$Q$SSURDFKWR7UDGLQJ6WUDWHJ\2SWLPL]DWLRQE\3HUIHFW7LPLQJ

$GDP:RMFLHFKRZVNL
3R]QDQ8QLYHUVLW\RI7HFKQRORJ\
XO3LRWURZR3R]QDĔ3RODQG
$GDP:RMFLHFKRZVNL#SXWSR]QDQSO

$EVWUDFW
0DQ\ VWRFN DQG FXUUHQF\ WUDGHUV OLNH WHFKQLFDO DQDO\VLV RI SULFH FKDUWV DQG SUHGLFWLRQ RI IXWXUH SULFH
PRYHPHQWEDVHGRQLQGLFDWRUVDVVHVVPHQWRIG\QDPLFDQGSULFHFDQGOHVWLFNIRUPDWLRQVDSSHDULQJRQFKDUWV
,Q WKLV SDSHU WKHUH LV D SURSRVDO RI DQ DOJRULWKPLF WUDGLQJ V\VWHP EDVHG RQ UHODWLYHO\ VLPSOH SULFH DFWLRQ
IRUPDWLRQLGHQWLILHGLQPL[HGWLPHLQWHUYDOVIRUWKHVDPHDVVHW+RZHYHUZKDWPDGHWKHV\VWHPHIIHFWLYHDQG
SURILWDEOH ZDV SURSHU WLPLQJ ZKLFK OLPLWHG RSHQ DQG EX\ VLJQDOV URVH E\ WKH VWUDWHJ\ RQO\ WR WLPH VORWV
VHOHFWHG LQGLYLGXDOO\ IRU HDFK GD\ RI D ZHHN 2SWLPL]DWLRQ SURFHVV DQG VHOHFWLRQ RI WKH EHVW WLPH VORWV IRU
SDUWLFXODUDVVHWFRQILUPHGWKDWQDWXUHRISULFHPRYHPHQWYDU\GHSHQGLQJRQLQYHVWRUVDFWLYLW\ZKLFKPD\EH
VWLPXODWHG E\ LPSRUWDQW PHVVDJH DQQRXQFHPHQW FDOHQGDU 7KH DLP RI WKH SDSHU LV WR VKRZ D V\VWHPDWLF
DSSURDFKIRUGHILQLQJDQDOJRULWKPLFWUDGLQJV\VWHPDQGRSWLPL]LQJSURFHGXUH$OWKRXJKLWLVLQWHQGHGWREHD
GLGDFWLFPDWHULDOLWGHVFULEHVDQXSWRGDWHV\VWHPZKLFKPD\EHXVHGIRUUHDOWUDGLQJDQGPD\EHDGDSWHGIRU
YDULRXVDVVHWV
.H\ZRUGVDOJRULWKPLFWUDGLQJWUDGLQJVWUDWHJ\VWUDWHJ\WLPLQJRSWLPL]DWLRQJHQHWLFDOJRULWKPV


,QWURGXFWLRQ FRPSHWLWLRQZKREHDWVP\WUDGLQJV\VWHPZKLFK,VWDUWHG
WREXLOGLQSDUDOOHOWRVWXGHQWV¶V\VWHPVDQGUHVXOWVRIWKH
)RUH[ WUDGLQJ LV D SURFHVV RI RSHQLQJ DQG FORVLQJ &)'
SURFHVVDUHFROOHFWHGLQWKHDUWLFOH
FRQWUDFW IRU GLIIHUHQFH FRQWUDFWV RQ FXUUHQF\ UDWHV
$OO WKH H[DPSOHV DQG VWUDWHJ\ SUHVHQWHG LQ WKLV DUWLFOH
7KHUH DUH QXPHURXV KDQGERRNV PDQXDOV DQG WXWRULDOV ZHUH ILUVW LPSOHPHQWHG LQ 04/ SURJUDPPLQJ ODQJXDJH
DYDLODEOH RYHU WKH ,QWHUQHW RQ KRZ WR WUDGH +RZHYHU
WKHQ RSWLPL]HG DQG YDOLGDWHG LQ 0HWD7UDGHU  V\VWHP
HYHU\ WUDGHU VKRXOG ILQG KLV ZD\ RI WUDGLQJ SODQ WKDW
IRU WUDGLQJ DQG DQDO\VLV ,QLWLDO H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK WKH
FRUUHVSRQGVWRLQGLYLGXDOULVNDFFHSWDQFHJUHHGSDWLHQFH
VWUDWHJ\GLGQRWVKRZLWVVWUHQJWKXQOHVVLWZDVXVHGRQO\
DQG DELOLW\ WR WUDFN SULFH FKDQJHV GXULQJ ZRUNLQJ GD\V
LQ VHOHFWHG KRXUV FKRVHQ IRU HDFK GD\ RI D ZHHN 7KH
.LQJHWDO
SURFHVVRIVHOHFWLQJKRXUVZKHQWKHSURJUDPLVDOORZHGWR
7KH LGHD IRU EXLOGLQJ WKH WUDGLQJ V\VWHP SUHVHQWHG LQ RSHQQHZFRQWUDFWVEHFDPHDQLPSRUWDQWSDUWRIVWUDWHJ\
WKLV SDSHU DSSHDUHG LQ WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH \HDU 
RSWLPLVDWLRQ 7LPLQJ VHOHFWLRQ SHUIRUPHG SHULRGLFDOO\
ZKHQ , WULHG WR HQFRXUDJH &RPSXWHU 6FLHQFH VWXGHQWV DW
PRQWKO\ XQFRYHUHG G\QDPLFV RI WUDGHUV DFWLYLW\ RQ WKH
3R]QDQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 7HFKQRORJ\ 3RODQG WR SD\
PDUNHWEXWPDGHWKHVWUDWHJ\SDUWLFXODUO\HIIHFWLYHLQWKH
DWWHQWLRQ WR DXWRPDWHG WUDGLQJ LQVWHDG RI PDQXDO
SHULRGRIH[SHULPHQW0DUFKWR$XJXVW
WUDQVDFWLRQV $OO RI SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH QRYLFH WUDGHUV
6WUXFWXUH RI WKH SDSHU LV WKH IROORZLQJ DIWHU D VKRUW
IDVFLQDWHG E\ VLPSOLFLW\ RI WUDGLQJ DQG VSHHG RI DFFRXQW LQWURGXFWLRQ D EDVLF SULFH FKDUW QRWDWLRQ ± -DSDQHVH
YDOXH FKDQJHV $IWHU VRPH WLPH RI H[HUFLVH LQ PDQXDO
FDQGOHVWLFN ± LV SUHVHQWHG 7KHQ LQ FKDSWHU  WKHUH LV
WUDGLQJ VWXGHQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR GHILQH WKHLU WUDGLQJ SODQ
GLVFXVVLRQ ZK\ LW LV EHWWHU WR XVH DQ DXWRPDWHG WUDGLQJ
DQGXVHLWFRQVHTXHQWO\WRREVHUYHWKHEHQHILWVRINHHSLQJ
VWUDWHJ\UDWKHUWKDQRSHQDQGFORVHFRQWUDFWVPDQXDOO\,Q
ORVHVXQGHUDFFHSWDEOHOHYHODQGMR\RIV\VWHPDWLFJURZWK
VHFWLRQ  WKHUH LV D SURSRVDO RI D WUDGLQJ VWUDWHJ\
RI GHPR DFFRXQW ,W GLGQRW FRPH HDVLO\ DQG RQO\ D IHZ
YDOLGDWHG RQ (8586' ZLWKLQ  PRQWKV SHULRG LQ 
VWXGHQWVEXLOWDQGXVHGWKHLUWUDGLQJSODQV6RRQLWFDPH DQG VRPH SUDFWLFDO REVHUYDWLRQV DUH FROOHFWHG IURP UHDO
WR GD\OLJKW WKDW LW LV LPSRVVLEOH WR RSHUDWH PDQXDOO\ D
OLIH WUDGLQJ XVLQJ WKH VWUDWHJ\ 7KH SDSHUV HQGV ZLWK
WUDGLQJ SODQ ZKLFK XVHV VLJQDOV WKDW PD\ DSSHDU RQ WKH
FRQFOXVLRQVDQGOLWHUDWXUHUHIHUHQFHV
VFUHHQGXULQJGD\ RUQLJKW<RXQJWUDGHUVKDGWZR ZD\V
:DUQLQJ7KHWUDGLQJVWUDWHJ\DQGUHVXOWVSUHVHQWHGLQ
WR IROORZ ± HLWKHU IRFXV RQ VLJQDOV DQGWUDGHV SHUIRUPHG
WKLV DUWLFOH DUH LOOXVWUDWLRQ RI PDUNHW EHKDYLRXU LQ
RQFH D GD\ HJ DW PLGQLJKW RU ZULWH D WUDGLQJ VWUDWHJ\
SDUWLFXODU SHULRG RI  DQG WKH\ GR QRW FRQVWLWXWH DQ
H[SHUW DGYLVRU ($ ± D SLHFH RI VRIWZDUH WKDW DQDO\VHV LQYHVWPHQW DGYLFH *RRG WUDQVDFWLRQV DQG SURILWV LQ
FXUUHQW VLWXDWLRQ RQ SULFH FKDUW DIWHU HDFK WLFN HDFK
UHSRUWHG SHULRGV GR QRW JXDUDQWHH VLPLODU EHKDYLRXU RI
PLQLPDO FKDQJH RI SULFH DQG PD\ SODFH QHZ RU FORVH
WKH WUDGLQJ V\VWHP LQ WKH IXWXUH 7KHDXWKRULVQRWOLDEOH
&)'FRQWUDFWV%HJLQQLQJVZHUHQRWHDV\±LWUHTXLUHGWR
IRUDQ\ORVVRUGDPDJHLQFOXGLQJZLWKRXWOLPLWDWLRQDQ\
OHDUQDQHZSURJUDPPLQJODQJXDJH04/±EXWVWXGHQWV
ORVVRISURILWZKLFKPD\DULVHGLUHFWO\RULQGLUHFWO\IURP
NQHZ WKDW WKLV QHZ VNLOO PD\ EULQJ WKHP D FKDQFH QRW
XVHRIRUUHOLDQFHRQLQIRUPDWLRQSURYLGHGLQWKLVSDSHU
RQO\ WR EXLOG DQ DXWRPDWLF WUDGLQJ VWUDWHJ\ EXW DOVR WR
YDOLGDWH WKHLU FRQFHSWV DQG UXOHV ZKHQ WR RSHQ D QHZ
FRQWUDFW DQG ZKHQ WR FORVH LW , SURSRVHG P\ VWXGHQWV D

413
 -DSDQHVH&DQGOHVWLFN&KDUW
$QDWRP\RIDFDQGOHVWLFN
-DSDQHVH FDQGOHVWLFN FKDUWV FDPH WR GD\OLJKW LQ WK
FHQWXU\$-DSDQHVHULFHWUDGHU0XQHKLVD+RPPDXVHG
FDQGOHVWLFNFKDUWLQJVFKHPDWRREVHUYHSULFHFKDQJHVDQG
IRUHFDVW SRVVLEOH UHYHUVDOV LQ WUHQGV &DQGOHVWLFN FKDUW
DOORZV WR DQDO\]H SULFH FKDQJHV E\ GUDZLQJ YRODWLOLW\ RI
FRQVWLWXWHV D IRUPDWLRQ WKH HDVLHU LW LV WR ILQG WKHP RQ
SULFH FKDUW 7KH VKRUWHVW IRUPDWLRQV DUH EXLOW RXW RI RQH
FDQGOH ZKLFK DSSHDUV RQ WKH FKDUW DVVLVWHG E\ VSHFLILF
QHLJKERXUKRRGRISUHFHGLQJFDQGOHV
3ULFH IRUPDWLRQV PD\ EH LGHQWLILHG RQ FKDUWV LQ HYHU\
WLPH LQWHUYDO %X\ RU VHOO VLJQDOV UHDG IURP FDQGOHV RQ
VPDOOHU LQWHUYDOV DSSHDU PRUH IUHTXHQWO\ WKDQ RQ KLJKHU
LQWHUYDOVEXWVLJQDOVGHULYHGIURPFDQGOHVWLFNIRUPDWLRQV
SULFH LQ VHOHFWHG LQWHUYDOV &KDUDFWHULVWLF SULFH YDOXHV
RSHQ±RSHQLQJSULFHSULFHRIWKHILUVWWUDQVDFWLRQFORVH
±SULFHRIWKHODVWWUDQVDFWLRQKLJK±KLJKHVWWUDQVDFWLRQDO
SULFHDQGORZ±ORZHVWSULFHLQDQDO\]HGSHULRGGHWHUPLQH
VKDSH RI D FDQGOH RQ WKH FKDUW 7KH DUHD EHWZHHQ RSHQ
RQ FKDUWV ZLWK KLJKHU WLPH LQWHUYDO !   KRXU DUH
FRQVLGHUHGDVPRUHDFFXUDWHPRUHVWDEOHDQGZLWKKLJKHU
LQIRUPDWLRQYDOXH
7KH DUW RI WUDGLQJ EDVHG RQ FDQGOHVWLFN SDWWHUQV
DVVXPHVWKDWDWUDGHUPD\GHFLGHDERXWWKHWLPHWRHQWHU
DQG FORVH SULFH OHYHO LV NQRZQ DV FDQGOH ERG\ DQG LV WKH PDUNHW WR RSHQ D QHZ FRQWUDFW EXW DOVR RQH FDQ
FRORXUHG ZKLWH EXOOLVK LI RSHQFORVH RU LV EODFN HVWLPDWH ZKHUH WR SODFH GHIHQVLYH RUGHU VR FDOOHG VWRS
EHDULVK ZKHQ RSHQ!FORVH /LQHV DERYH DQG EHORZ ORVVFORVHDQRUGHUZLWKDFFHSWHGORVVDQGZKDWOHYHOWKH
FDQGOH ERG\ UHDFKLQJ KLJK DQG ORZ FRUUHVSRQGLQJO\ DUH SULFHPD\UHDFKRQWKHFKDUWLQQH[WLQWHUYDOV±WRSODFHD
NQRZQDVXSSHUDQGERWWRPZLFNV6LQFHWKDWILUVWXVHRI
FDQGOHVWLFN SULFH FKDUWV VHYHUDO IRUPDWLRQV KDYH EHHQ
LGHQWLILHG DQG DWWULEXWHG UHYHUVDOV RU WUHQG FRQWLQXDWLRQ
VLJQDOV 7KLV SRSXODU FKDUWLQJ VFKHPD LV DOVR NQRZQ DV
-DSDQHVHFDQGOHVWLFNDQGFXUUHQWO\LWLVEXLOWLQDOOPDMRU
WRROV IRU SULFH DFWLRQDQGWHFKQLFDODQDO\VLV 7KHKLVWRU\
RIFDQGOHVWLFNFKDUWVDQGPDQ\FDQGOHVWLFNIRUPDWLRQVDUH
WDNHSURILW RUGHU WR FORVH WKH FRQWUDFW ZLWK LQFRPH
&DQGOHVWLFN IRUPDWLRQV KHOS WUDGHUV WR GHFLGH DERXW
SRWHQWLDOUHYHUVDORQWKHPDUNHWDQGVKRZDQHQWU\SRLQW
DVZHOODVWKH\DUHDOVRXVHGWRGHWHUPLQHVWRSOHYHOV,Q
RUGHU WR IRUHVHH DQG VSHFXODWH SRWHQWLDO SULFH DFWLRQ RQ
KLJKHU WLPH LQWHUYDOV LQYHVWRUV PD\ REVHUYH DQG DQDO\VH
FDQGOHV RQ VPDOOHU WLPH LQWHUYDOV VLQFH WKH\ UHDFW PRUH
FROOHFWHG DQG GHVFULEHG E\ 1LVRQ  LQ WUDGHUV¶ G\QDPLF WR SULFH FKDQJHV 7KLV SUDFWLFH UHTXLUHV
KDQGERRN H[SHULHQFH KRZHYHU EHFDXVH WKH FODVVLF FDQGOHVWLFN
 SDWWHUQV DUH W\SLFDOO\ LQWHUSUHWHG DQG JLYH WKH EHVW
 SUHGLFWLRQRQDVLQJOHWLPHLQWHUYDO
SULFH

WLPHLQWHUYDOKRXU 

  VKRRWLQJVWDU
KLJK 
 FDQGOHSDWWHUQ
 RSHQ 
 
 
FORVH 

 
EXOOLVK ORZ 
 FDQGOH EHDULVK
 FDQGOH 
 
   WLPH 

)LJ&DQGOHVWLFNFKDUW(DFKFDQGOHUHSUHVHQWVUDQJHRI 
SULFHFKDQJHZLWKLQRQHWLPHLQWHUYDO 
 EHDULVKHQJXOILQJ
 FDQGOHSDWWHUQ

$FFRUGLQJWR7D\ORUDQG$OOHQUHSRUWPRUHWKDQ
 RI /RQGRQ WUDGHUV DQG DQDO\WLFV XVH FDQGOHVWLFN
SULFHFKDUWVIRUDQDO\VLVDQGSUHGLFWLRQRIIXWXUHSRVVLEOH
SULFHDFWLRQ5HJDUGOHVVZKHWKHUWKHWHFKQLTXHLWVHOIPD\
JLYH VLJQDOV RQ SRVVLEOH SULFH UHYHUVDOV RU WUHQG
FRQWLQXDWLRQ WKH QXPEHU RI XVHUV RI FDQGOHVWLFNV DPRQJ
WUDGHUV DQG SRSXODULW\ RI WKH WRROV DEOH WR GUDZ
FDQGOHVWLFN SULFH FKDUWV PD\ IRUP FULWLFDO PDVV DEOH WR
SUHGLFWVHOIIXOILOOLQJVLJQDOV
&DQGOHVWLFNIRUPDWLRQV
*UDSKLFDOIRUPRIFDQGOHVWLFNFKDUWLVFORVHWREDUFKDUW
+RZHYHU FDQGOH VKDSHV SOXV FDQGOH ERG\ FRORXU IRUP
YDULRXV FRPSRVLWLRQV NQRZQ DPRQJ DQDO\WLFV DV
IRUPDWLRQV ,QYHVWRUV¶ KDQGERRNV HQXPHUDWH YHU\ PDQ\
YDULRXVFDQGOHVWLFNIRUPDWLRQV7KH\FDQEHFODVVLILHGE\


 KDQJLQJPDQ
 FDQGOHSDWWHUQ

)LJ([DPSOHVRIFDQGOHVWLFNIRUPDWLRQV$OOWKUHH
SDWWHUQVDQQRXQFHWUHQGUHYHUVDOIURPEXOOLVKWREHDULVK

$SDUWRIFDQGOHVWLFNFKDUWVWUDGHUVOLNHWRDVVHVFXUUHQW
VWDUH RI WKH PDUNHW RQ LQGLFDWRUV 7KHVH DUH IXQFWLRQV
ZKLFK W\SLFDOO\ WDNH SULFH RU WUDGHG YROXPH YDOXHV IURP
SUHYLRXVLQWHUYDOVDVDQDUJXPHQWDQGWKH\DUHFDOFXODWHG
DQG SORWWHG RQ RU EHORZ SULFH FKDUW ,QYHVWRUV OLNH WR
SUHGLFW SRVVLEOH IXWXUH SULFH DFWLRQ EDVHG RQ VLJQDOV
FRPLQJIURPLQGLFDWRUVWKHLUVXSHUSRVLWLRQRUUHODWLRQRI
LQGLFDWRUVDQGFXUUHQWSULFH
VLJQDOV WKH\ DQQRXQFH WUHQG FRQWLQXDWLRQ RU UHYHUVDO
OHQJWK RI FDQGOH VHTXHQFH WKDW FDQ EH LQWHUSUHWHG DV IXOO $XWRPDWHG7UDGLQJ
IRUPDWLRQ WKDW FDUULHV D VLJQDO IRU DQ LQYHVWRU -XVW WR
QDPH D IHZ IRUPDWLRQV OHW¶V VHH WKHP RQ ILJ  ,W LV 7UDGLQJ RQ )25(; PDUNHW LV DWWUDFWLYH IRU DW OHDVW D
REYLRXV WKDW WKH VKRUWHU WKH VHTXHQFH RI FDQGOHV FRXSOHRIUHDVRQV

414
415
416
QXPEHU RI WUDQVDFWLRQV ZDV   SURILW WUDGHV DQG  H[SHFWHG VWRS ORVV DQGWDNH SURILWUDQJH WR YDOXHV FORVHU
ORVVWUDGHV WRFXUUHQWPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQV
,QWULJXLQJ TXHVWLRQ LV ZKHWKHU SRVLWLYH SHUIRUPDQFH RI
WKH WLPHG VWUDWHJ\ LQ $SULO  ZDV DQ H[FHSWLRQDO &RQFOXVLRQV
LQFLGHQWRUWKHVWUDWHJ\PD\JHQHUDWHJDLQLQQH[WSHULRGV 7KHVWUDWHJ\%UHDN+RSSRVLWH+FRORXUDSSHDUHGWREH
7R YHULI\ LW WKH H[SHULPHQW ZDV SHUIRUPHG LQ WKH SHULRG DQ HIIHFWLYH SURSRVDO IRU DOJRULWKPLF WUDGLQJ EXW LW
RI$SULOWR$XJXVW5HVXOWVDUHFROOHFWHGLQWDEOH VKRZHG LWV VWUHQJWK DIWHU WLPLQJ SURFHGXUH +RZHYHU
,QLWLDO GHSRVLW LQ HYHU\ PRQWK LV HTXDO WR 86 ZKDWFDPHWRGD\OLJKWLQH[SHULPHQWVZKHQWKHVWUDWHJ\
PD[LPXP ULVN LQ D VLQJOH WUDQVDFWLRQ LV  $OO ZDV XVHG LQ SDUDOOHO RQ GHPR DQGUHDODFFRXQW VRPH RI
FRQGLWLRQV DQG YDULDEOHV ZHUH RSWLPL]HG IRU WKH EHVW UHDOWUDGHVZHUHQRWRSHQRQWKHUHDODFFRXQW7KH\ZHUH
SHUIRUPDQFHRIWKHVWUDWHJ\ IRUWKHGDWDIURP-DQXDU\WR UHMHFWHG E\ EURNHU¶V VHUYHU $IWHU D FORVHU REVHUYDWLRQ LW
0DUFK DSSHDUHGWKDWWKRVHRUGHUVFRXOGQRWEHDFFHSWHGEHFDXVH
 WKHEURNHUZLGHQHGWKHIRUNRIVWRSOHYHOVIURPWR
7DEOH3URILWJHQHUDWHGLQ$SULOWR6HSWE\WKH SLSV IRU D FRXSOH RI PLQXWHV GXULQJ G\QDPLF WUDGLQJ
VWUDWHJ\RSWLPL]HGDQGWLPHGIRUSHULRG-DQ0DU SHULRGV ZKHQ LPSRUWDQW WUDGHUV QHZV ZHUH SXEOLVKHG
0RQWK 1XPEHURI 0D[ 0D[ 1HW 7KLVSUREOHPFRXOGODWHUEHRYHUFRPHEXWIRUVRPHWLPH
WUDQVDFWLRQV SURILW ORVV SURILW LWZDVYHU\IUXVWUDWLQJ
SURILW ORVV VHTXHQFH VHTXHQFH >@ 2QHPRUH FRQFOXVLRQ ZLWK VWURQJO\ GLGDFWLFDO PHDQLQJ
,9      LV REVHUYDWLRQ WKDW FRPHV IURP WKH ODVW URZV RI WDEOH 
9      DQG WDEOH  1R PDWWHU KRZ PXFK ZDV ZRQ LQ SUHYLRXV
9,      PRQWKVDOPRVWKDOIRIWKHPRQH\ZDVORVWLQ6HSWHPEHU
9,,      ,Q RUGHU WR SURWHFW SURILWV IURP SUHYLRXV SHULRGV LW LV
9,,,      QHFHVVDU\ WR ORFDWH WKHP LQ ORZHU ULVN LQYHVWPHQW
,;      5HSRUWHG H[SHULPHQW ZDV UXQ ZLWK YHU\ KLJK ULVN
 DFFHSWDQFH ILUVW WR VKRZ SRVVLEOH KLJK SURILWV EXW
)RU FRPSDULVRQ SXUSRVH OHW¶V DQDO\]H HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI VHFRQGO\WRZDUQDERXWSRWHQWLDOORVVHV
WUDGLQJ SURFHVV SHUIRUPHG E\ WKH VDPH VWUDWHJ\ ZLWK 6WUDWHJ\ RSWLPL]DWLRQ FRVWV KRXUV RI FRPSXWDWLRQV
LGHQWLFDOYDULDEOHVHWWLQJVEXWWLPLQJFKDQJHGPRQWKO\,W +RZHYHUWKLVZRUNLVGRQHE\FRPSXWHUDQGWUDGHU¶VWDVN
PHDQV WKDW DIWHU FROOHFWLQJ KLVWRU\ RI SULFH FKDQJH LQ D LVWRSODQVXFKURXWLQHEHFDXVHLWFRQYHUWVLQWRSURILW
QH[W PRQWK WKH VWUDWHJ\ LV UHWLPHG QHZ WUDGLQJ KRXUV )XUWKHU H[SHULPHQWV DUH SODQQHG WR YDOLGDWH
DUH VHOHFWHG WR JXDUDQWHH KLJKHVW UHWXUQ LQ PRQWK HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI WKH VWUDWHJ\ %UHDN + RSSRVLWH +
SHULRG GLUHFWO\ SUHFHGLQJ WUDGLQJ PRQWK HJ VWUDWHJ\ FRORXURQRWKHUILQDQFLDOLQVWUXPHQWV
RSWLPL]HG LQ WKH VHQVH RI WLPLQJ RQ GDWD IURP )HE WR
$SULVXVHGWRWUDGHLQ0D\DQGVRRQ 5HIHUHQFHV
 :DQJ)'RQJ.'HQJ;$OJRULWKPLFWUDGLQJ
7DEOH3URILWJHQHUDWHGLQ$SULOWR6HSWE\WKH V\VWHPGHVLJQDQGDSSOLFDWLRQV)URQWLHUVRI&RPSXWHU
VWUDWHJ\RSWLPL]HGIRUSHULRG-DQ0DUDQGWLPHG 6FLHQFH LQ &KLQD 9ROXPH  ,VVXH  63 +LJKHU
IRUPRQWKSHULRGSUHFHGLQJWUDGLQJPRQWK (GXFDWLRQ3UHVVSS
0RQWK 1XPEHURI 0D[ 0D[ 1HW )HUQDQGH]-0$XJXVWR-&6HHSROG50DGULG10
WUDQVDFWLRQV SURILW ORVV SURILW  :K\ 7UDGHUV 1HHG $PELHQW ,QWHOOLJHQFH LQ
SURILW ORVV VHTXHQFH VHTXHQFH >@ $XJXVWR -& &RUFKDGR -0 1RYDLV 3 $QDOLGH &
,9      $PELHQW ,QWHOOLJHQFH DQG )XWXUH 7UHQGV,QWHUQDWLRQDO
9      6\PSRVLXP RQ $PELHQW ,QWHOOLJHQFH ,6$P, 
9,      $GYDQFHV LQ 6RIW &RPSXWLQJ 6SULQJHU %HUOLQ
9,,      +HLGHOEHUJSS
9,,,      .LQJ052VOHU&5LPH')RUHLJQ([FKDQJH
,;      0DUNHW6WUXFWXUH3OD\HUVDQG(YROXWLRQ1RUJHV%DQN
 :RUNLQJ 3DSHU 1R  $YDLODEOH DW 6651
,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ PD[LPXP OHQJWK RI FRQVHFXWLYH SURILW KWWSVVUQFRPDEVWUDFW  RU
DQG ORVV VHTXHQFH LV SURYLGHG EHFDXVH LW PD\ KHOS D KWWSG[GRLRUJVVUQ
WUDGHU WR UHGXFH ULVN LQ VLQJOH WUDQVDFWLRQ SOD\ VPDOOHU 1LVRQ 6  -DSDQHVH &DQGOHVWLFN &KDUWLQJ
YROXPH ZKHQ D ZLQQLQJ VHTXHQFH LV XQH[SHFWHGO\ ORQJ 7HFKQLTXHVQGHG1HZ<RUN3HQJXLQ3XWQDP,QF
DQGYLFHYHUVD5HODWLYHO\ZHDNSURILWREVHUYHGLQWDEOH 6WHHQEDUJHU%17UDGLQJ3V\FKRORJ\)URP
LQ0D\DQG-XQHZKHQFRPSDUHGWRUHVXOWVIURPWDEOH %HVW3UDFWLFHVWR%HVW3URFHVVHV:LOH\7UDGLQJ
PD\ EH UHVXOW RI 6XPPHU WLPH DGMXVWPHQW ZKLFK WDNHV 7D\ORU - $OOHQ +  7KH 8VH RI 7HFKQLFDO
SODFHLQWKHHQGRI0DUFKDQGKDSSHQHGLQWKHPLGGOHRI $QDO\VLV LQ )RUHLJQ ([FKDQJH 0DUNHW -RXUQDO RI
VWUDWHJ\RSWLPL]LQJGDWDVHW7LPHFKDQJHLVQRWSUDFWLFHG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO0RQH\DQG)LQDQFH9ROS
ZRUOGZLGH DQG LW LV D SRWHQWLDO KLQW WR H[SODLQ VHULRXV 
GLIIHUHQFHV LQ HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI VWUDWHJ\ WLPHG IRU SHULRG 
-DQ0DUDQGIRUSHULRGVKDYLQJ0DUFKWLPHDGMXVWPHQW
LQWKHPLGGOH
*RRG LPSURYHPHQW RI WKH VWUDWHJ\ SHUIRUPDQFH ZDV
DFKLHYHGZKHQOLVWRIPRQWKO\RSWLPL]HGSDUDPHWHUVZDV
H[WHQGHG E\ DWU6/ DQG DWU73 ,W DOORZHG WR DGMXVW

417