ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉ

GEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

eqspertis azri

Tornike TurmaniZe

saqarTvelo: buferi Tu Crdiloatlantikuri

aliansis wevri?

35

2015
 publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli
Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

redaqtori: rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da

saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis
gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri,
maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso

urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2015 weli

ISSN 1512-4835
ISBN 978-9941-0-7590-2
 ruseTis mier 2014 wlis martSi ganxorcielebulma
yirimis aneqsiam da mimdinare samxedro intervenciam ukraina­
Si kidev erTxel ganaaxla diskusia im postsabWoTa qveynebis
momavlis Sesaxeb, romlebic ruseTsa da dasavleTs (nato-ev­
rokavSirs) Soris mdebareoben. gadarCebian Tu ara es qvey­
nebi, rogorc saerTaSoriso sistemis suverenuli da da­
moukidebeli erTeulebi? arian Tu ara isini Tavisufalni,
airCion ganviTarebis sakuTari gza da sagareo-politikuri
kursi? SeZleben Tu ara isini im aliansebsa da regionul
gaerTianebebSi gawevrianebas, romlebiskenac miiltvian? ra
rols Seasruleben isini evropul da/an evraziul regionul
usafrTxoebaSi axlo momavalSi? am kiTxvebze pasuxebis gace­
ma advili ar aris da sakmaod detalur msjelobas moiTxovs.
Tumca, vfiqrob, am mxriv sasargeblo iqneba saqarTvelos
maga­liTis ganxilva, gansakuTrebiT ukrainaSi bolo dros gan­
viTarebuli movlenebidan miRebuli gakveTilebis gaTvalis­
winebiT, rac, Tavis mxriv, im problemebisa da gamowvevebis
ukeT gagebaSi dagvexmareba, romelTa winaSec dRes civi omis
Semdgomi evropuli usafrTxoebis arqiteqtura dgas.
qvemoT mokled mimovixilav postsabWoTa sivrcis ev­
ropul nawilSi amJamad arsebul geopolitikur viTarebasa
da ruseTis mier ukrainis sazRvrebis Zaladobrivi gziT Secv­
lis mcdelobis Sedegebs evrokavSiris aRmosavleT samezob­
los qveynebisTvis (aRmosavleT partniorobis qveynebis­Tvis,
rogorebicaa: belarusi, ukraina, moldova, saqarTvelo,
somxeTi da azerbaijani), aseve vimsjeleb saqarTvelos am­
Jamindel saerTaSoriso statussa da natoSi gawevrianebis
pers­peqtivebze.

geopolitikuri viTareba evropaSi, natosa da evrokav-

Siris aRmosavleTiT

civi omis dasasruls sabWoTa kavSirisa da varSavis

xelSekrulebis organizaciis daSlam ruseTsa da dasavleTs
(nato-evrokavSirs) Soris SedarebiT susti qveynebisgan Semd­
gari Zalis vakuumi warmoqmna. istoria gviCvenebs, rom saer­
TaSoriso sistemaSi Zalis or an met poluss Soris amgvari
vakuumis _ potenciuri buferuli zonis _ gaCenas Sedegad
SeiZleba mohyves: 1) erT-erTi Zlieri saxelmwifos an alian­
sis mier maT Soris mdebare geopolitikur sivrceSi eqspansia

3
 an orive maTganis mier aRniSnuli sivrcis gavlenis sfero­
ebad dayofa an 2) Zalis polusebis mier maT Soris arsebu­
li geopolitikuri sivrcis buferul zonad aRiareba da iq
ganlagebuli qveynebisTvis _ am ukanasknelTa surviliT an,
ufro xSirad, maTi survilis sawinaaRmdegod _ neitraluri
an miumxrobeli statusis miniWeba, anu maTi „neitralizacia“.
marTalia, civi omis periodSi evropa am orive Sedegis ele­
mentebs Seicavda (meore msoflio omis Semdeg dasavleT ev­
ropis bevri saxelmwifo natoSi gawevrianda, aRmosavleT
evropis qveynebis umravlesoba _ varSavis xelSekrulebis
organizaciaSi, xolo neitraluri Sveicaria, avstria, Svede­
Ti, fineTi da miumxrobeli iugoslavia am or bloks Soris
buferebis rols asrulebdnen), ufro adreuli da gviandeli
istoriuli faqtebis umetesoba adasturebs, rom msgavs situ­
aciebSi Zlieri saxelmwifoebi ufro xSirad pirvel Sedegs
irCeven, vidre meores, anu amjobineben, sakuTari sazRv­rebi
an gavlenis sferoebi gaafarTovon, vidre maT Soris buf­
eruli zona SeinarCunon. aseT sivrceSi neitraluri bufer­
uli sa­xelmwifoebi mxolod Zalauflebis xisti regionuli
balansis SemTxvevaSi Cndeba, rodesac Zlieri saxelmwifoebi
da aliansebi maT Soris mdebare geopolitikuri vakuumis
gayo­faze an erTmaneTisTvis daTmobaze ver Tanxmdebian. amas­
Tan, unda aRiniSnos, rom garigebebi saxelmwifoTa buferul
statusTan dakavSirebiT metwilad moklevadiania, radgan
amgvari qveynebis neitraliteti an, sulac, suvereniteti,
safrTxis winaSe dgeba rogorc ki ZalTa regionuli an glo­
baluri balansi irRveva da erT-erTi Zlieri saxelmwifo an
aliansi status-kvos Secvlas da sakuTari gavlenis sferos
gafarToebas gadawyvets.1
is, rac civi omis dasrulebis Semdeg aRmosavleT ev­
ropasa da, nawilobriv, postsabWoTa sivrceSi moxda, Zlieri
saxelmwifoebis qcevis am modelis SesaniSnavi ilustraciaa.
erTi mxriv, 1990-iani wlebis Sua xanebidan aSS-is gavlenis
sfero, nato da evrokavSiri aRmosavleTiT gafarTovda:
varSavis paqtis yofili wevrebidan poloneTi, ungreTi, Cexe­
Ti, slovakeTi, bulgareTi, rumineTi da albaneTi, iugo­
slaviis yofili respublikebidan _ slovenia da xorvatia,
1 buferuli saxelmwifoebis Sesaxeb damatebiTi msjelobisTvis ix.:
Tornike TurmaniZe, buferuli saxelmwifoebi (Tbilisi: bTkk-politikis
kvlevis jgufi, meore gamocema, 2011) da Tornike Turmanidze, Buffer States:
Power Policies, Foreign Policies and Concepts (New York: Nova Science Publishers, 2009)

4
sabWoTa kavSiris yofili respublikebidan _ litva, latvia
da estoneTi Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis wevrebi gaxdnen,
maTi umravlesoba aseve evrokavSirSi gaerTianda, civi omis­
droindeli neitraluri qveynebi _ avstria, SvedeTi da fi­
neTi _ ki natoSi ar Sesulan, magram evrokavSirSi gawevriand­
nen. meore mxriv, ruseTi amave periodidan dRemde cdilobs
yofili sabWoTa respublikebis Tavisi gavlenis sferoSi dab­
runebas maTi iseT regionul gaerTianebebSi CarTviT, rogo­
rebicaa damoukidebel saxelmwifoTa Tanamegobroba (dsT),
koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis organizacia da
axaldafuZnebuli evraziis ekonomikuri kavSiri, romelmac
2015 wlidan evraziuli sabaJo kavSiri da evraziuli eko­
nomikuri sazogadoeba Secvala. moskovma aRmosavleT part­
niorobis wevri qveynebidan, romlebic ruseTsa da nato-ev­
rokavSirs Soris mdebareoben (belarusi, ukraina, moldova,
saqarTvelo, somxeTi da azerbaijani), evraziis ekonomi­
kur kavSirSi jerjerobiT mxolod belarusisa da somxeTis
gawev­rianeba SeZlo (aseve, centraluri aziidan yazaxeTisa,
romelsac, savaraudod, male yirgizeTic daemateba). yofil
sabWoTa respublikebze kontrolis aRdgenisa da dasavleT­
Tan maTi daaxloebis Sesaferxeblad ruseTi 1991 wlidan
mTel rig ekonomikur, politikur da samxedro instru­
mentebs iyenebs, romelTagan gansakuTrebiT aRsaniSnavia am
qveynebSi rusuli samxedro bazebisa da „samSvidobo Zalebis~
ganTavseba, eTnikuri mravalferovnebiT manipulireba, sepa­
ratizmis waxaliseba, eTnikuri konfliqtebis gaRviveba da
Ria samxedro intervenciebis ganxorcieleba (saqarTveloSi
2008 wlis agvistoSi da ukrainaSi 2014 wlis Tebervlidan),
maTi teritoriis nawilis okupacia (afxazeTis, cxinvalis
regionis/`samxreT oseTis“, yirimis, doneckisa da luganskis
regionebis) da aneqsi­ac ki (yirimis).
samwuxarod, xSirad gvesmis mcdari da damabneveli
argumenti, TiTqos natosa da evrokavSiris aRmosavleTiT
gafarToeba civi omis dasrulebis Semdgom aRmosavleT ev­
ropasa da postsabWoTa sivrceSi warmoqmnil Zalis vakuumSi
dasavleTis calmxrivi eqspansia iyo.2 sinamdvileSi, ruseT­
ic dakavebuli iyo dasavleTisken ara marto Tavisi gavle­
nis sferos, aramed saxelmwifo sazRvrebis gafarToebiT,
2 magaliTad, ix.: John J. Mearsheimer, “Why the Ukraine Crisis is the West’s Fault,”
Foreign Affairs, September-October 2014, www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141769/
john-j-mearsheimer/why-the-ukraine-crisis-is-the-wests-fault

5
 rac mcire xnis win yirimis aneqsiis magaliTmac aCvena. gar­
da amisa, xsenebul or eqspansias Soris Zireuli gansxvaveba
aris is (rasac am argumentis momxre politikosebi da mkv­
levrebi ugulebelyofen), rom sabWoTa kavSirisa da social­
isturi blokis yofilma qveynebma, romlebic natosa da ev­
rokavSirSi gaerTiandnen, es nabiji sakuTari survilisa da
maTi sazogadoebebis Tavisufali arCevanis safuZvelze ga­
dadges, xolo sabWoTa kavSiris yofilma qveynebma, romlebic
ruseTis liderobiT Seqmnil iseT regionul organizaciebSi
gawev­riandnen, rogorebicaa dsT, koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis
xelSekrulebis organizacia da evraziis ekonomikuri kavSi­
ri, did albaTobiT, es moskovis mxridan zewolisa da Santa­
Jis Sedegad gaakeTes3 (miuxedavad imisa, rom am saxelmwifoTa
mTavrobebi, SesaZloa, amas sajarod ar aRiarebdnen). metic,
zogierT postsabWoTa qveyanaSi, romelic jerjerobiT arc
erT zemoxsenebul alianssa Tu regionul gaerTianebaSi ar
Sesula, kerZod, saqarTvelosa da ukrainaSi, ruseTma srul­
masStabiani omebi wamoiwyo, maTi suverenuli teritoriis
samxedro okupacia da aneqsiac ki moaxdina, raTa, saboloo
jamSi, am qveynebis evrokavSirsa da natoSi integracias xeli
SeuSalos da kvlav Tavis orbitaSi daabrunos.
amrigad, miuxedavad imisa, rom ruseTma da dasav­
leTma, gansxvavebul garemoebebSi, aRmosavleT evropasa
da postsabWoTa sivrceSi warmoqmnili civi omisSemdgomi
geopolitikuri vakuumis didi nawili STanTqes, 2015 wlis
mdgo­mareobiT, potenciuri buferuli zona maT Soris mainc
arsebobs da ukrainas, moldovas, saqarTvelosa da azerbai­
jans moicavs. buferuli saxelmwifos statusi, rogorc Cans,
misaRebia moldovisa da azerbaijanisTvis. moldovam, imis
SiSiT, rom moskovs dnestrispireTSi gayinuli konfliqtis
gaaqtiureba ZaluZs, 1994 wels mudmivi neitraliteti gamo­
acxada. Tumca, kiSiniovma evrokavSirTan urTierTobebi ga­
naviTara da 2014 wels briuselTan asocirebis xelSekrule­
bas moawera xeli, ramac ruseTis mTavroba mainc gaaRiziana
da naklebad savaraudoa, rom moskovi moldovis evrokav­
SirSi integracias Seeguos. azerbaijani, romelsac ruseTsa
da nato-evrokavSirs Soris sivrceSi erTgvari periferiuli
mdebareoba aqvs da amavdroulad esmis, rom ruseTs mTiani

3 ase moxda saqarTvelos SemTxvevaSi, romelic ruseTma 1993 wels, afxa­

zeTSi omis Sedegad, aiZula dsT-Si gawevrianebuliyo.

6
yarabaRis gamo somxeTTan mis dapirispirebaze gadamwyveti
gavlenis moxdena SeuZlia, jerjerobiT Tavs aridebs ruseT­
sa da dasavleTs (koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis
organizacia-evraziis ekonomikur kavSirsa da nato-evrokav­
Sirs) Soris mkafio arCevanis gakeTebas. Tumca, moldova da
azerbaijani, ukrainasa da saqarTvelosTan erTad, geopoli­
tikur gaurkvevlobaSi garkveulwilad am ori ukanaskneli
qveynis ruseTTan mougvarebeli urTierTobebis gamo imyo­
febian. dReisaTvis saqarTvelos da ukrainas naTlad aqvT
gamoxatuli TavianTi survili, dauaxlovdnen dasavleTs da,
saboloo jamSi, misi ganuyofeli nawilebi gaxdnen: 2014 wels
saqarTvelom da ukrainam evrokavSirTan asocirebis xelSek­
rulebebi gaaformes; 2008 wels maT natos buqarestis samitze
miiRes dapireba, rom momavalSi aliansis wevrebi gaxdebian;
2011 wels saqarTvelo „natos aspirant qveynad“ dasaxelda;
sul axlaxan ki ukrainis mTavrobam qveynis natoSi gawevri­
anebaze ganacxadi kvlav gaakeTa.4 ruseTi ki saqarTvelosa da
ukrainis dasavleTisken svlas aferxebs, laxavs maT suvereni­
tets, teritoriul mTlianobas, sazRvrebis urRvevobas da
inarCunebs efeqtian kontrols am qveynebis separatistul,
okupirebul an aneqsirebul teritoriebze, rogorebicaa
afxazeTi, cxinvalis regioni/“samxreT oseTi“, yirimi, aseve
nawilobriv doneckisa da luganskis regionebi, sadac amJamad
omia gaCaRebuli.
ra eliT am qveynebs? isini iqnebian buferuli saxelm­
wifoebi, Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis wevrebi Tu ruseTis
satelitebi? am rTuli sakiTxis ramdenime SesaZlo gadawyve­
ta arsebobs, romelTagan zogierTi, samwuxarod, am qveynebis
amJamindel sagareo-politikur miznebs ar Seesabameba.

ruseTisa da dasavleTis interesebi regionSi

ruseTi revizionistuli saxelmwifoa. mas postsabWo­

Ta sivrceSi arsebuli status-kvo aSkarad ar akmayofilebs
da misi Secvla surs. gansakuTrebiT mas Semdeg, rac ruse­
Tis prezidenti vladimer putini gaxda, romelmac sabWoTa
kavSiris daSlas me-20 saukunis udidesi „geopolitikuri

4 “Ukrainian President Signs Law Allowing NATO Membership Bid,” Radio Free Europe/
Radio Liberty, 18.01.2015, www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-poroshenko-signs-law-al-
lowing-nato-bid/26767916.html (18.01.2015)

7
 katastrofa“ uwoda,5 moskovi cdilobs 12 yofili sabWoTa
respublika sakuTar kontrols nebismier fasad dauqvemde­
baros (gamonaklisi, savaraudod, baltiispireTis qveynebia,
romlebmac, sabednierod, 2004 wels natosa da evrokavSirSi
gawevrianebiT ruseTs Tavi daaRwies). aSkaraa, rom postsab­
WoTa sivrcesTan mimarTebaSi ruseTis mTavar sagareo-poli­
tikur mizans sabWoTa kavSiris (an, sulac, ruseTis imperiis)
Tanamedrove formiT aRdgena warmoadgens.
sainteresoa, rom ruseTi rogorc natos, ise evrokav­
Sirs sakuTari „privilegirebuli interesebis sferosTvis“6
safrTxed aRiqvams. is dasavleli komentatorebi, romle­
bic amtkiceben, rom kremls mxolod natosa da evrokavSiris
gafarToeba aSfoTebs, cdebian, rasac ukrainis magaliTi
naTlad adasturebs: kremlma warmatebiT moaxdina zewola
ukrainis yofil xelisuflebaze, raTa mas evrokavSirTan aso­
cirebis xelSekruleba ar gaeformebina, ramac evromaidani
gamoiwvia da 2014 wlis TebervalSi prezident viqtor ianu­
koviCis gadayenebiT dasrulda; ukrainis natoSi gawevriane­
ba arc ianukoviCis mTavrobis dRis wesrigSi idga, romelic
kremlis moTxovnebs dahyva da 2010 wels ukraina blokgareSe
saxelmwifod gamoacxada, da arc gardamavali mTavrobisa,
romelmac evromaidanis revoluciis Semdeg aiRo Zalaufle­
ba xelSi; miuxedavad amisa, 2014 wlis TebervalSi ruseTma
ukrainaSi samxedro intervencia daiwyo da jer yirimi, Semdeg
ki aRmosavleT ukrainis nawili daipyro, raTa ukrainis dasav­
leTTan, kerZod ki, evrokavSirTan daaxloeba SeeCerebina.
2008 wlis agvistos ruseT-saqarTvelos omi da ruse­
Tis mier afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis/“samxreT oseTis“
okupacia,7 aseve, 2014 wlis martSi ruseTis mier yirimis aneq­
sia da aRmosavleT ukrainaSi amJamad mimdinare saomari mo­
qmedebebi cxadyofs, rom ruseTi ar erideba da Semdgomac
gaagrZelebs Tavis farglebs gareT samxedro Zalis gamoy­
5 vladimer putinis wliuri mimarTva ruseTis federalur krebas,
25.05.2005; www.archive.kremlin.ru/eng/speeches/2005/04/25/2031_type70029type
82912_87086.shtml
6 es fraza 2008 wlis agvistoSi ruseTis maSindelma prezidentma dimitri
medvedevma warmoTqva, www.news.kremlin.ru/transcripts/1294, www.news.krem-
lin.ru/transcripts/2092 (18.01.2015)
7 2008 wels ruseTis mier saqarTvelos winaaRmdeg ganxorcielebuli
agresiis qronologia, saqarTvelos mTavroba, www.mfa.gov.ge/index.php?
lang_id=GEO&sec_id=556 (18.01.2015)

8
enebas imisaTvis, rom ssrk-is yofil respublikebze kontr­
oli aRidginos. roca ki am qveynebis xelisuflebebi uars
ityvian moskovis moTxovnebis Sesrulebaze maTi aSS-sTan,
natosa da/an evrokavSirTan urTierTobebis sakiTxebTan da­
kavSirebiT, ruseTi am saxelmwifoebis destabilizacias moax­
dens, daipyrobs maT teritoriebs, SesaZloa, maTi aneqsiac
ki moaxdinos, ris gasamarTlebladac periodulad kosovos
magaliTs moixmobs da amgvari agresiuli qmedebebiT or
sagareo-politikur mizans erTdroulad miaRwevs: 1) gaafar­
Toebs Tavis saxelmwifo sazRvrebs an „Tavdacvis perimetrs“
da 2) dazaralebul qveynebs dasavleTisTvis aramimzidvels
gaxdis, SeaCerebs maT natosa da evrokavSirSi integracias,
anu moaxdens maT „neitralizacias“, raTa Semdgom isini sa­
kuTar satelitebad gadaaqcios. sxva sityvebiT rom vTqvaT,
am momentisTvis ruseTi cdilobs SeuTanxmdes dasavleTs
saqarT­velosa da ukrainis (iseve, rogorc moldovisa da
azerbaijanis) buferul statusze. Tumca, es mxolod droe­
biTi interesia ruseTisTvis. misi saboloo mizani am saxelm­
wifoTa kvlav sakuTari gavlenis sferoSi moqcevaa.
ruseTisgan gansxvavebiT, dasavleTi pativs scems
aRmosavleT partniorobis zemoxsenebuli qveynebis Tavi­
sufal arCevans, gaataron natosa da evrokavSirSi gawevri­
anebis sagareo-politikuri kursi. Tumca, amave dros, ruse­
Tis mxridan viTarebis samxedro gziT Semdgomi eskalaciis
SiSma, rogorc Cans, dasavleTs aRmosavleTiT gafarToebis
gagrZelebis enTuziazmi gaunela. dasavleTs, pirvel rigSi,
surs, es qveynebi suverenul, stabilur, demokratiul da gan­
viTarebul saxelmwifoebad ixilos, zogierTi maTgani natosa
da evrokavSiris wevradac ki, im pirobiT, rom isini Sesaba­
mis kriteriumebs daakmayofileben. amavdroulad, dasavleTs
imedi aqvs, rom am qveynebs moskovTan normaluri urTier­
Tobebi SeiZleba hqondeT da amitom am sakiTxze ruseTTan
saerTo enis gamonaxvas cdilobs.
rogorc vxedavT, regionis or mTavar moTamaSes gansx­
vavebuli da urTierTsawinaaRmdego interesebi aqvT. aSS-is,
natosa da evrokavSiris xelmZRvanelobis araerTi mcdeloba,
ruseTis xelisuflebasTan urTierTobebi geopolitikuri
metoqeobidan TanamSromlobaSi gadaeyvanaT, warumatebeli
aRmoCnda imis gamo, rom ruseTis prezidenti vladimer pu­
tini msoflios mxolod da mxolod Zalis politikis WrilSi
xedavs. magaliTad, 2008 wlis agvistos ruseT-saqarTvelos

9
 omis Semdeg dasavleTma maleve aRadgina moskovTan normalu­
ri urTierTobebi, risi naTeli gamoxatulebac aSS-is prezi­
dent barak obamas administraciis „gadatvirTvis“ politika
iyo. Tumca, man ver Seakava ruseTis Zaladobrivi qmedebebi
samezobloSi. dResac arsebobs imis saSiSroeba, rom amgvari
Secdoma ganmeordes da sanqciebi, romlebic dasavleTma ru­
seTs ukrainaSi samxedro intervenciis gamo dauwesa, gauqm­
des. yovel SemTxvevaSi, am sakiTxze diskusia evrokavSiris
SigniT dawyebulia.8
samwuxarod, zogierTi dasavleli realisti xSirad
saubrobs ruseTis „geopolitikuri saWiroebebis“ gaTvalis­
winebaze da acxadebs, rom erTaderTi, rac ruseTs surs, es
aris neitraluri buferuli zona mis dasavleTiT, axali
„sani­tariuli kordoni“, romelic mas natosa da evrokav­
Sirisgan daicavs da rom ruseTis es moTxovnebi unda dak­
mayofildes iseTi qveynebis Tavisufali nebis xarjze, ro­
gorebic arian saqarTvelo, ukraina da moldova. es mcdari
mosazrebaa, radgan ruseTis realuri geopolitikuri in­
teresi mis sazRv­rebTan satelitebis da ara buferebis arse­
bobaa. am qveynebisTvis natosa da evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis
Sansze uaris Tqma ki maTi ruseTis orbitaSi iZulebiT dab­
runebisTvis xelis Sewyobas niSnavs.

saqarTvelos geopolitikuri roli da perspeqtivebi

saqarTvelo ukve didi xania geopolitikuri gaurkvev­

lobis/tranziciis periodSi imyofeba, vinaidan, erTi mxriv,
ruseTi yvelanairad cdilobs is Tavis satelitad (kvazi­
buferad9) aqcios da dsT-Si, koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis
xelSekrulebis organizaciasa da evraziis ekonomikur kav­
SirSi Seiyvanos an, amis droebiT alternativad, saqarTvelos
neitralur, buferul statusze Tanxmdeba, Tumca, rusuli
jarebis saqarTvelos okupirebuli teritoriebidan gay­
vanis gareSe, raTa uaxloes xelsayrel viTarebas daelodos,
roca am qveynis Tavis satelitad gadaqcevas SeZlebs. meore
mxriv, saqarTvelos arc ruseTis satelitad (kvazibuferad)

8 “Mogherini Suggests Détente with Russia,” EurActiv, 14.01.2015, www.euractiv.com/

sections/global-europe/mogherini-suggests-detente-russia-311288 (18.01.2015)
9 buferuli mdebareobis mqone, magram romelime aliansis wevri, ara­
neitraluri saxelmwifo.

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da arc ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris buferad yofna surs.
saqarTvelos gancxadebuli sagareo-politikuri priori­
teti Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis wevrad (natos kvazi­
buferad) gaxdoma da, aseve, evrokavSirSi Sesvlaa. Tumca,
2008 wlis agvistos ruseT-saqarTvelos omis Semdeg ruseTis
mier saqarTvelos teritoriebis _ afxazeTisa da cxinvalis
regionis/“samxreT oseTis“ _ samxedro okupacia seriozuli
barieria rogorc saqarTvelos natoSi integraciisTvis, aseve
misi buferuli statusisTvis.
gavimeoreb Cems adre gamoTqmul mosazrebas,10 rom, hi­
poTeturad, saqarTvelosTvis xuTi SesaZlo geopolitikuri
scenari arsebobs. saqarTvelos, rogorc Zalis or metoqe
poluss _ ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris _ mdebare, patara/
sust, potenciurad buferul saxelmwifos, Teoriuli Tval­
sazrisiT, regionSi xuTi sxvadasxva geopolitikuri rolis
Sesruleba SeuZlia. esenia:
1. buferi ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris _ Tu ruseTi af­
xazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis/`samxreT oseTis“ samx­
edro okupacias daasrulebs an ruseTis saokupacio
Zalebi saerTaSoriso samSvidobo kontingentiT Canacvl­
deba, xolo saqarTvelo neitraluri saxelmwifo gaxdeba
da natosa da evrokavSirisken swrafvaze uars ityvis. am
scenaris erT-erTi hipoTeturi variacia SeiZleba iyos
neitralu­ri saqarTvelo, romelic ar aris natos wevri,
magram gaerTianebulia evrokavSirSi. am SemTxvevaSi saqa­
rTvelo gaxdeba buferuli saxelmwifo ruseTsa da natos
Soris. Tumca, ukrainaSi ruseTis bolodroindeli qmede­
bebiT Tu vimsjelebT, naklebad savaraudoa, rom moskovi
aseT garigebas dasTanxmdes.
2. Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis wevri (natos kvazibuferi)
_ Tu ruseTi afxazeTisa da cxinvalis regionis/`samxreT
oseTis“ samxedro okupacias daasrulebs an iq ganTavsebu­
li ruseTis saokupacio Zalebi saerTaSoriso-samSvidobo
kontingentiT Seicvleba, xolo saqarTvelo Crdiloat­
lantikuri aliansis (da, savaraudod, aseve evrokavSiris)
wevri gaxdeba.
10 Tornike TurmaniZe, buferuli saxelmwifoebi (Tbilisi: bTkk-politikis
kvlevis jgufi, meore gamocema, 2011), gv. 39-40 da Tornike Turmanidze, Buffer
States: Power Policies, Foreign Policies and Concepts (New York: Nova Science Publish-
ers, 2009), gv. 19-20.

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 3. ruseTis sateliti (ruseTis kvazibuferi) _ Tu saqarT­
velo daTanxmdeba da kanonierad aRiarebs ruse­
Tis samxedro bazebis yofnas afxazeTsa da cxinvalis
regionSi/`samxreT oseTSi“, uars ityvis natosa da evro­
kavSirSi gawevrianebis sagareo-politikur kursze, ga­
moacxadebs neitralitets da/an Semdgom gaerTiandeba
dsT-Si, koleqtiuri usafrTxoebis xelSekrulebis orga­
nizaciasa da evraziis ekonomikur kavSirSi.
4. feTqebadsaSiSi zona _ Tu ruseTis saokupacio armia af­
xazeTsa da cxinvalis regions/`samxreT oseTs“ ar dato­
vebs da arc saerTaSoriso samSvidobo misiiT Canacvl­deba,
xolo saqarTvelo, amavdroulad, natos da/an evrokav­
Siris wevri gaxdeba. am SemTxvevaSi, saqarTvelo am or­
ganizaciebSi de iure saerTaSoriso sazogadoebis mier
aRiarebuli sazRvrebiT Seva, magram de faqto ruseTsa
da dasavleTs Soris, ruseTis samxedro okupaciis xazebis
gaswvriv, gavlenis sferoebad gaiyofa.
5. xidi ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris _ Tu metoqeoba ru­
seTsa da aSS-nato-evrokavSirs Soris namdvili TanamS­
romlobiTa da megobrobiT Seicvleba, ruseTi afxaze­
Tisa da cxinvalis regionis/“samxreT oseTis“ okupacias
Sewyvets, saqarTvelo teritoriul mTlianobas aRidgens,
ruseTs safrTxed aRar aRiqvams da ganaviTarebs ekonomi­
kur, politikur da samxedro kavSirebs ruseTTanac da
dasavleTTanac, gawevriandeba natoSi an evrokavSirSi, an
orive am organizaciaSi, aseve, SesaZloa, sxva regionul
gaerTianebebSic. es idealuri scenaria, romelSic Zalis
politika regionul TanamSromlobad gardaiqmneba, ro­
gorc es meore msoflio omis Semdeg dasavleT evropaSi
moxda (rodesac belgiam, niderlandebma da luqsemburg­
ma _ warsulSi buferulma saxelmwifoebma _ es problema
ukan moitoves, radgan xangrZlivi istoriuli dapirispi­
reba safrangeTs, germaniasa da gaerTianebul samefos So­
ris dasrulda).
mexuTe scenari (xidi ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris),
romelic, SesaZloa, pirveli (buferuli saxelmwifo), meore
(natos wevri) da, agreTve, meoTxe (feTqebadsaSiSi zona) sce­
naris gagrZeleba iyos, rasakvirvelia, saukeTesoa saqarT­
velosTvis. Tumca, is am momentisTvis utopiaa, radgan

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postsabWoTa sivrcisadmi moskovis imperialisturi midgoma
naklebad savaraudoa, rom uaxloes momavalSi Seicvalos.
aSkaraa, rom saqarTvelosTan mimarTebaSi ruseTi upirate­
sobas mesame scenars (ruseTis sateliti) aniWebs, Tumca am
miznis miRwevis saSualebad pirvel scenarsac (buferuli
saxelmwifo) ganixilavs, oRond odnav gansxvavebuli pirobe­
biT: saqarTvelos buferul saxelmwifod gadaqceva ruseTs
sakuTari SeiaraRebuli Zalebisa da samxedro bazebis saqa­
rTvelos okupirebuli regionebidan gayvanis gareSe surs.
Tumca qveyana, romlis teritoriac ucxo saxelmwifos mier
aris okupirebuli, ver CaiTvleba neitralur an miumxro­
bel saxelm­wifod, Tu is am teritoriebs damoukidebel sax­
elmwifoebad an sxva saxelmwifos Semadgenel nawilebad ar
aRiarebs. amas ki, darwmunebuli var, saqarTvelos arc erTi
mTavroba ar gaakeTebs. amrigad, ruseTis eqspansionisturi
ambiciebis gaTvaliswinebiT, saqarTvelosTvis pirveli (bufe­
ruli saxelmwifo) da mesame (ruseTis sateliti) scenarebi
Tanabrad saxifaToa.
miuxedavad imisa, rom saqarTvelo meore scenars (na­
tos wevri) aniWebs upiratesobas, misi amJamindeli saerTa­
Soriso mdgomareoba, samwuxarod, ufro meoTxe scenarTanaa
(feTqebadsaSiSi zona) axlos, rac saqarTvelosTvis (iseve,
rogorc ukrainisa da moldovisTvis), zogadad, kargi ar aris,
magram, arsebuli viTarebis gaTvaliswinebiT, arc yvelaze
cudi perspeqtivaa. gavbedav da imasac vityvi, rom dReisaT­
vis es scenari misaRebi unda iyos saqarTvelosTvis, radgan
is gulisxmobs nato-evrokavSiris usafrTxoebis garantiebs
saqarTvelos saxelmwifoebroebisa da suverenitetisTvis im
teritoriis farglebSi, romelsac qveynis xelisufleba amJa­
mad akontrolebs da, aseve, zrdis Tbilisis samomavlo San­
sebs, mSvidobianad moaxdinos okupirebuli teritoriebisa da
iq mcxovrebi xalxis reintegracia.
amrigad, saqarTvelo dRes arc buferuli saxelmwi­
foa da arc Crdiloatlantikuri aliansis wevri/mokavSire
saxelmwifo. miuxedavad imisa, rom is am ukanaskneli alter­
nativisken miiswrafvis, ruseTsa da dasavleTs Soris meto­
qeoba da uTanxmoeba maT Soris mdebare postsabWoTa sivrcis
bedTan dakavSirebiT saqarTvelos am sagareo-politikuri
miznis miRwevaSi xels uSlis. Tumca, bevri ram mainc saqarT­
velos dasavleTTan integraciis mtkice Zalisxmevaze iqneba
damokidebuli.

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 daskvna: rekomendaciebi sagareo politikisTvis da
miRebuli gakveTilebi

mTavari, rac saqarTvelom (2012 wlis oqtombridan

qveynis saTaveSi mosulma „qarTuli ocnebis“ xelisuflebam)
ukrainis bolodroindeli gamocdilebidan unda iswavlos
aris is, rom ruseTis moTxovnebis Sesruleba da neitral­
uri an blokgareSe qveynis statusze daTanxmeba, ruseTsa da
dasavleTs Soris dabalansebis politikis gatareba im imediT,
rom ruseTi Tavs dagvanebebs, absoluturad azrs moklebu­
lia. zustad ase moiqca ukraina 2010 wels, rodesac maSin­
deli prezidentis viqtor ianukoviCis TaosnobiT ara marto
blokgareSe saxelmwifod gamocxadda, aramed ruseTis Savi
zRvis samxedro flots yirimSi sevastopolis portis ijaris
vadac ki gaugrZela,11 magram vladimer putinma ukrainis xe­
lisuflebas sul ufro met daTmobaze wasvla, maT Soris, ev­
rokavSirTan asocirebis xelSekrulebis xelmoweraze uaris
Tqma mosTxova. sabolo jamSi, ukrainis blokgareSe statusma
ruseTis mier am qveynis winaaRmdeg samxedro agresiis wamow­
yebas xeli ver SeuSala.
amitom erTaderTi SesaZlo dacva saqarTvelosTvis
(iseve, rogorc ukrainisa da moldovisTvis) aris dasavleT­
Tan integraciis procesis gagrZeleba, rogorc natoSi, ise
evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis mizniT. amgvari sagareo poli­
tika zrdis imis albaTobas, rom ruseTis mier am qveynebis
winaaRmdeg samxedro agresiis ganxorcielebis/ganaxlebis
SemTxvevaSi, isini dasavleTisgan ara marto politikur da
ekonomikur, aramed samxedro daxmarebasac miiReben. miuxe­
davad imisa, rom ar arsebobs araviTari garantia imisa, rom
dasavleTi saqarTvelos an ruseTis nebismier sxva mezobels
aseT daxmarebas gauwevs, da arc am qveynebis natoSi gawevri­
anebis vadebia dadgenili, sagareo-politikuri kursis yvela
sxva alternativa maT sakuTari suverenitetis ruseTisgan
warmatebiT dacvis nakleb Sansebs sTavazobs.
ruseTis mier saqarTvelosa da ukrainis teritoriebis
samxedro okupacia da/an aneqsia, aseve rusi „samSvidoboebis“
moldovaSi yofna, ar unda gamoricxavdes am qveynebis nato­

11 “Ukrainian Parliament Ratifies Agreement Extending Russian Black Sea Fleet’s Presence
in Crimea,” Kyiv Post, 27.04.2010, www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/ukrainian-parlia-
ment-ratifies-agreement-extending--65103.html (18.01.2015)

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Si da/an evrokavSirSi gawevrianebis SesaZleblobas – ra­
sakvirvelia, im pirobiT, rom maTi mTavrobebi saxelmwifos
mSeneblobis, ekonomikuri ganviTarebisa da demokratizaciis
procesebs gaagrZeleben im teritoriebze, romlebsac akont­
roleben. saqarTvelo, ukraina da moldova natosa da evrokav­
Sirs sxvadasxva pirobaze SeiZleba SeuTanxmdnen, riTac maTi
am organizaciebSi integracia regionSi mSvidobis SenarCune­
basTan winaaRmdegobaSi ar mova. magaliTad, saqarTvelom da
ukrainam SeiZleba dadon piroba, rom natoSi maTi gawevri­
anebis SemTxvevaSi, Crdiloatlantikuri xelSekrulebis me-5
muxli, romlis Tanaxmadac „...[aliansis wevrebidan] erT-erTze
an ramdenimeze ganxorcielebuli SeiaraRebuli Tavdasxma ev­
ropasa da CrdiloeT amerikaSi yvelas winaaRmdeg Tavdasxmad
miiCneva“12 , ar gavrceldeba ruseTis mier maTi teritoriebis
samxedro okupaciisa Tu aneqsiis adrindel SemTxvevebze, anu
koleqtiuri Tavdacvis valdebuleba mxolod axali Tavdasx­
mis SemTxvevaSi warmoiSveba. am suliskveTebiT 2010 wlis 23
noembers, saqarTvelos maSindelma prezidentma mixeil saa­
kaSvilma, evroparlamentSi sityviT gamosvlisas, calmxrivi
piroba dado, rom saqarTvelo ar gamoiyenebs samxedro Zalas
ruseTis mier okupirebuli saqarTvelos teritoriis 20%-
is dasabruneblad da qveyana mxolod teritoriis danarCeni
80%-is Tavdacvis uflebas daitovebs.13 Tu ukrainis prezi­
denti petro poroSenko aseTive pirobas dadebs yirimTan da­
kavSirebiT, es ukrainis natosken swrafvas mxolod waadgeba.
civi omis Semdgomi msoflio wesrigi ruseTis mier 2014
wlis martSi yirimis aneqsiis Sedegad kidev erTxel Seirya.
es nabiji bevrad ufro Tavxeduri iyo, vidre ruseTis mier
2008 wlis agvistoSi saqarTvelos regionebis (afxazeTisa da
„samxreT oseTis“) damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad aRiareba.
Tu aSS, nato da evrokavSiri ruseTis agresiul qcevas misi
mezoblebis mimarT ar SeaCereben da amgvari qmedebebisTvis
Zalian maRal fasad ar azRvevineben, ruseTis Semdegi nabiji,
SesaZloa, aseTive strategiis natos SedarebiT patara wevre­
bze gamocda iyos, rogorebic baltiispireTis qveynebi arian.

12 Crdiloatlantikuri xelSekruleba, Crdiloatlantikuri xelSek­

rulebis organizacia, www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
(18.01.2015)
13 saqarTvelos Zalis argamoyenebis piroba, sivil jorjia, 23.11.2010,
www.civil.ge/geo/article.php?id=23377 (18.01.2015).

15