggregation of individual attitudes and opinions on subjects that are of
public interest and may be subject to political decisions". „verstehen unter öffentlicher Meinung die
Aggregation von individuellen Einstellungen und Meinungen zu Gegenständen, die von öffentlichem
Interesse sind und politischen Entscheidungen unterliegen können“. Öffentliche Meinung can be expressed
as Konsensmeinung, Fragmentierte Meinung, Keine Meinung.

Außenpolitische Relevanz der öffentlichen Meinung is given by:

• Inhaltliche Ausprägung (content) der öffentlichen meinung

• Salienz
• Institutionalisierte Einflusschancen (Institutionalized chances of influence)

"Salienz serves as a technical term (Fachbegriff) that captures the meaning, urgency, importance or intensity
(bedeutung, Drinlichkeit, Wichtigkeit oder Intensitat) of a topic or an opinion”. Die salienz of a topic can be
measured (gemessen warden) by the data collected in surveys (Umfragen erhobenen Daten zu den) on the
most important topics or problems on the political agenda.

Rally-Effekt (or rally 'round the flag effect) is an upsurge in public opinion (verursachter Aufschwung in der
öffentlichen Meinung) in favor of the US President caused by a Krisensituation. The causative crisis must…
 • Be an international event (Ereignis) or confront the nation as a whole (als Ganzes)
• Directly affect the United States and in particular the US President
• Be spezifisch, dramatisch and zeitlich scharf

Salienz and in particular the rally effect are measured using a Job-Approval-Frage (Do you think the
president is doing a good job?), the main Indicators are Intensitat und Dauer (duration).

Medien
(1) Was sind Medien?

(2) Wie arbeiten Medien?

– Innenleben
– Wirtschaftliche Verhältnisse
– Journalistische Kriterien

(3) Woher beziehen die Medien Informationen?

(4) Welche Wirkung haben sie auf die Gesellschaft?

(5) Wer kontrolliert die Medien?

Definition Massenmedien in general are all the social institutions (Einrichtungen der Gesellschaft) that use
technical means of reproduction (technischer Mittel der Vervielfältigung) to disseminate communication
(Verbreitung von Kommunikation). Im Prozess der politischen Kommunikation, Massenmedien are carriers
(Trager) of information that form the link (Bindeglied) zwischen Regierung und Öffentlichkeit.

Medieneffekte:

– Agenda-Setting: Agenda setting is called the ability of the mass media to determine the essential
topic of the day (Thema des Tage). Topics that are prominent in the mass media (Themen, die in
den Massenmedien stark hervortreten) are considered important in the public eye (werden in der
öffentlichen Wahrnehmung als wichtig betrachtet).
– Priming: "The term priming effect refers to the ability of news programs to affect the criteria by which
political leaders are judged”. The more prominent a topic appears in the media, the greater the
impact on the standards by which political actors are judged by the public. (Je prominenter ein
Thema in den Medien auftritt, desto größer ist der Einfluss auf die Standards, nach denen politische
Akteure von der Öffentlichkeit bewertet werden)
 – Framing: "To frame is to select some aspects of a perceived reality and make them more salient in
a communicating text, in such a way as to promote a particular problem definition, causal
interpretation, moral evaluation, and/or treatment recommendation for the item described.

Selection and use (Auswahl und Einsatz) of temporally enduring and socially anchored patterns of
interpretation (zeitlich überdauernden und sozial verankerten Interpretationsmustern) in order to
make events accessible from a certain perspective. Funktionen:

• Informationen strukturieren
• Komplexitat reduzieren
• Selektion neuer Informationen leiten (guide)

Intelligence
Intelligence ist der Prozess und das Ergebnis (result) einer bürokratischen Koordination, in order to:

a) provide the political leadership (der politischen Fuhrung) with knowledge of events and the possible
consequences (Kenntnis von Vorgängen und den möglichen Folgen) of their and others' behavior
(eigenen und fremden Verhaltens) on the basis of publicly available or newly acquired information
(auf der Basis öffentlich zugänglicher oder erst erschlossener Informationen).
b) prevent other actors from gaining knowledge about their own information gathering and the
implementation of interests, where this should be denied according to the will of the political
leadership. (Andere Akteure davon abzuhalten, Kenntnis über die eigene Informationsgewinnung
und Interessenumsetzung zu erlangen, wo dies nach Willen der politischen Führung verweigert
werden soll)

Andere = other

In the Polikfeld there’s different types of intelligence. Politische Intelligence captures (erfasst) developments
in other states and groups (Entwicklungen anderer Staaten und Gruppen) that are relevant to foreign and
domestic policy (aussen un innenpolitisch relevante). Militärische Intelligence explores die militärischen
Fähigkeiten anderer Staaten und Gruppen. Ökonomische Intelligence erfasst the state and possible
developments (den Zustand und möglichen Entwicklungen) of foreign economies (Volkswirtschaften) and
markets (Markte). Scientific and technological (Wissenschaftlich-technologische) Intelligence observes the
development of research (Forschung) and technology in anderen Staaten, especially in militarisch sensitiven
areas. Sozio-kulturelle Intelligence analysiert die Stabilitat von Staaten and the Politisierung (politicization) of
ethnic groups (Ethnien und Religionen. Okologische Intelligence analysiert die Entwicklungen der neturlichen
Umwelt.
Kategorisierung von Intelligence nach Acquisition Method (Beschaffungsmethode):

1) Humint (human intelligence): Von Menschen beschaffte Intelligence.

2) Techint (technical intelligence): Data acquisition using technical means (Datenbeschaffung mit
technischen Mitteln).
3) Imint (imagery intelligence): Images from reconnaissance flights and satellites (Bildmaterial aus
Aufklarungsflugen und Satelliten).
4) Sigint (signal intelligence): Interception (Abfangen) von Signalen (Radar, Radio, Morse, etc.).
5) Comint (communications intelligence): Subtype (Unterart) von Sigint (Telefon, Email, Fax).

Drei Funktionen von intelligence services (Nachrichtendiensten) in der internationalen Politik

1) Intelligence (recognize (erkennen) andere Akteure)

2) Counterintelligence (protection (Schutz) vor Spionage anderer Akteure), Counterintelligence
includes:
• Defensive counterintelligence (Spionageabwehr)
• Offensive counterintelligence (Gegenspionage)
3) Covert action (secretly influencing (Heimlich beeinflussen) andere Akteure), Verdekte Handlungen
sind Aktivitaten von Regierungen aimed at influencing (zu beeinflussen und die dann angewandt
werden) die politischen, okonomischen un militarischen Bedingungen in anderen Staaten, which are
used wenn die Regierung is not to appear or be publicly acknowledged (nicht in Erscheinung treten
oder dies öffentlich nicht eingestanden werden soll). Verdecktes Handeln can be (lasst sich)
kategorisieren in Propaganda, politische und oconomische Aktionen und paramilitarische Aktionen.

Zwei Denkschulen (schools of thought)

1. Information for decision makers: Intelligence is intended to enable political decision-makers to make
better decisions by being ahead of the curve (Intelligence soll politischen Entscheidungsträgern durch
Informationsvorsprung bessere Entscheidungsfindung ermöglichen)

2. Warfare by quieter means: Intelligence als Activitat; Intelligence Community is used (genutzt) als
politicsches Instrument.

Characteristics (Merkmale) von Intelligence Communities

1) Distinguishing (Unterscheidung) zwischen Auslands- und Inlands Aufklärung (reconnaissance)

2) Unterscheidung zwischen militärischer und ziviler Intelligence
3) Organisatorische Differenzierung von Techint und Humint
4) Central evaluation (Zentrale Auswerung)
5) Centers on specific problem areas run “jointly” by various security services (Terrorismus,
Rechtextremismus, Cyber, illegale Migration) (Von verschiedenen Sicherheitsdiensten „gemeinsam“
geführte Zentren zu bestimmten Problemfeldern)

Zentrale SOPs (Standard Operation Procedures) in der Kommunikation zwischen Regierung und Intelligence
Community

USA: The President's Daily Brief (PDB) is presented to the President and his closest advisors by the DNI
every morning during a half-hour meeting. The PDB provides information about the results of all American
services.

Germany: In the Chancellor briefing the Federal Chancellor is informed daily in a 2-page paper on a current
topic relevant to the Federal Government. In contrast to the PDB, no verbal briefing. In the intelligence
situation the heads of services, state secretaries and a representative of military intelligence meet weekly.
The meeting is chaired by the head of the Chancellery or the coordinator for the intelligence services.

Drei Faktoren, die den Einfluss von Intelligence auf die Außenpolitik begünstigen (favor):

1) Ein nationaler Konsens (national consensus) in der Außenpolitik

2) Intelligence agencies' willingness (Bereitschaft) to adapt (anzupassen) their analysis to
government objectives (Zielen)
 3) A good personal relationship (personliche Beziehung) between the intelligence officer
(Intelligence-Verantwortlichen) and the head of government (Regierungschef)

Ursachen (causes) von Intelligence failures in der Phase des Auftrags (orders) (1st cycle phase)

• Fehler in transmission / articulation (Ubermittlung/Artikulation)

• Fehler in threat assessment (Bedrohungseinschatzung)

Ursachen von Intelligence failures in der Steuerung (management) (2nd cycle phase)

• Methodische Fehler
• Incorrect or inadequate technology (falsche oder unzulängliche Technik)
• Mismatch of Humint and Techint (Missverhältnis von Humint und Techint)
• Missverhältnis von official cover vs. non official cover

Ursachen von Intelligence Failures in der Beschaffung und Auswertung (procurement and evaluation) (3rd
cycle phase)

• Wrong / bad (Falsche/Schlechte) Filter

• Lack of capacity (Kapazitätsmängel) (e.g. too few translators or wrong languages)
• Falsche Interpretation von Rohdaten (raw data) (e.g. Imint, Comint)

Ursachen von Intelligence Failures in der Analyse (4th cycle phase)

• Politisierung
• Groupthink
• Kognitive Rigidität (Voreinstellungen)
• Inappropriate analogies (Ungeeignete Analogien)
• Mirror imaging; fundamentaler Attributionsfehler

Ursachen von Intelligence Failures in der Unterrichtung (briefing) (5th cycle phase)

• Poor articulation or lack of communication of intelligence findings by the services

• Government disregard (Nichtbeachtung) for intelligence findings

Intelligence communities are integrated (eingebunden) into a process (ideally: intelligence cycle), they work
according to a long-term, medium-term and short-term interest profile (Sie arbeiten nach einem langfristigen,
mittelfristigen und kurzfristigen Interessensprofil) of their government. Intelligence communities are relatively
free in their management and they work on the principle of secrecy (Prinzip der Geheimhaltung). Intelligence
Communities sind in ein System der Kontrolle eingebunden.

Sozialkonstruktivismus
First of all, der Sozialkonstruktivismus ist ein metatheoretischer Standpunkt (point of view), keine Theorie.
Kern (Core) der sozialkonstruktivistischen Metatheorie: Die Identitäten und Interessen von Akteuren formen
sich in einem sozialen Kontext sie sind also sozial konstruiert (are formed in a social context – so they are
socially constructed). Ontologically der SK argumentiert dass "things" (Dinge) only become real (real
warden) durch soziale Interkation.

Der sozialkonstruktivistischen Ontologie is located auf 2 Dimensionen:

1. Materialism vs. Idealism

• Moderat idealistische Ontologie
• The meaning of the material world is not revealed by itself, but requires interpretation (Die
Bedeutung der materiellen Welt erschließt sich nicht aus ihr selbst heraus, sondern bedarf der
Interpretation)
• Structures are not materially defined, but primarily have an ideal character (Strukturen sind nicht
materiell definiert, sondern haben primär ideellen Charakter)
2. Individualism vs. Structuralism
• Mittelposition (middle position) des Sozialkonstruktivismus
• Structuring theory (Strukturierungstheorie) according to Anthony Giddens
• Akteure und Strukturen konstituieren sich wechselseitig (constitute themselves mutually)
There is a broad (breites) epistemologisches Spektrum innerhalb des Sozialkonstruktivismus. Radikaler
Sozialkonstruktivismus ist eine post-positivistische Position, Verstehen als Ziel der Analyse (understanding
ist he goal of the analysis), Ablehnung (rejection) positivistischer Methoden. Moderater
Sozialkonstruktivismus ist eine Positivistisch-angelehnte (positivist leaning) Position, Erklären als Ziel der
Analyse (explanation is the goal of analysis), Nutzung (use) positivistischer Methoden.

Rationalismus und Sozialkonstruktivismus are opposite (entgegen gesetzte) Metatheorien. In Rationalismus

Normen haben (max.) regulativen Charakter, Individualistisches Verständnis (understanding) von Akteur und
Struktur. Homo oeconomicus, Logik der Zweckrationalität. Interessen als erklärende Variable (explanatory
variable). In Sozialkonstruktivismus Normen haben konstitutiven Charakter, Dialektisches Verständnis von
Akteur und Struktur. Homo sociologicus, Logik der Angemessenheit (appropriateness). Normen als
erklärende Variable.

Die Rolle von Normen in den internationalen Beziehungen

Normen sind “value-based, intersubjectively shared expectations of appropriate behavior” (Normen sind
„wertegestützte, intersubjektiv geteilte Erwartungen angemessenen Verhaltens“). Related (bezogen) auf das
Feld internationale Beziehungnen, we can say that das international System ist eine soziale Struktur und
normen sind konstitutiver Bestandteil (part) dieser Struktur.

Vier zentrale Merkmale (characteristics) von Normen:

• Intersubjektiv (shared between actors, not just one actor’s ideas)

• Direkte Verhaltensorientierung (behavioral orientation) (Condemnation or demand)
• Dimension des Sollens (orders) (determine right and wrong independently of sanction mechanisms)
• Counterfactually valid (Kontrafaktisch gultig) (Violations do not mean invalidity)

It is assumed (Angenommen wird) dass Regierung Normen beider Ebenen (norms of both levels) zu
entsprechen versuchen (tries to conform to) (international un innerstaatliche Normen)

Die Stärke von Normen ist dynamisch, nicht statisch: three-stage life cycle (Dreistufiger Lebenszyklus) von
Normen (Entstehung-emergence, Ausbreitung-spread und wachsende Akzeptanz-growing acceptance,
Internalisierung-internalization). Criteria for the strength of a norm are:

• Intrinsische Mermale einer Norm:

o Spezifizitat-Specificity (dual structure)
o Universalitat-Universality
o Dauerhaftigkeit-Durability
• Kontexr einer Norm
o Kommunalitat-Commonality (critical mass of norm followers)
o Relation to other norms (Verhältnis zu anderen Normen)
o Degree of institutionalization (Institutionalisierungsgrad)

Sozialisation und die Internalisierung von Normen

Why do actors follow norms? Warum befolgen Akteure Normen? Norms acquire a prescriptive status as a
result of socialization processes (Normen erlangen einen präskriptiven Status in Folge von
Sozialisationsprozessen), there are different degrees of internalization (Unterschiedliche
Internalisierungsgrade) of norms. A hoher (higher) Internalisierungsgrade einer Norm makes so Staaten act
in accordance with norms and follow a logic of appropriateness (handeln normengeleitet und folgen einer
Logik der Angemessenheit), so norms are habitually complied with (Normen wird habituell entsprochen). The
internalization of norms can take place via various socialization mechanisms (verschiedene
Sozialisationsmechanismen):

1. Imitation learning ; Imitationslernen

• No active dissemination of norms through socialization authorities (Keine aktive Verbreitung von
Normen durch Sozialisationsinstanzen)
• Tendency to socialize, to adopt behaviors from their social environment (Neigung von Sozialisanden,
Handlungsweisen aus ihrem sozialen Umfeld zu Übernehmen)
• Demonstration Effects - Demonstrationeffekte
 • Preferred templates (Bevorzugte Schablonen) für Imitationslernen: Powerful and prestigious
(Machtige und renommierte Staaten
2. Aktive dissemination (Verbreitung) von Normen durch norm entrepreneurs
• Of great importance, especially in the development phase of Normen
• International community of states (Internationale Staatengemeinschaft), internationale
Organisationen und NGOs as norm entrepreneurs
3. Argumentatives Handeln
• Jürgen Habermas: Theory of communicative action (kommunikativen Handelns)
• Arguing vs. Bargaining
• Internalisierung von Normen in argumentativen Diskursen über ihre Geltung (validity)
• Dynamics of argumentative action (normative entrapment) (Eigendynamiken argumentativen
Handelns)
4. Gesellschaftlicher Druck - Societal pressures
• Social demands for norm-compliant action (Gesellschaftliche Forderungen normenkonformen
Handelns)
• Transnationale 'boomerang'-Effekte
• The practice of acting in accordance with the norm results in the internalization of a norm (Praxis
normenkonformen Handelns resultiert in Internalisierung einer Norm)

Sozialkonstruktivistische Konzepte und Anwendung (application) in der AP Forschung (research)

Welche Konzepte erlauben (allow) eine sozialkonstruktivistische Analyse der Außenpolitik?

• Rollen/Identitaten: Staaten spielen Rollen die entstehen (arise) durch Erwartungen an sich selbst -
expectations of yourself ("role conception") oder durch Erwartungen des internationalen Umfelds ("role
prescription")

• Security cultures - Sicherheitskulturen: Norms about security are created in the historical and social
context (Im geschichtlichen und sozialen Kontext werden Normen über Sicherheit geschaffen). Was stellt
eine Bedrohung dar? Was nicht? What constitutes a threat? What not? These norms find their way into and
determine foreign policy through socialization processes (Diese Normen finden durch Sozialisationsprozesse
ihrem Weg in und bestimmen die Außenpolitik.)

• Worldviews - Weltbilder: In the historical and social context, within the framework of discourses and
identities, norms about the world are created in general. What kind of state are we?

Anarchy in the international environment: Anarchy is what states make of it!

There is no inevitable 'logic of anarchy'; Es gibt keine zwangsläufige ‚Logik der Anarchie‘. M internationalen
System drei verschiedene Kulturen von Anarchie can be distinguished (konnen unterschieden werden).
Diese Kulturen result (ergeben) from the prevailing norms in the system regarding the use of force in
international politics (Diese Kulturen ergeben sich aus den im System vorherrschenden Normen zum Einsatz
von Gewalt in der internationalen Politik):

1. Die Hobbes’sche Kultur: Der andere Staat als Feind (enemy)

• High level of violence (Hohe Gewaltbereitschaft)

• Self-help system and security dilemma (Selbsthilfesystem und Sicherheitsdilemma)

2. Die Locke’sche Kultur: Der andere Staat als Rivale

• Contained willingness to use violence (Eingehegte Gewaltbereitschaft)

• Principle of sovereignty and international law (Souveränitätsprinzip und Völkerrecht)

3. Die Kant’sche Kultur: Der andere Staat als Freund

• Non-violence (Gewaltverzicht)
• Collective security and cooperation (Kollektive Sicherheit und Kooperation)
Politische Psychologie und Groupthink
Psychological approaches to explaining foreign policy analysis (Psychologische Erklärungsansätze der
Außenpolitikanalyse) are to be located at the level of the individual. Politische Psychologie sheds light on
how cognitive processes and emotional needs (Bedurfnisse) influence the perception (Wahrnehmung) of
decision-makers."Cold Cognition" & "Hot Emotions" are the explanatory variables (erklarenden Variablen) of
politischen Psychologie.

Human capacities for information processing (Informationsveratbeitung) are limited, therefore

„Einsparungsstrategien“("Saving strategies") are necessary, like simple heuristics instead of complicated
intellectual (gedanklicher) operations. An Einsparungsstrategien is the recourse to knowledge structures in
long-term memory (Ruckgriff auf Wissensstrukturen im Langzeitgeachtnis): schemes, images, scripts
(Schemata, Bilder, Skripts). There is a risk of misperceptions (Risiko von Fehlwahrnehmungen), like
Diskrepanzen zwischen objektiver un subjektiver Situation, which could have been avoided (vermeidbar
gewesen wären) with an unbiased view of the information (bei einer unvoreingenommenen Sichtung der
Informationen). Consequences (folgen) of Einsparungsstrategien:

1. Kognitive Rigidität

Informationen which confirm (bestatigen) vorgefertigte (ready-made) Schemata are preferentially taken into
account and weighted more heavily (werden vorzugsweise berücksichtig und stärker gewichtet).
Informationen die vorgefertigte Schemata in Frage stellen (put into question) is avoided or devalued
(gemieden oder abgewertet. There is a Risiko of false security (trugerischen Sicherheit) durch "premature
cognitive closure" (Jervis 1976).

2. Fundamentaler Attributionsfehler ; Fundamental attribution error

Negatively assessed foreign behavior (bewertetes fremdes Verhalten) is attributed (zuruckgefuhrt) auf
Intentionen und nicht auf situational circumstances (situative Umstande). An example with armaments
processes (Rustungsprozessen): opposing (Gegnerische) Rustung are interpreted (gedeutet) as an
expression of aggressive intentions (Ausdruck aggressiver Absichten), nicht als Reaktion auf Unsicherheit
(insecurity).

3. Problematische Auswahl und Verwendung von Analogien ; Problematic selection and use of
analogies

Situationen are viewed from the angle of interpretation (Deutungswinkel) of individuell oder kolletiv
particularly formative experiences (besonders pregender Erfahrungen) like WW I and II oder Vietnamkrieg.
"Lessons from history” (Lehren aus der Geschichte) are overgeneralized (ubergeneralisiert) and can give
recommendations for action (Hanflungsempfehlungen) that are inadequate for the situation
(situationsinadaquate).

Groupthink

In 1972, Irving L. Janis developed (entwickelte) das Konzept des Groupthink while he was analyzing (als er
analysierte) the American decision to invade the Bay of Pigs (and later Pearl Harbor, the Vietnam War and
the Iran hostage rescue). Groupthink is “a way of thinking used by people (von Personen benutzte Art zu
denken) when the quest for unanimity (wenn das Streben nach Einmutigkeit) in a cohesive group becomes
so dominant (derart dominant wird) that it causes realistic assessments (Abschatzung) of alternative courses
of action to be overlooked (Handlungsalternativen ubergangen wird)”. Die Analyseebene ist die
Individualebene. As an analysis concept, groupthink distinguishes itself on the one hand from the analysis of
the thinking prerequisites of individuals (Denkvoraussetzungen von Individuen) and on the other hand from
the institutional influences on the decision-making process (den institutionellen Einflüssen auf die
Entscheidungsfindung).

• Voreussetzungen ; Prerequisites:

1. High group cohesion ; Hohe Kohasion der Gruppe

2. Authoritarian leadership style ; Autoritarer Fuhrungsstil
3. Isolation from the “real world” ; Abschottung von der realen Welt
4. Lack of clear decision-making rules and methods ; Fehlen klarer Entscheidungsregeln und methoden
5. Similar background of group members ; Ahnilcher Hintergrung der Gruppenmitflieder
6. Similar views/opinions of group members ; Ahnliche Sichtweisen/Meinungen der Gruppenmitglieder

In addition, there is particularly great stress (Hinzu kommt ein besonders großer Stress) in a decision-making
situation in which the group members draw emotional security from the group cohesion (in einer
Entscheidungssituation, in der die Gruppenmitglieder emotionale Sicherheit aus der Gruppenkohäsion
ziehen).

• Symptome:

1. Illusion der Unverletzbarkei (Invulnerability)

2. Belief in the group as a moral authority; Glaube an die Gruppe als moralische Instanz
3. Kollektives Rationalisieren (one's actions cannot be wrong ; das eigen Handeln kann nicht falsch sein)
4. Stereotypisierung der Fremdgruppe (outside groups)
5. Selbstzensur (self-censorship)
6. Illusion der Einmütigkeit (unanimity)
7. Direkter Druk auf Abweichler (pressure on dissenters)
8. „Denkwächter“ (Thought Guardians: Protectors of group leaders, information that upsets the group's
complacency is sealed off.)

• Folgen von Groupthink

1. The number of alternative courses of action (Zahl der Handlungsalternativen) is limited, often to two
2. There is no serious (Ernsthafte) reflection on the goals and purposes (Ziele und Zwecke)
3. Keine kritische Diskussion des Handlungsverlaufs, even in the face of later problems (selbst angesichts
später auftretender Probleme)
4. Information from outside the group boundaries (außerhalb der Gruppengrenzen) will not be considered
(werden nicht berücksichtigt)
5. Kognitive Dissonanzen are avoided (vermieden), Informationen that corresponds to the group worldview
(die mit dem Gruppenweltbild ubereinstimmen) is given greater consideration (warden verstarkt
berucksichtigt)
6. Alternativen zum the chosen path (eingeschlagenen Weg) will not be discussed later (werden später
nicht mehr diskutiert)
7. Even if there are problems with the implementation, the decision made will be retained (wird die
getroffene Entscheidung beibehalten)

Overall, groupthink processes will result in an inadequate decision but this does not mean that all inadequate
decisions result from groupthink processes.

Is groupthink driving us to war?

“The growing influence of the Office of Special Plans in the year leading up to the war coincided with the
decreasing influence of the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency. "For Feith and Luti, anyone who isn't
100 percent with them is 100 percent against them — a very Manichaean world," says a Defense
Department adviser. A former CIA expert said of the Office of Special Plans people: “They consider
themselves outsiders. There is a high level of paranoia there. They have convinced themselves that they are
on the side of the angels and that the rest of the government are idiots.”

"So far the Bush administration's foreign policy team has manifested all the symptoms of groupthink as Janis
identified:

• The illusion of invulnerability emerged from the group process;

• Risks of the decision made were overlooked;
• The opponents were perceived and judged stereotypically;
• There was an unquestioning belief in the morality of one's own administration;
• Those who formulated counter-arguments were subjected to direct pressure;
• The group itself sealed itself off from outside information;
• Eventually the scissors worked in the head, a kind of self-censorship.
Unfortunately, Bush has surrounded himself with advisers sharing ideological cohesiveness and radical
views.”

Groupthink und Medien

The processes that take place within a group of decision-makers and consultants are conveyed to society via
the media system (werden über das Mediensystem in die Gesellschaft vermittelt), which in this way takes
part in the groupthink process (am Prozess des Groupthink Teil hat).

- One-sided (Einseitigen) information

- Moralischen Dicherheit
- Dämonisierung von Fremdgruppen
- Reduzierung der Handlungsalternativen (alternative courses of action)
- Self-insurance (Selbstversicherung)

Groupthink und Entscheidungen

For "vitalen Entscheidungen (decisions)"...

- in the face of perceived threats, angesichts wahrgenommener Bedrohungen

- the use of the military, dem Einsatz von Militar
- the pursuit of vital interests, der Verfolgung vitaler Interessen

The circle of decision-makers is often limited and reduced to a few people (wird der Kreis der Entscheider
häufig eingeschränkt und reduziert sich auf wenige Personen) who have secret knowledge (die über
Geheimwissen verfügen). This group cuts (schottet) itself off from other people (anderen Personen), which is
why certain information and dissident attitudes are not taken into account. In the course (Verlauf) of decision-
making, when a process of groupthink is set in motion (in Gang kommt), isolation from dissenting opinions
(abweichenden Meinungen) within the group also sets in.

Groupthink und konsensuale Entscheidungsfindung

Groupthink Consensual decision-making

Pressure to conform (Konformitatsdruck) Independence (Unabhängigkeit) of members

Dissenting opinions are voiced (Abweichende
Dissenting opinions are not voiced
Meinungen werden geäußert)
Discussion dominated by leadership Objective problem solving (Sachorientierte
(Führungsdominierte) Problemlösung)
Autoritat Openness (Offenheit)

Homogene Gruppe Heterogene Gruppe

There is a review of the decision during its
The ranks are closed behind a decision
implementation

Vermeidung von (Avoiding) Groupthink

• Der Fuhrende does not predetermine (legt nicht vorab) tdie Position and does not intervene (greift) in
the group discussion (Gruppendiskussion) at the beginning.
• Die Gruppe is divided into sub-groups (in Untergruppen aufgeteilt) that work out competing solutions
(konkurrierende Losungvorschlage).
• Dissenting opinions (Abweichende Meinungen) are encouraged (ermutigt); die Position des
advocatus diaboli wird in die Diskussion introduced (eingefuhrt) in order to practice and provoke
(uben und provozieren) factual criticism.
• The group is composed (wird zusammengesetzt) heterogeneously in terms of background
(Hinterfrund) and world view (Weltsicht).
• Alle Mitglider der Gruppe are held responsible (in die Verantwortung genommen), the responsibility
is assigned concretely and not diffusely (konkret und nicht diffuse zugewiesen).
 • The group should be open to the outside world and include (einschliessen) information and advice
(Ratschlag) from Nicht-Mitgliedern in the discussion.
• Even after (nachedm) a decision has been made (getroffen wurde), the discussion for the revision of
this decision remains open.
• Problem: loyalitat.

Anstelle = Instead of

Auch = Also